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About shaggy

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  1. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    They looked good 10 days ago for a big cool down first week or two of February and that changed and now we are pushing it out to second half of feb....experience tells me that when we start pushing out the big cold pattern change it's bad sign.
  2. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Would have liked to have seen the 3k back it up but it really didn' at all.
  3. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Slower and sharper with the trough keeps increasing our chances
  4. Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Us Pgv guys are getting the Raleigh screw job this go around. So 3 to 6 near Raleigh and now MHX comes out with this awesome disco for the coastal areas. Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere. Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.
  5. Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    I'm sitting in a 1 county wide WWA with WSW warnings either side of me. One side is the for the piedmonts bigger totals and the one east of me is for the coastal that gets going. I wish there was a way for this "deepening stronger cutoff" (per Raleigh NWS) to not die and lose the qpf so fast as it moves east.
  6. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Didn't like seeing that dryslot over between 95 and 17 but hey can't win them all and we scored on the jan 3rd storm so I hope you guys score on this one. The hi res models have improved for me tonight so maybe that trend keeps up at 6z runs too.
  7. Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    I'm sitting between the two higher snowfall totals on the Rgem. There's 3-6 to my west and now 3-5 to my east as it pulls the coastal ever so closer. I had around 4.5 to 5 inches on Jan 3rd so its not life or death for my season I've already scored. Would be nice to see that low kick off 30 more miles west though and get me into those higher potential totals.
  8. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    This could improve my totals hopefully. The RGem is close to throwing back some decent totals over me. Increased areas along highway 17 quite a bit and another 30 mile shift west on the coastal could put me in play for those totals. Hopefully if this digs further south and gets a better tilt it can pull that low closer to the coast for me.
  9. If current track holds true then la reunion will be in the path of a cat 3. Wonder how much rain they would get out of that?
  10. January Observations

    Personal station hit 6 this morning while pgv hit 9 o one obs but stayed at 10 most of the night. We have only been above freezing for maybe 4 hours on the 3rd before the snow. Not only has it been cold at night but low single digits and we tied our all time record. Just impressive.
  11. January Observations

    Mixing would be my guess. I noticed the same pattern did occur. We fluctuated a lot until 11pm then we went single digits and settled down and had much smaller changes. It was face stinging cold leaving work.
  12. January Observations

    Amazing temperatures coming out of SE Virginia. Wakefield is currently -10 and even as far south as Ahoskie,nc is -6. Several reporting stations locally are at 0-3 degrees.
  13. So I was sitting here at work bored freezing my butt off and went to the NCDC to research the years since Irene in 2011. So here are the reported tornadoes and subsequent tropical system activity. 2012 tornadoes 12 landfalls none 2013 tornadoes 5 landfalls none 2014 tornadoes 31 landfalls Arthur 2015 tornadoes 8 landfall Ana 2016 tornadoes 12 landfall Mathew along SC coast 2017 19 landfalls none This now makes 6 out of 7 years with 30+ tornadoes with a landfall later in the year. So averaging out the years with landfalls and the average tornado count is 34.8 and without landfalls is at 10. So 6 years later and the data and unscientific results are holding true.
  14. January Observations

    PGV did the same thing. We crashed to 10 degrees earlier and 20 minutes later we were up to 18. It hung out around there for an hour or so and has now crashed back down to 10. It did this last night as well until about 2 or 3 in the morning then it went down to low signle digits and floated between 0-5 degrres the rest of the night. Suspect the same will happen tonight. My house that registered -4 this morning was showing 5 degrees according to the wife. I'm stuck at work in a warehouse with no heat so its been a brutal week for me.
  15. January Observations

    down to 10 already