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Everything posted by shaggy

  1. Luckily it won't hit anything but theres a 140kt beast in the Indian ocean.
  2. Yeah the 12k nam 63 hour sounding over our neck of the woods is just bad. Hope its wrong.
  3. Yeah gonna be a big hit for Fiji. Hopefully the eye passes between the islands but either way it looks like someone takes the eyewall of a 130+kt cyclone.
  4. Yeah forecast to peak at 140kts and landfall at around 120kts. Gonna be a bad hit for Fiji.
  5. Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds.
  6. Been a relatively quiet season over there but newly formed typhoon looks to approach the Philippines as a strong cat 4 in a few days.
  7. Hrrr has shifted highest winds eastward in NC and now gets me right at 60mph gusts when earlier today it had me low to mid 40s.
  8. Not too shabby 5 hours post landfall
  9. Big flare up over the eastern core as it moves inland
  10. Most models keep me dry with really strong 925mb winds over central and eastern NC. If we get some sun and breaks in the clouds to aid mixing then we arent out of the woods here either.
  11. With the decent rate of forward speed hopefully we dont see surges as high as 12 to 16 feet. If this was a slower moving storm that had time to pile the water in then that 12 to 16 feet of surge would be easy.
  12. Has there ever been a clear eye on IR? Dont remember too many storms that got this strong and ever presented an eye on sat loops.
  13. Looks like icon is back barely east of the 0z run so I'd say the fat lady is singing on ole teddy. Should be a big beautiful hurricane to track but no threat to the US.
  14. Yeah I would have expected a special statement declaring landfall at X spot and time.
  15. Did they officially declare landfall with Paulette?
  16. Wind gust of 117mph at a station with 290ft of elevation.
  17. Euro is east again so just dont see any changes to this so another fish seems likely.
  18. Most of the island is gusting to hurricane force on the last obs cycle.
  19. Yeah decent shift west but still recurved. Need that 1035hp to somehow block it and send it west but just doesnt look like its gonna happen. East coast getting lucky this year.
  20. So that's a bit of a west shift between then18z gefs and 0z gefs.
  21. The fact she stayed way weaker than forecast has allowed her to meander more west. Remember she was suppose to become a hurricane and recurve on out in the east central Atlantic. It's this meandering that will most likely result in the greatly diminished threat from 95L. Early modeling had that posing a decent threat for the Conus. As it stands with this track from Rene it will keep the ridge from rebuilding and leave a weakness for 95L to jump in and safely recurve.
  22. Qith paulette and rene meandering in the middle of the Atlantic that makes perfect sense. If the ridge doesnt rebuild it cant come west.