shaggy

If current track holds true then la reunion will be in the path of a cat 3. Wonder how much rain they would get out of that?

So I was sitting here at work bored freezing my butt off and went to the NCDC to research the years since Irene in 2011. So here are the reported tornadoes and subsequent tropical system activity. 2012 tornadoes 12 landfalls none 2013 tornadoes 5 landfalls none 2014 tornadoes 31 landfalls Arthur 2015 tornadoes 8 landfall Ana 2016 tornadoes 12 landfall Mathew along SC coast 2017 19 landfalls none This now makes 6 out of 7 years with 30+ tornadoes with a landfall later in the year. So averaging out the years with landfalls and the average tornado count is 34.8 and without landfalls is at 10. So 6 years later and the data and unscientific results are holding true.

The snow here for me was average. Picked upwards of 4-5 inches but this cold stretch has been impressive. We have not been above freezing but for just a couple hours on wednesday before the snow. Almost all the ponds are frozen and we don't look to go above freezing till monday with lows projected at mid single digits the next 2 nights.

After the hi res models showed me at 12+ for so many runs i started to believe. Now I'll be lucky to see 3 inches in afraid. I'm about 5 miles southwest of pgv and will likely flirt with the sharp cutoff.

I felt real good yesterday for 4 to 8 but being 5 miles west of pgv I now have that feeling I've said so many times. The feeling of a good solid storm evaporating at the last minute. I can only sit back and watch what happens now. The whole time I hear how dominate the hi res models are and yet in the end they trended to the anemic totals the globals had ran for days on end.

I hope you guys get in on the game as long as its from precip expansion and not low shifting too much to the left. Us eastern guys got shafted in December and need some redemption.

usually I am sitting on the edge worrying if I am gonna get rain or snow and this time I am worrying if I am too far west. I hate winter storm threats.

I am not at all upset with this outcome right now. Euro had me with a foot of snow for the 8th and 9th event several days ahead of the storm. I got 40 and rain. I don't want to be in a bullseye this far out. Suppression is better than being on the rain snow line and it can only change for the better and if it doesn't who cares I wasn't expecting anything anyways.

With last weeks active storms and several tornados does anyone have a confirmed tornado count so far this year? We should be somewhere around 10-13 I think if I remember correctly.

Making landfall soon and has winds of 125kts.

It was forecast to be 6 to 12 in raleigh but a wave the day before shoved the baroclinic zone further offshore and moved the low development further east. TWC had crews in rdu and Winston Salem and they got zipped. Sun was out at WS and east of 95 got thumped. Great write up on how and why it busted on rah past events page.

I wonder what brick did in 2000 when Jim Cantore was In raleigh and had flurries while we were getting a foot down east. That was a bust of my lifetime right there.

So for 3 days the Euro ran suppressed and weaker than the GFS. Now they have really just switched positons to a large degree and now that the GFS essentially caved to the euros early runs the GFS is bunk and the euro is right now that its switched to a more amped solution... Got to love tracking winter storms.

Wouldn't it be great for a large area of Georgia, SC and NC to all get 3-6 inches. Then it could warm up to spring time temps and I wouldn't care

yeah im right there with ya being in eastern NC. Early phase and i'll likely see mixed bag or all rain. I need the models to stay south and strung out until a later phase.

How often is it that we have to worry about suppression and a possible earlier phase (if that Michigan wave interacts too soon) all in the same storm.

wpc doesn't bolster much hope either. Their disco pretty much goes with a sheared out mess with no real chance at anything significant per current modeling.

Pretty rapid intensification on nock-ten and he's now sitting at 130kts

Nock-ten has popped a pretty clear eye all of a sudden. Anyone else think this gets to a stronger storm than currently projected?

I went from Jan 1st through June 30th of all the years I looked at. I stopped at June 30th to prevent any contamination from tropical systems making landfall. I searched NCDC for my info. Once we get back into the 70's tornado reports drop considerably and many were probably not reported like they have been in the last 30 years or so. There were 17 years without a landfalling tropical system. The average tornado count between Jan 1st and June 30th for those non-landfalling years is 8.8 tornado confirmations(doesn't mean there weren't more that went unreported). Of the landfalling years which equaled 9 years the average number of tornado confirmations was 28.4 for NC. If you add this year to the numbers we have 65 tornadoes on the NCDC site http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms that I am using and that increases the average to 32.1 for years with landfalling tropical systems. Years that have had landfalls 32.1 average years without 8.8. Not scientific but the numbers speak pretty clearly......feel free to provide me evidence that my numbers are wrong.

Thanks. It started out as just a casual conversation between me and downeast(we're brothers) and it just kinda went from there. As we found more interesting numbers the more we looked into it. This now makes 5 out of 6 years with 30+ tornadoes in the spring with subsequent landfalling tropical systems.

A little more breakdown by the numbers: Of the years where 30+ tornadoes were confirmed we have 1984 with 34 T's and Hurricane Diana 1996 with 31 T's and Bertha/Fran 1998 with 54 T's and Bonnie 2008 with 45 T's and Ernesto 2009 with 31 T's No storm Thats 80% of those years with a subsequent landfall. The only year that didn't 2009 was a down year for the tropics with a well below avg of just 8 named storms. Next group of numbers is 20-30 Tornadoes and that was one year only 1989 with 24 T's Hurricane Hugo Next group 14-20 tornadoes 1991 with 17 T's No landfall(close call with bob) 1999 with 14 T's Dennis/Floyd 2000 with 19 T's No storm 2003 with 17 T's Isabel 2004 with 19 T's Charley 2006 with 18 T's Hanna So thats 4 out of 6 years with landfalling storms. We are currently sitting in the over 30 T's range for the year so that puts us in the highest % for POSSIBLE tropical action this year.

It has been brought to my attention that while I focused on NC landfalls only the SE did in fact sustain a hit in 1989 which had an elevated tornado number. Hugo was in that year and struck SC instead of recurving into NC.

Well I was afraid of going outside of that sample size because of the possibility that alot of tornadoes in the 50's-60's and 70's may have gone unreported or were reported as straightline wind damage. With the increase in basic observations of the general public and dopplar radars the tornado data is much more reliable over the last 25 years. The numbers are interesting and I guess we will see what happens come hurricane season but just found it very interesting. We are over 30 tornadoes this year already so this will be a good year to see if this possible correlation holds up.

Heres my best shot at running some stats off the NCDC stats page. Any of you guys that are better with statistics than I am please feel free to correct me if I have made an error somewhere ok here are the numbers using the NCDC storm event pages stats. I used Jan 1st to June 30th as my sample dates. Of the years we have seen landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in NC we saw 8 years since 1984. Those years are 1984- Diana 1996- Bertha/Fran 1998-Bonnie 1999- Dennis/Floyd 2003-Isabel 2004-Charley 2006-Ernesto 2008-Hanna In those 8 years we had a total of 232 tornadoes with an avg of 29 a year. In the other 18 years of no tropical landfalls we have a total of 174 tornadoes and an avg of only 9.6 a year. This number is thrown off by 2 of those years that saw high tornado counts in 1989 with 24 and 2009 with 31. So those 2 years account for 55 out of the 174 total. 2009 only had 8 named tropical systems all year as well. 4 out of the 8 years with tropical landfalls had years with 30+ plus tornadoes. IMO there seems to be a pattern of more tropical activity in general for NC when we have an active spring with lots of tornadoes.