shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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Mawar sat image is reminiscent of Dorian
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Beast mode https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir
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Yeah unless we see that eye clearing out again I'd say strengthening is unlikely before Guam
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Decent recovery ongoing on sat imaging in the northern eyewall
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That eye is clear and it's a beast. 140kts just prior to landfall as predicted with a pass over the island. Gonna be rough rode for them.
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It took a while but it's ramping up nicely now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir
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Shifted south now to rake Guam with a northern eyewall as it passes as a strong cat 3. A few more shifts would spare them that type of hit but they should see a good hit regardless.
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Not the wpac but a beast none the less https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05S&product=ir
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Is it just me or did the euro just initialize a full degree south and 8mb weaker than current position and strength?
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Clearly the big concern is how bad of a hit Florida takes but for us up the east coast the re-emergence and subsequent 2nd landfall has become a real possibility. Not much unlike Floridas west coast the east coast is also subject to large landfall location shifts by just a few miles of change in track. Still lots in the longer range to be determined.
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Little east of due north now as it feels the effects of land
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EPS should be interesting
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Yes. A southwest wind funding water into the bay creating a 8+ foot storm surge versus a North East wind blowing water out of the bay. Makes a huge difference.
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Would be better for Tampa with that south landfall for storm surge but still a brutal hit.
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Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves? Gefs spread has increased and now has a handful of members off the east coast. This is at 90 hours
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Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves?
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Anyone else seeing due north on sat images? Recon should give us a correct heading but it sure looks north
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With the big blow up of deep convection just north of the center don't be surprised it if tucks north instead of west.
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Anyone else seeing this move more NNW recently as well?
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Yeah even though it's the icon there is still a very small that the icon and the ukmet and some eps members still float the slim chance this goes off the east coast of Florida or just along the coastline
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So essentially the gefs mean matches that of the eps
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Some gefs members break off and go the way of the euro/eps.
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Placement the same?
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Anyone notice the 18z ensembles of other the eps and gefs. had more members slowing or stalling her around bermuda? Would be bad news for them if it stalled in their area
