shaggy

Not the wpac but a beast none the less https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05S&product=ir

Is it just me or did the euro just initialize a full degree south and 8mb weaker than current position and strength?

Clearly the big concern is how bad of a hit Florida takes but for us up the east coast the re-emergence and subsequent 2nd landfall has become a real possibility. Not much unlike Floridas west coast the east coast is also subject to large landfall location shifts by just a few miles of change in track. Still lots in the longer range to be determined.

Little east of due north now as it feels the effects of land

EPS should be interesting

Yes. A southwest wind funding water into the bay creating a 8+ foot storm surge versus a North East wind blowing water out of the bay. Makes a huge difference.

Would be better for Tampa with that south landfall for storm surge but still a brutal hit.

Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves? Gefs spread has increased and now has a handful of members off the east coast. This is at 90 hours

Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves?

Anyone else seeing due north on sat images? Recon should give us a correct heading but it sure looks north

With the big blow up of deep convection just north of the center don't be surprised it if tucks north instead of west.

Anyone else seeing this move more NNW recently as well?

Yeah even though it's the icon there is still a very small that the icon and the ukmet and some eps members still float the slim chance this goes off the east coast of Florida or just along the coastline

So essentially the gefs mean matches that of the eps

Some gefs members break off and go the way of the euro/eps.