shaggy

Didn't take that long and it has turned hard right and is now Tornado warned.

Storms in west Texas look to be organizing and wouldnt be surprised to see some TWs soon from them

Yeah things have ramped up considerably over the last hour.

Just had a large tornado with that cell but no TW....they finally just issued it.

Yeah hope the local people were on their toes and listening to the warnings.

TC Fani is looking to threaten India as a strong hurricane in a few days. Projected landfall of 110kts as of the latest advisory.

So figured I would revisit this thread since it's been active so far this spring. Last year was the exception to our research. I only saw 6 confirmed tornados for last year and we had florence. Florence was an anomaly all of her ow though.

Looks solid hope people are taking it seriously

As it turns out cyclone Kenneth went through a period of RI and made landfall as 140mph storm. Strongest in Mozambique history.

Comoros island is seeing gusts to 75mph as a 100kt cyclone misses them just north. Gonna make a second landfall around 115kts tomorrow.

Had my son out front with the kestrel yesterday. He was getting in to it big time.

I'm feeling a little less concerned hear just east of that big batch of heavy rain here. Past experience says this much rain and clouds really hamper severe weather and even though the Windfields are insane lack of sun and a worked over atmosphere always give me pause when it comes to severe weather.

In my experience any time you have clouds and rain before the main storms are suppose to arrive the severity of the event is questionable. It takes a great setup to get widespread severe in those situations but it does and can happen. Just gonna be a wait and see kind of thing.

The nam was pretty bullish on a big set of supercells last weekend developing ahead of the front and it was worse case and it didnt happen. When I see such extreme solutions I always suspect it as being bogus.

a bunch of years ago we had a "heavy shower warning" as a line of non-thunderstorm showers moved through and actually produced gusts to 70mph in greenville. I remember it because I was on my in to work when the warning came over the radio and we got nailed. It was winter time too though. The wording out of MHX seems to suggest heavy showers will still be enough to mix the LLJ down to the surface Friday evening. There is a typo where he says thursday instead of Friday. Additionally, the primary band of prefrontal moisture convergence will cross the area Thursday night and even though instability will be somewhat limited, showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts as they readily mix the very strong LLJ winds to the surface.

Sounds like a windy day here in eastern nc friday even without the storms. A very strong LLJ (>60 kt around 925 mb) will develop across the area as the stacked low passes inland, riding northward along the Appalachian chain Friday and Friday night. LLJ winds will readily mix to the surface during the day, bringing strong/gusty winds, especially to coastal areas. A wind advisory or warning may be needed for at least some of the area. From a severe weather perspective: Instability is the question as a moist prefrontal airmass will keep skies cloudy and there is potential for showers ahead of the primary band of convection, both inhibiting factors for the development of surface based instability. Still, shear is strong enough to justify a continued slight risk of severe weather from SPC,

Still getting plenty of sun over the coastal plains.

We've had decent sun here east of I95 this morning so far.

yeah, yesterday Raleigh was bullish with intensifying nighttime storms and the spc is going the opposite way saying it should diminish overnight. Gonna have to see how the dynamics unfold today. Getting a few peaks of sun here in the coastal plains.

Traffic cam being shown on TWC showing minor damage in Troy Alabama

Nam is still showing a nice little explosion of semi discrete cells over the piedmont and coastal plains of NC tomorrow.

We were coming home from siler city on 64 and the amount of runoff just west of Raleigh was bad. Lots of flooding and it made the drive pretty miserable. Saw lots of small creeks out of their banks and I'm assuming it was nuese but a larger body was a whitewater but mostly red from the clay runoff.

Was on 421 on my way to siler city around 6pm and the rain was incredible.glad I wasnt going through there when this happened.

We were at jockeys ridge Saturday and it was so much windier on top of the dunes than even the parking lot. Wish I had my kestrel with me. It was pretty darn chilly too with waves of sea fog rolling past us.

Full sun has broke out and we jumped to 79/64 so we will see if this can fu these storms today.