shaggy

However the GEFS so far is weaker and further west versus the 00z GEFS

18z gfs is very active long term

Gfs op run has no ensemble support

Gfs through 66 is stronger and slower east of the Antilles so we will see what effects a stronger solution along with what you've already showed on the tilt having the ability to move this north of the big islands.

Shear may also impart track adjustments if the upper level vector is southwesterly. I'd stay it's not a horribly confident track position for the DR/Haiti at this stage. I'd be more inclined to see some slight poleward adjustments if the LLC gets tugged north of west downstream. Of course that relies on there being persistent deep convection. Long way to go. May be over the DR or might get tugged slightly north of the GAs. Patience will be a virtue watching this track verify. Given the model mayhem with this one it's gonna be a headache for the forecasters no doubt. Going to be interesting to say the least.

06 GeFs is far more active with it.

Hate to be in their shoes with the models having little to no consensus between them

It doesn't look horrible. Hard to get angood grasp on any singular idea as the models are pretty much across the spectrum like you said from some ensemble members having a hurricane to some not developing it at all. Let's see how well it sustains during DMIN today.

The models take the new typhoon Muifa to just east of Taiwan very near Ishigakijima Island and stalls it for 4 to 5 days. Would be a rough ride.

I noticed that slower camp on the gefs left it behind and turned it west again. It would be something to watch in real time if he is slower to lift out than modeled. That would be a nod to those ensemble members but it's not something thats likely to happen.

Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model.

Looks better tonight on the northern end. Consensus still has it hit the breaks and turn sharply OTS.

@GaWx I notice a slight increase in western tracks for the gefs at 18z. They still miss but that sort of adds a slight hesitation of a full write off of this system.

In all honesty we need a quiet season after the last several years.

Still a long ways to go on this one but the overall model trend has been towards a far less threatening scenario than the first series of runs a few days ago.

12z gfs is a carbon copy on track from its previous runs.

Until we get a system center and we start getting frequent GIV missions to sample the atmosphere it's still a toss up. We should have a system in SW Atlantic within threatening distance but whether it really threatens or recurve is still a pretty large unknown

The models are just worlds apart with this system. Let's see which one runs the most consistency.

1996. Eduardo and Fran comes to mine just a different orientation as Eduardo recurved first and Fran hit

One concerning point is that while the 06z run still recurves on the OP the GEFS is much further west

Madagascar going to take a big hit and then the models repeat a week or so later

Madagascar looks like it's gonna take a hit from a cst 3

I like the interaction with the island and how the eye seems to bounce off if it. Sadly that left them in the eyewall for a long time.

Now up to 155kts. Pure beast mode