shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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This one escalated quickly. Just upped the winds to 135kts and has landfall sooner. Not sure of the population where its headed but it could be really bad.
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TC Fani is looking to threaten India as a strong hurricane in a few days. Projected landfall of 110kts as of the latest advisory.
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Tornados count relationship to hurricanes in NC
shaggy replied to downeastnc's topic in Southeastern States
So figured I would revisit this thread since it's been active so far this spring. Last year was the exception to our research. I only saw 6 confirmed tornados for last year and we had florence. Florence was an anomaly all of her ow though. -
As it turns out cyclone Kenneth went through a period of RI and made landfall as 140mph storm. Strongest in Mozambique history.
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Comoros island is seeing gusts to 75mph as a 100kt cyclone misses them just north. Gonna make a second landfall around 115kts tomorrow.
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In my experience any time you have clouds and rain before the main storms are suppose to arrive the severity of the event is questionable. It takes a great setup to get widespread severe in those situations but it does and can happen. Just gonna be a wait and see kind of thing.
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The nam was pretty bullish on a big set of supercells last weekend developing ahead of the front and it was worse case and it didnt happen. When I see such extreme solutions I always suspect it as being bogus.
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a bunch of years ago we had a "heavy shower warning" as a line of non-thunderstorm showers moved through and actually produced gusts to 70mph in greenville. I remember it because I was on my in to work when the warning came over the radio and we got nailed. It was winter time too though. The wording out of MHX seems to suggest heavy showers will still be enough to mix the LLJ down to the surface Friday evening. There is a typo where he says thursday instead of Friday. Additionally, the primary band of prefrontal moisture convergence will cross the area Thursday night and even though instability will be somewhat limited, showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts as they readily mix the very strong LLJ winds to the surface.
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Sounds like a windy day here in eastern nc friday even without the storms. A very strong LLJ (>60 kt around 925 mb) will develop across the area as the stacked low passes inland, riding northward along the Appalachian chain Friday and Friday night. LLJ winds will readily mix to the surface during the day, bringing strong/gusty winds, especially to coastal areas. A wind advisory or warning may be needed for at least some of the area. From a severe weather perspective: Instability is the question as a moist prefrontal airmass will keep skies cloudy and there is potential for showers ahead of the primary band of convection, both inhibiting factors for the development of surface based instability. Still, shear is strong enough to justify a continued slight risk of severe weather from SPC,
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Was on 421 on my way to siler city around 6pm and the rain was incredible.glad I wasnt going through there when this happened.
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We were at jockeys ridge Saturday and it was so much windier on top of the dunes than even the parking lot. Wish I had my kestrel with me. It was pretty darn chilly too with waves of sea fog rolling past us.
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We broke out around 10am in the coastal plains and the temp jumped up fast. Still under mostly full sun with a few high clouds at times. HRRR has cone around to showi g a better line of storms so we will see if these inhibiting factors can be overcome.
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Veronica is looking nasty and it's amazing how well trevor held together. He should reorganize quickly once he is away from land.
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The kid is saying he was befriended by a purple bear for 2 days while he was out there or so it's been leaked. Story gets stranger by the hour.
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Anyone else questioning the story of the missing 3yr old boy in craven county? I know 2 guys that went down to help search. They both said their were hundreds of people looking. Multiple helicopters including 2 state trooper ones with FLIR and 6 trained dogs that never struck his scent. He was found only 1/4 mile from his yard. Seems that many people,dogs and helicopters would have seen or heard him. Add that he was found following a "tip" it all seems odd. He went missing Tuesday wearing just a jacket and was missing for 55 hours? 12 of those hours were below freezing with 4 hours in the teens. A 30lb 3 year old surviving that is either the most incredible story or there is something amiss here.
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Its winter in the southeast. Yeah we do occasionally get snowstorms but not regularly. Anyone from rdu tonthe west can save their tears. They had an epic storm already. I had 4 inches in that one with huge raging flakes when I was expecting an hour or two of light snow before the switch. Sit back and see how this all unfolds. Almost everyone is already above average for the year....how much can we complain about that?
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MHX is dangling a carrot for us folks just east of I95. Either way I'm expecting little to nothing but its possible this could be a couple inches higher in totals if these models they list are correct. ...High pressure to the north will strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC. This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston, Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these counties. We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain.
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First time I remember seeing that type of snow totals down to the sounds and down towards new bern. Probably wont happe but it's enough to keep me intrigued.
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Seems expanded east towards the coast also doesnt it?
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This is really the only model showing me getting more than anything other than some onset stuff before going to all rain. I'm in western pitt county in the 5 inch zone but not far from the 11 inches in Wilson county. In no way do i expect this to be correct but its something that will tarnish the Fv3 when it takes over. Its snowfall outputs will forever be questioned if its wrong. We will no longer be getting nam'd but Fv3'd!!
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This has been a good storm for me to track. Never was in the game for anything so any frozen precip I might see is a bonus and if it busts it can only bust to the up side which we all know doesn't ever happen east of RDU anymore.
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Living east of 95 it as been a problem in almost every storm we've had here. Only 1 or 2 storms do I ever remember remaining all snow.
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The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.
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That's a horrible map for me in Pitt county lol. Literally snow over my house and rain just a few miles away. Even verbatim I'm right on the line and I suspect I'm getting my usual 33 and rain.
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I gave up on this a while back. I've got nothing to lose its gonna rain unless the storm trends colder. I'm keeping one eye on it but really rooting for you guys out west.
