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shaggy

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  1. peak wind gust being reported by TWC was 75mph at Calvert Alabama. Thats a gust not sustained
  2. Y'all should see some decent rains from this if it hooks ENE like the gfs is suggesting.
  3. Still a miss with no bend back to the left near the coast. So unless the high is stronger and some of those further left ensemble members end up being right then she should brush the obx with TS conditions at worst.
  4. Looks like The eye went east for a frame or two and got roughly 72.6w before a hard left wobble and the center is almost entirely west of 73 now. Just the typical wobbles we see with hurricanes the general motion is still NNW to my eyes.
  5. Well per yesterday's nhc disco they will be getting some G4 flights in today out in front of Maria.I would guess if we don't see some changes after that then it's safe to say the threat is decreasing for hurricane conditions on the obx. Still think she gets close enough to give them TS force stuff.
  6. O6z doesn't have the left hook towards the coast so she stays a decent ways offshore.
  7. Nobody is expecting catastrophic damage. The orientation of our river systems is perfect for funneling water during storms. Even here inland I have watched the Tar river flow BACKWARDS as storms approach as the surge starts to build in. If you go to the NHC inundation maps for eastern NC even for a cat 1 you will see certain areas that are susceptible to big surges based on wind. In May of 2005 a nor'easter put 4-6 foot of surge into Adams creek. The highest recorded gust was 79mph on cedar island so it wasn't some big storm. Its not just about wind speed. Its about wind direction and duration. A stalled cat 1 in the right spot with a big wind field would cause massive flooding in some locations across NC.
  8. Jose is weaker than modeled and each run reflects that. The ridge is verifying a touch stronger than modeled. With the upper air data and G4 missions starting tonight we should see a clearer picture tomorrow.
  9. TS dennis stalled off hatteras for a few days and put more water in the pamlico river at Washington than any other storm. So even if it doesn't landfall the slow motion could still cause huge effects if it has a large enough wind field.
  10. That's quite a few members of the eps that hit west into eastern nc.
  11. I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon.
  12. But wouldn't that also mean the GFS was right in the longer range with that solution even if it does loose it for a while in the medium range? Who would we give the win to the GFS or sniffed it out first or the euro?
  13. The euro from a couple nights ago basically filled Jose and rebuilt the ridge and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW heading. The gfs was much stronger with Jose and looped him further south and basically had something similar to what the euro is showing now. If my memory of those runs are correct the models have seemingly switched solutions. It was the 0z run from Sunday that had the euro making landfall in NC and the gfs way out to sea.
  14. So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being.
  15. Not that this run of the gfs is a sure thing but a storm in that position for that long would fill the sounds and rivers up with a huge surge. TS Dennis sat out there for a few days in 1999 and the pamlico river at washington had 9 foot surge.