cstrunk

Ended up getting ~40-45 mph gusts, a bit of pea-size hail, and 2.2" of rain from the complex that moved through my backyard.

Now 3 tornado warned storms near the red river.

SBCAPE is 2500+ in the area SE of Dallas, but dewpoints are still in the low-60's while surface temperatures are in the low-mid-80's. 60-75 knots effective bulk shear might be too much.

I was wrong about what I thought was the cumulus field on satellite earlier. There is an actual cumulus field deepening on the south side of DFW. I think initial storm development in TX may be just southeast of Dallas. SPC Mesoanalysis shows 2000+ SBCAPE, 200+ ESRH, 60+ knots effective bulk shear, and low 60's dewpoints in this area.

The southern threat area from that model runs lines up with the deepening cumulus field east of DFW. Dewpoints are still struggling, with many locations stuck in the upper 50's.

I agree the biggest threat will be right along the warm front near the Red River towards Texarkana. Storms south of there seem to struggle on the latest HRRR runs.

Yeah, not sure it will be enough to produce a big tornado threat. There's still a little bit of time for the low-60's dewpoints to head north. There are some readings around 60 in the Texarkana area, but plenty of other mid-upper-50's as well. The latest HRRR runs still show mid-60's to Longview this afternoon, but those don't make it any farther north. The cells south of the Red River don't look as robust as they did in earlier runs, either.

With the radar presentation and history of the storm I'm not sure why it's not Tornado warned.

Looks like the updraft on the southern storm attempt just got choked off and has weakened... we'll see if it continues to try to break the cap.

Clouds and storms in E/SE TX are going to spoil the threat for NE TX as well it seems.

Tornado warned storms in East Texas are in an area of 400-600 ESRH according to SPC Mesoanalysis...

Just had a downpour IMBY in Longview, TX. Now I have sunshine. If this line in E/SE TX can push east we should see more clearing...

I agree, DFW is definitely in a precarious position this afternoon. Maybe I should have clarified, I have more of a IMBY bias here in Longview. I do think there is a greater threat in an area bounded by DFW, Sulpher Springs TX, Pauls Valley OK, and McAlester OK. SE TX may also be interesting. Not sure that the greater threat will extend eastwards towards NW LA as per SPC. Not to say there won't be severe storms farther east, as I'm sure there will be. As always, I'm sure this could/will change...

Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.

Had a couple pieces of graupel fall from the sky in Longview this morning. Air temp is 46F.