shaggy
-
Posts
7,428 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by shaggy
-
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ukmet tends to have a W bias with tropical systems correct? I remember when the ukmet was the only model showing Irma reaching the north coast of Cuba. Winder where the other 12z suites will initialize their centers.
-
It's actually much more like an Irene impact over lookout and into the sounds. Doesnt matter it was one op run from 200+ hours out
-
Gfs op run doesn't seem to match its ensembles which are coming in with a strong signal for a storm to be threatening the northern islands so far. We will see what the rest of the run shows.
-
Icon and cmc at 0z are stronger(albeit not tbat strong) and more threatening to the islands
-
Going back throught my images I saved as I was focused on the larger CC drop and missed the one right at the house. Wasn't a clear circulation there as the bigger couplet was SE of.me. wonder if it was a satellite tornado on the edge of the bigger meso
-
Bout crapped my pants. Was out on the porch watching and listening for the larger vortex to my southeast when another circulation formed and dropped less than a mile from me. Confirmed both by radar and law enforcement down the road from me.
-
Still has it at 983 off cape fear so. Ot too far from my backyard although I don't expect much wind impact with that track
-
With her reluctance to move north in wonder if we get into a scenario where the trough leaves her behind a little as the models are hinting at just offshore. For practical impacts along the east coast inwonder if a slight miss by the trough equals less east turn and we see a closer to the coast track say Charleston to lookout or so?
-
Been moving more west short term
-
Gfs goes from landfall in the big bend to being over cape fear in 18 hours. That's pretty quick
-
I'm about 10 miles west off the beach at Wrightsville and about 15 miles north of Caswell beach now. Just moved down here a month ago.
-
I've recently relocated to the cape fear region and am curious as to what intensity it can bring up this way. It's steady forward motion and coast riding gives me hope for at least a few TS force gusts Thursday
-
He could have been a big hit if he was 500 miles west. The board would have been nuts of we had been looking at a Franklin east coast landfall followed by a gom landfall
-
So far dmax hasn't helped with new storm development yet. Was sort of thinking it had potential to really get going tonight but so far it's simmered down
-
Especially since there was little support from the gefs
-
A lot more noise on 06z gfs op and the gefs so far this morning
-
It's early August. In pre- 2000s we would be lucky to have 1 named storm by this point in the season.
-
Agreed
-
Agreed. I'd go lower as well. Doesn't really matter if the warm water helps big storms that subsequently have the roof blown off them.
-
Battle royal this year. El Nino versus bathwater SSTs. Who you got your money on?
-
Definitely not typical in June
-
I'd disagree with this on principle. Suee the Atlantic is above average and there will be plenty of warm water for storms to feed off of. That however doesn't IMO mitigate shear because if the shear due to strong El Nino is strong it will simply blow those strong storms apart.
-
Gfs called it way in advance as well
-
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=himawari9-meso&product=vis
-
You can see the mesovrticies already but I imagine when the sun comes up over there it's gonna be spectacular looking eye
