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shaggy

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  1. Nobody is expecting catastrophic damage. The orientation of our river systems is perfect for funneling water during storms. Even here inland I have watched the Tar river flow BACKWARDS as storms approach as the surge starts to build in. If you go to the NHC inundation maps for eastern NC even for a cat 1 you will see certain areas that are susceptible to big surges based on wind. In May of 2005 a nor'easter put 4-6 foot of surge into Adams creek. The highest recorded gust was 79mph on cedar island so it wasn't some big storm. Its not just about wind speed. Its about wind direction and duration. A stalled cat 1 in the right spot with a big wind field would cause massive flooding in some locations across NC.
  2. Jose is weaker than modeled and each run reflects that. The ridge is verifying a touch stronger than modeled. With the upper air data and G4 missions starting tonight we should see a clearer picture tomorrow.
  3. TS dennis stalled off hatteras for a few days and put more water in the pamlico river at Washington than any other storm. So even if it doesn't landfall the slow motion could still cause huge effects if it has a large enough wind field.
  4. That's quite a few members of the eps that hit west into eastern nc.
  5. I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon.
  6. But wouldn't that also mean the GFS was right in the longer range with that solution even if it does loose it for a while in the medium range? Who would we give the win to the GFS or sniffed it out first or the euro?
  7. The euro from a couple nights ago basically filled Jose and rebuilt the ridge and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW heading. The gfs was much stronger with Jose and looped him further south and basically had something similar to what the euro is showing now. If my memory of those runs are correct the models have seemingly switched solutions. It was the 0z run from Sunday that had the euro making landfall in NC and the gfs way out to sea.
  8. So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being.
  9. Not that this run of the gfs is a sure thing but a storm in that position for that long would fill the sounds and rivers up with a huge surge. TS Dennis sat out there for a few days in 1999 and the pamlico river at washington had 9 foot surge.
  10. Jose is falling apart recon says he is no longer a cane it may lead to weaker runs in the future so we will see how the models handle his earlier demise......if this weakening trend continues.
  11. Yep Jose needs to either dissipate and or move out of the way faster to allow that Ridge to build back. I'm really surprised at the amount of degradation he went through last night on satellite
  12. Pretty quick collapse of his presentation on satellite tonight. My guess is we will have a naked swirl in the morning as all deep convection has died and or been blown away. Was not expecting him to look this poor until he was further up the coast.
  13. We either need dissipation or for Jose to scoot east and allow the ridge to rebuild. One thing is for certain. Jose's satellite appearance just went to garbage in a quick minute. He is completely sheared out mess right now. It almost looks like he has become decoupled with the mid level center moving NE and LLC slowly moving north still. Its hard to tell without good visible imagery.
  14. Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.
  15. As long as they keep Jose doing the loop I think we see Maria go safely OTS. Doesn't matter for the Antilles as they are going to take another beating from a major cane again.