shaggy

Yea sitting here at PGV with individual model maximums all around me. Some south some north some west......who knows.

Mhx is saying all rain all day tomorrow for their NW counties. Either they are way off or the tools they use are showing then what we cant see. As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.

I've always hated the SREF but if there was ever a time I'm pulling for it then it's right now with this system.

I had 12 in the 2010 storm. Defitniely not accurate.

Never been a huge fan of this but it has me right close to that mix line but just north of it during the heavier stuff. I am hoping the nam is too high with the warm nose based on it's closer approach with the low.

What about PGV? We are flirting with that mix line hard.

My hope is that as the MHX office says the nam is just too close to the coast with the low. If that can be another 40 to 50 miles south dropping that warm nose back to the southern coastal plains then central eastern coastal plains get more snow less mixing. This is one time we need the low to blend with the amped nam and the suppressed euro and meet in the middle.

Which oddly was what what the euro was showing first. Very odd to see everything trend to the euro then the euro drop it. Ninja'd ^^^^

Best look of the year. Agreement and consistency between the models is huge and we are slowly gaining some agreement. Now we need to work on consistency.

Went from 81 at the 12:15 obs to 63 an hour later.

Theres plenty of big dog coastal lows on the ensemble. I'll take the state wide 2+ footer. That member is just pure eye candy.

I believe the snowfall maps showed nothing at all for us. EDIT: yup nothing

Pgv randomly reporting this morning but has an official gust to 54mph.

I've just had my strongest gusts over the last 30 minutes. Pretty easily 50ish if not higher. Lots of neighbors gonna have shingle problems as they are being flipped and coming off. Even tore up my neighbors vinyl trum at the end of the video. Sorry about the audio.

Wind here in pitt county every bit as bad if it worse than we had with Dorian. Had a 47mph gust on my kestrel. My little boy is loving it

It is nice to see you pop up here again. I know I miss the old chase threads but understand the switch to Twitter. You can reach so many more people. I just need to sign up for Twitter so I can follow icyclone. Right now my wife follows you so I just use her account to follow your chases. Hope you enjoyed the holiday season and that things are good!

I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always.

Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri

Typhoon Kamurri forecast to have winds of 130kts as it starts to close in on the Philippines.

Looks like the euro and gfs being a strong typhoon into the Philippines. It's already ramping up nicely and could overperform

Good thing cyclone Kyarr is not going to threaten anyone as it has gone into beast mode.

Just looking st some snapchat videos at abaco and noticed there was a cruise ship sailing around the southern part of the island full of people having a blast. Impervious to humanitarian crisis going on 50 miles away.

Anyone find it sad that the bahamian officials are saying not all the dead died due to the storm? Perhaps some social unrest as thats been reported as well. Horrible situation.

We were at 21 tornadoes this year so that put us at an elevated risk according to this theory and of course we had a landfall.

Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating.