cstrunk

Maybe we'll get lucky but it sounds like we'll just get lots of cold rain...

So much junk... moderate risk what?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0018.html Largest mesoscale discussion ever? LOL

Nothing staying or getting very organized in Texas, still.

I'm keeping an eye on the strengthening showers in the Tyler, TX area in the warm sector to see if they can become organized.

Clouds are socked in pretty good now across the TX/LA threat region...

Already have breaks in the low level clouds at my location in Longview, TX. Will be something to watch - if we can get temperatures higher than forecast it will up the ante a bit.

It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional. More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself. It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter.

Yeah I think this is worth highlighting - we'll have at least a handful of tornado reports but like always in this region, storm mode is king, and will be the difference in determining if this is a memorable vs. a unremarkable event.

The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week.

Crazy to see this kind of wording at Day 5. Lots of time for changes.

Brrrr. I'm surprised it's this cold already and it's not even officially winter.

Confirmed tornado near Fairplay, TX (9 mi west of Carthage). This pic shared on local news recently.

Tornado warning Panola County TX.

I ended up with 0.6" rain at my house, more than I thought!