shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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I agree but the short term motion prior to any Fujiwara was also very wrong on those models. Nome of them has this thing stalled out in the southern Bahamas and near Cuba for 2-3 days straight
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Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one
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Better spin looks north of the island to me. Might take a while for a center to settle and write could see some jumps and relocations
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Would make sense there would be a weakness to 94ls east with 93L being so close. Think we would be having a different conversation with no 93 L in the picture
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Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.
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Solid bout of RI for Chido in the SW Indian ocean. Very impressive cyclone https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=04S&product=ir
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There's a small.village on the south end of a bay that is now in the western eyewall and will soon be in the eye. I'd bet they took a devastating storm surge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=25W&product=vis_swir
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You could fit the entire wind field of Oscar inside the eye of this one
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On the coast of NC we had very little weather other than some rotating supercells. This is one I managed to catch about 2 miles from my house. Decent wall cloud and a solid funnel for a weak rotation. It tried hard to put one down but never did I don't think
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Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes
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Gefs trending towards euro/ukie/icon
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Falling in better agreement with the euro
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Gfs is on an island right now. Icon furthest east and strongest. At this point a blend of the ukie/euro/cmc/icon seems reasonable
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It was first with the Texas landfall for Beryl
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Hoping that's incorrect. It seems overzealous with that much deepening that close to land but it would be a long 2 days for me if it verified
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My bet this was a cat 5 after the islands and may still be now
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We saw crazy pressure falls after the EWRC this morning. Winds responded and the last plane sampled a couple of hours ago and had 150mph cane. It's satellite presentation is impressive and has only gotten much better. The eye is nearly perfect and cleared out. We will likely never know but this is a good candidate to be upped to a cat 5 post-season (unless it's a cat 5 when next recon goes in).
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6mb drop between passes and it was at 150mph......question is did that represent the winds had already caught up to pressure falls or do we see this make a run a cat 5?
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Next pass coming up. Should be final pass before it passes the islands
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Some crazy winds on that last pass. May make a run at 150+
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Reed was all over it. Big stovepipe but he blew his car up and the chase is over but the cell is still going strong.
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Some crazy video of Dawson Springs area tornado
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Nice donut hole before it occluded
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There have been several very high end tornados this year
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The pressure gradient must have been insane for such a narrow tornado to have winds 200mph just 140 feet off the ground
