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shaggy

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    greenville,nc

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  1. shaggy

    TD5

    Hwrf never gets it sub 1000mb. Models are keeping this thing super weak and right now it's looking very good. Got to be a big headache for the NHC.
  2. shaggy

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Chips are stacked against Dorian at this point. Between the death zone, Hispaniola and the TUTT its gonna be hard for this to thread the needle. Seems like the shear has kept up longer than thought yesterday and then only real chance I thought it had was to deepen quickly and miss Hispaniola to the east.
  3. shaggy

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    500 mb ridging will remain strong enough to get Dorian into the eastern Caribbean and Antilles on a WNW heading regardless of TC intensity. Afterwards, western Atlantic ridging may be weaker allowing for a more NW to northern track. But Dorian may encounter Hispaniola as well. It's really too early to know or even guess how that will play out. That breakdown is also enough days out in modeling that it may not even occur. I was just looking at forecast track and thinking even a 50-100 mile shift to the north would remove shreddinola from a direct center crossing. PR looks to have issues no matter what but a miss of the bigger peaks would certainly allow it to hold intensity.......unless of course the mom models are right and theres not.much of a storm left when it gets there.
  4. shaggy

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    Was wondering how a short term burst in intensity or RI wouldt effect track. The consensus models are all weak so how would they react to a stronger system. Further north?
  5. shaggy

    TD5

    The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time. Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.
  6. shaggy

    TD5

    Lots of questions will be raised with overall track with TD5. Gfs basically brings it along the forecast track but kills it. If it's as strong as hurricane center says would that lead to a more northerly solution allowing it to avoid the big islands? Does it stay as weak as the gfs says and either dies or slides further southwest because it's so weak? Might be the first threat of the season from the deep tropics.
  7. shaggy

    August 2019 Obs

    I have been in the biggest screw zone the last 10 days. I'm 4 miles southwest of greenville in the 2nd lightest blue shading possible. I've gotten maybe .35 over the last 10 days while everyone around me has gotten inches worth.
  8. shaggy

    General Severe Weather

    Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating.
  9. shaggy

    TD5

    As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues.
  10. shaggy

    General Severe Weather

    12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run.
  11. shaggy

    TD5

    Based on current organization I could believe it. Bet its cherry red by the end of today. Think 20% over 5 days was way low on probabilities. Did Barry ever look this good lol?
  12. shaggy

    TD5

    99L has been designated and is looking very good this morning GFS brings it close but offshore the east coast and the EURO takes it to the keys. It appears this one will be in the threat zone for US impact possibilities. The tropics are awake finally.
  13. shaggy

    August 2019 Obs

    90/77 HI 104
  14. shaggy

    August 2019 Obs

    Some cool pics
  15. shaggy

    August 2019 Obs

    Pretty solid outflow here in pitt way in advance of the storms. PGV gusted to 37mph when the storms were still 20 miles west of them.
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