cstrunk

It's hot and dry... this week doesn't look much different, although temperatures should be in the mid-90's compared to the 100's over the last few days. Very small chances for rain Mon-Wed.

Upwelling will be a factor but maybe not as big as it could be, the gulf stream is feeding fuel northward at 4-6 mph. The islands are causing some disruption and when Dorian clears them, I think we'll see it strengthen some.

Cashed in on the recent mini-drought in my backyard big-time today. Some of the hardest rain I've seen all season, combined with a bit of small hail and 20+ minute barrage of crazy close-range CG lightning. I ended up with 2.6" of rain in a little over an hour.

Doesn't look promising. I guess I'll have to keep watering my lawn!

Same here. It does look like the outflow from this morning convection to the south has stalled near or just north of Longview, and there is an area of agitated cumulus that may turn into a few storms/showers with continued strong insolation along the boundary.

Ditto, except we haven't had a good shower yet. I'm hoping to cash in on one today yet before it dries out for a while again.

It's been dry IMBY since the bonus rain last week. It finally feels like mid-late summer here, with temperatures in the upper 90's today and through the extended forecast, and no rain expected. I'll have to water my lawn this weekend for only the 2nd time all year!

Cashed in on 0.50" of rain yesterday afternoon, and 1.85" early this morning in a storm that woke me up. Great timing as I could tell my grass was beginning to fade a bit from it's lush green nature I have enjoyed all spring/summer so far. I've only watered one time all year.

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either.

NHC shifting their forecast track farther east.

Surprise, surprise, the MCS from KS is knocking on my door.

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.

I agree with SPC concerning the tornado threat, my concern is for potentially wind-driven very large hail. That would be no fun. *edit - Towers are going up north of DFW. Initiation seems likely soon.

There was a tornado warning near/west of Marshall, TX and there were reports of wind damage, it wouldn't surprise me to have a survey crew confirm a tornado in that location. I had some strong winds in Longview from that line, but I think the worst winds hit just north of me. Models are showing supercell initiation in the 5-7 PM time frame this evening near and NE of the DFW metro.

SPC added a small 10% area for initial supercell development expected late this afternoon/early evening just northeast of DFW. Larger area of hatched hail/wind probabilities as well. The storms are expected to quickly merge into a southeastward moving severe MCS.