shaggy

Big flare up over the eastern core as it moves inland

Most models keep me dry with really strong 925mb winds over central and eastern NC. If we get some sun and breaks in the clouds to aid mixing then we arent out of the woods here either.

With the decent rate of forward speed hopefully we dont see surges as high as 12 to 16 feet. If this was a slower moving storm that had time to pile the water in then that 12 to 16 feet of surge would be easy.

Has there ever been a clear eye on IR? Dont remember too many storms that got this strong and ever presented an eye on sat loops.

We were at Carolina beach near Wilmington back in June. It was a wet week with a ULL to our southwest and we had a long onshore flow. It chewed that beach to pieces and I knew it was gonna be bad of we got a cane. Luckily Iseias wasnt too bad of a storm.

Already upgraded to STY. Took awhile but the wpac has put out 2 monsters this week.

Typhoon Haishan now forecast to peak at 140kts

Yeah it's pretty neat to track and follow.

Hmmm brick on to something?

The numbers over the course of 9 years are holding up. Also had Bertha into SC so this is 2 strikes on the carolinas.

Yeah it was a hot one but humidity was tolerable.

So i found 3 storm reports updated on the SPC storm reports late for Feb 6th. They were EF-1 for both gates and Stanley counties and an ef-0 for Randolph county. There were still 4 other reports from Feb 6th that I havent found a survey for and those were Gaston, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, and Gaston counties. This makes 15 confirmed tornados and 4 others reports I havent found surveys on yet.

Still looking for total tornado counts from NC from the Feb outbreak but we had 12 on Monday.

Tomorrow still looking quite worrisome for the piedmont/coastal plains areas.

I'm in greenville NC and pulled this sounding just as the storms hit here. Ot sure I've ever seen SRH levels above 500 m2 s2 here.

I'm off on Monday and with us having a slightly later in the morning event I may chase near home If it's safe and my home isn't threatened. Not sure we see enough discrete cells here for any major tornado outbreak but it might not take much to get a few out of this setup.

Looks ominous for the deep south again. A little less concerned here in the coastal plains due to timing. Hope people are paying attention.

I'm assuming it's real. https://youtu.be/OVKlRSElrUk

Couple videos have surfaced just waiting to see if they are legit or not.

Havent broke 32 yet with the snow cover. Overnight low was 20 but our forecast high was 40. Will be intrested in what we crash to tonight.

Very photogenic. Classic paste bomb that stuck to trees and encased them in snow.

Did ok here.

Yea sitting here at PGV with individual model maximums all around me. Some south some north some west......who knows.

Mhx is saying all rain all day tomorrow for their NW counties. Either they are way off or the tools they use are showing then what we cant see. As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.

I've always hated the SREF but if there was ever a time I'm pulling for it then it's right now with this system.