shaggy

My TS states 40-50 with gusts to 65. Going to be interesting to see how it approaches the coast.

From Raleigh nws. Late Thursday night Hurricane Dorian will be located just northeast of Cape Fear, NC with dangerous winds continuing across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills of North Carolina. Some impacts could be significant with possible damage to roofing and siding materials. Rainfall totals from Dorian will be 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. On the northwestern edge of Dorian rainfall amounts will quickly fall off due to dry air being entrained from an approaching cold front. For example, amounts across the Triad will likely only be a couple of hundredths of an inch with 1 to 3 inches possible over the Triad.

And he is evacuating again. This makes 4 years in a row.

Angle of landfall if one occurs is so crucial. Big difference if a storm comes in around cale fear moving NNE or one that clips cape fear moving ENE. Changes the weather for alot of people.

0z and 6z were the same for the gfs. Too close for comfort. Another 50 miles NW and you have a floyd type track inland. Of course climo says recurve and the other models are offshore.

If the euro were to come north instead of stalling the ridge to its east would have a little less time to break down and he might just get another 100 miles north or so. Fine details will matter a lot over the next 5 days.

GEFS should be interesting. At 0z it appears the high went from being centered just northwest of bermuda to northeast of bermuda. This allows the storm to start turning and it hits Georgia. A slightly weaker ridge and that turn could happen just a touch sooner and get it up the coast. This ridge placement and strength is gonna be the big question the next 2 to 3 days.

Just cant see this one coming north of Florida unless major changes in the mid range occur. Shouldn't be a landfall problem for SC/NC but maybe a later rain threat if it crosses inland a few days after landfall

Still time for changes but that window is shrinking for such large scale features. The ridge simply needs to be overdone by a decent amount to allow this to miss Florida.

Part of me says keep a close watchful eye on Dorian here in NC but the models are adamant he takes that sharp left. They were also adamant he would hit the greater antilles and they missed horribly. Once the high starts to take shape and we can get some G-4 flights sampling we can still have major model changes. Once that data starts if it still pulls the sharp left then I think our chances go way way down.

Little ticks north in the models. Wouldnt shut Dorian out of our minds here just yet.

I've seen plenty of storms with their plot over Florida and then as it approaches that curves up the coast to threaten my area. Floyd, Mathew a bunch. This time that's going to be much harder as that ridge shuts the door. East coast of Florida ala Jeanne and frances comes to mind.

Hwrf never gets it sub 1000mb. Models are keeping this thing super weak and right now it's looking very good. Got to be a big headache for the NHC.

The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time. Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.

Lots of questions will be raised with overall track with TD5. Gfs basically brings it along the forecast track but kills it. If it's as strong as hurricane center says would that lead to a more northerly solution allowing it to avoid the big islands? Does it stay as weak as the gfs says and either dies or slides further southwest because it's so weak? Might be the first threat of the season from the deep tropics.

I have been in the biggest screw zone the last 10 days. I'm 4 miles southwest of greenville in the 2nd lightest blue shading possible. I've gotten maybe .35 over the last 10 days while everyone around me has gotten inches worth.

Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating.

As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues.

12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run.

Based on current organization I could believe it. Bet its cherry red by the end of today. Think 20% over 5 days was way low on probabilities. Did Barry ever look this good lol?

99L has been designated and is looking very good this morning GFS brings it close but offshore the east coast and the EURO takes it to the keys. It appears this one will be in the threat zone for US impact possibilities. The tropics are awake finally.

90/77 HI 104

Some cool pics

Pretty solid outflow here in pitt way in advance of the storms. PGV gusted to 37mph when the storms were still 20 miles west of them.

Hrrr is uninspiring.