shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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That's a horrible map for me in Pitt county lol. Literally snow over my house and rain just a few miles away. Even verbatim I'm right on the line and I suspect I'm getting my usual 33 and rain.
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I gave up on this a while back. I've got nothing to lose its gonna rain unless the storm trends colder. I'm keeping one eye on it but really rooting for you guys out west.
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I cant lose in this setup. Best place to be really. I'm all rain unless it trends south and colder. If it doesnt then nothing changes for me and I stay with my expected rain. Much rather be in this position than one where I'm expecting some insane totals only to get screwed like we did 2 years ago.
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It has continued to trend to the south and now looks to make a more sizable impact on the Philippines.
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Well next to worse case scenario for Saipan. They at least got the calm of the eye for a little bit. Worst case would have been in the eyewall for the entire time.
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It would be nice for Saipan if this westward motion were to continue for a few hours as that would certainly spare them the core but if it "wobbles" back north much at all then they could get the eyewall. Gonna be a very close call for them. Just an incredible looking storm right now.
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Looks like Saipan is going to take one bad hit. I'm sure their building codes are very strong but this is a very powerful storm.
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What a buzzsaw this one is turning out to be.
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Next sty in the making out there in the wpac. Looks great on sat already.
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Over 4300 houses and business were damaged and destroyed in New bern due to surge and wind. That is about as astonishing a number as one could conceive for a small town like new bern.
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That's a good thing correct? Tired of the rain and we aren't even flooding like those south of us.
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Anderson cooper has now been caught in that trap as well. Pics of him "standing" in waste high water but his crew on the road while he is down in a ditch. Disgraceful when so many people are dealing with the real life threatening issues they face to have these idiots sitting on the outskirts of the disaster taking it.
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Rumor is they are closing I95 at SC and Virginia borders to all incoming traffic except for relief efforts.
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The town of bath yesterday supposedly rose another 6 to 8 feet after this picture.
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Never though if be sitting here with a eye over Wilmington and not being worried it was headed north bit SOUTH. Take the radar in for minute and realize you are watching something that has never happened in recorded history.
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Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.
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She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me. The subtropical ridge to the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday
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She needs to turn wnw now to make landfall just north of ilm.
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If recon is finding pressure drops then I would expect at least maintaining or slight strengthening.
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Nightmare scenario for forecasting . Like you said a shift of 25 to 50 miles north will change the wind forecast for everyone in the central coastal plains to the piedmont.
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The eye is contracting now so it should be stronger again at 5pm.
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On this approach angle and slow crawl, the rivers inland will see hellacious surges. When the Pamlico starts to narrow from 4 miles wide to 2 miles wide over just a few miles the water will get piled up quickly. Places deeper inland like Chocowinity, Washington, Belhaven will see some of the worst surges.
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So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns.
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Not that I'm wishing anything bad on anybody else but if we weren't gonna see strong winds in interior coastal plains of NC and all we were gonna get is 20 inches of rain then I'm glad it makes the turn and goes west. Hopefully it will weaken rapidly just off the coast keeping just a small part of NC in the cat 3 winds.
