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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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19 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Placement the same?

As Superstorm's map shows, the spread is a little wider. The mean is a little further south in the W Caribbean due to a higher number of members in the SW Carib on the 6Z 144 (10) vs 0Z 150 (5).

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13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As Superstorm's map shows, the spread is a little wider. The mean is a little further south in the W Caribbean due to a higher number of members in the SW Carib on the 6Z 144 (10) vs 0Z 150 (5).

Looks like many members into the Yucatán 

 

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48 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Massive spread on the 6z EPS.

 

May come down to just how quickly this can organize over the next 72 hours. 

ecens_2022-09-20-06Z_144_24.38_268.69_5.109_310.659_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.thumb.png.43557199605ce1ae4199fa4555834fd8.png

 

Seems euro has been too far west all season and is always correcting back east to align with the GFS. If that's the case here, looking like the eastern Gulf Coast or Florida peninsula would be the target zone. 

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Off to the races today. 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201453
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly 
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central 
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located 
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better 
organized this morning.  Additional development is expected, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as 
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the 
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system 
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands 
beginning on Wednesday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 
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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm

Good observation, for example on 12z GFS the wind field is absolutely massive. This has been a consistent trend in modeling too, hasn't really been showing a small storm when it bombs out. 

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One of the most threatening storms from a model perspective I can remember in the last five or ten years.  Models forecasting a large and extremely intense recurving hurricane that would bring monster winds hundreds of miles inland.

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12z Euro about to tip-off shortly. I’ll try to post some paid maps since TT is having some issues it seems. 
 

I’m on a cruise from Port Canaveral to the northern coast of Haiti and then the Bahamas this coming Saturday - Thursday. So of course this is the biggest threat of the year :arrowhead:

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1 hour ago, Normandy said:

One of the most threatening storms from a model perspective I can remember in the last five or ten years.  Models forecasting a large and extremely intense recurving hurricane that would bring monster winds hundreds of miles inland.

Sorry to get off topic but I don't think anything will ever beat Irma from that perspective. That was consistent model runs for like a week all showing ~880 mb landfalls.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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