cstrunk

Quite a bit of sunshine today, a humid airmass, and relatively strong low level winds make today seem like a stronger risk for severe weather this afternoon in East Texas than many other days that have been cloudy/less windy.

7.78" of rain measured at my house in a 22 hour period from 9:30 pm Monday night through 7:30 pm Tuesday night.

These training storms are making it awfully hard for me to get back home... (Flight to DFW and then GGG, the latter of which has already been cancelled).

Holy 12z HRRR helicity swaths for NW/northern TX this afternoon...

That's just Reed doing Reed things. He acts that way for three reasons. 1) He has an insane passion for severe weather. 2) He knows that he can hype ANYTHING to generate more clicks, views, ratings, etc. which generates him money. 3) He has a screw loose in his head. But whatever you say about him, the dude just gets it done more often than not.

Beautiful tornado warned supercell with very strong rotation just north of Guthrie, TX.

Messy storm mode in ETX killed the threat.

Big ol ETX bust is what I see.

Grunge-fest in progress along and east of I-35. We'll see how the activity reacts to the strengthening wind profiles into the evening.

The East Texas and Louisiana threat looks pretty dang messy and will be in questionable to poor chase terrain. The extreme NW Texas threat looks like a pretty good bet to at least see 2-3 isolated supercells. The tornado threat may be a tad bit lower but from a storm chasing perspective, that's where I would target.

3.76" of rain over the last week has been nice since models had been showing quite a bit less. Hopefully the rest of Texas is cashing in, or can sooner rather than later.

There may also be some action in the central plains towards the last few days in April.

06z GFS is showing potential for the 4/23-4/28 timeframe.

I guess they decided that the Euro wasn't the model to follow after all (or maybe the Euro caved)? This update lines up with what the NAM and HRRR are showing.

Latest HRRR, NAM 3K NEST, and GFS don't seem to support the threat around DFW and southward. Mostly seems to develop a MCS in SE OK that bows southeast overnight.