cstrunk

No rain last week and nothing in the forecast for this week. The real summer has finally arrived. Highs forecast in the upper 90's. Guess it's time to break out the sprinkler!

Storms later yesterday morning ahead of a July 31 cold front (say what??) brought about 1.05" of rain in about 30 minutes. Chances of rain for the next week look pretty slim with drier air moving into the region.

A couple showers last week added up to about 0.25" but yesterday I cashed in on 0.55" from a strong shower produced by the enhanced sea breeze from one of Hanna's outer bands. Another wave is headed this way this afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday (mostly overnight) I finally cashed in. I measured 3.25" in my rain gauge. Pretty crazy how wet we have been over the last week or so. I'm glad I finally got a really good rain since the Texas furnace is about to start crankin'.

Continuing the trend of getting just enough rain, but missing out on much bigger amounts. I got about 0.1" Friday evening and 0.75" early this morning. About 10 miles away NWS Shreveport noted a measurement of 6.43" from just this morning...

I ended up getting 0.7" in my rain gauge yesterday evening. Just narrowly missed much heavier downpours that would have given me double the amount or more, but I'll take it! The NWS forecast seems much more optimistic than the QPF predicted by WPC over the next few days. We have 40-50% rain chances each day through Friday, and then 30% chances Saturday and Sunday. WPC's graphics show dry conditions Friday-Sunday.

The DFW metro sure has been lucky with getting some really nice rains the last few days. Not so lucky here in Longview - yet. Chances of rain continue through the weekend.

I got lucky on a few days ago and picked up 0.35" at my house, enough to avoid watering. The forecast for the next week looks favorable for rain as well. We drove to Fort Worth last night as the MCS was rolling in, it blew our Toyota around pretty good on 635.

Looks like the first real week of heat will be arriving in Texas next week with mid-90's in the forecast and dry conditions. We've been doing pretty well with receiving rain this spring in east Texas... but it looks like I'll have to start watering my lawn next week.

Ended up getting ~40-45 mph gusts, a bit of pea-size hail, and 2.2" of rain from the complex that moved through my backyard.

Now 3 tornado warned storms near the red river.

SBCAPE is 2500+ in the area SE of Dallas, but dewpoints are still in the low-60's while surface temperatures are in the low-mid-80's. 60-75 knots effective bulk shear might be too much.

I was wrong about what I thought was the cumulus field on satellite earlier. There is an actual cumulus field deepening on the south side of DFW. I think initial storm development in TX may be just southeast of Dallas. SPC Mesoanalysis shows 2000+ SBCAPE, 200+ ESRH, 60+ knots effective bulk shear, and low 60's dewpoints in this area.

The southern threat area from that model runs lines up with the deepening cumulus field east of DFW. Dewpoints are still struggling, with many locations stuck in the upper 50's.

I agree the biggest threat will be right along the warm front near the Red River towards Texarkana. Storms south of there seem to struggle on the latest HRRR runs.