cstrunk

I had to scrape the frost off of my windshield this morning. That's crazy for mid-April.

Had a nice storm blow through last night, and apparently produce a tornado just a few miles away near Diana, TX.

Looks like the risk ended up verifying for me, personally, in Longview, TX. A tornado reported overnight near Diana, TX.

To be fair, I did specifically mention NE KS, where I noted a pronounced HHHR helicity swath moreso than I did in SW IA. SW IA may well be the better play.

NE KS also looks like a good play, west/southwest of St. Joseph, MO.

IMO, I would shift/expand the MOD risk area a bit west or southwest... HHHR and NAM NEST showing a number of more discrete cells and helicity tracks in NE TX.

SPC going with a MOD for southwest AR, extreme NE TX, and extreme NW LA.

We have a day 2 enhanced risk for a decent chunk of the mid-south for a strong to severe MCS expected to move through the region. Hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes in spin-ups along the line look possible.

Well, the models pretty much nailed this to a "T" for my location. The heavier convection stayed just to my south, and the storms that fired along the cold front fizzled out pretty quickly. Pretty amazing job on their part.

I'm a couple hours east of you, but I'm not thrilled with the HRRR/NAM for my prospects. The storms in central TX look to move south of my location robbing energy for storms that develop along the cold front and move southeastward towards me. The storms on the cold front seem to die as they reach my area. We'll see. It is very windy and warm outside, partly sunny.

It's looking like a very stormy/rainy mid week for much of East TX, southern AR, southeast OK, into much of LA. Large hail/wind seems to be the main severe threat coupled with widespread 2"-6" rainfall totals.

SPC has added 15% probabilities for severe in their latest Day 4 outlook (Friday, March 16th) for all of Arkansas into southern Missouri and the Arklatex region. That's the first day of our camping trip. I love storms, but could do without them for camping, especially in an area that is saturated with tall trees.

There ended up being quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There were a number of hail and wind reports (up to 80-90 mph). One of the hardest hit areas was over Lake O' The Pines, where a bunch of trees blew over. *Edit - There was unfortunately one fatality and several others injured at the Brushy Creek campground. Another fatality and injury was reported in Longview when a tree fell on a their house. I ended up with a nice lightning show and almost an inch of rain in my backyard. We're going camping in Arkansas this weekend, hope the weather cooperates...

A few severe thunderstorms over NE TX tonight. I hope we cash in on a nice shower for my lawn!

The grass is starting to green up around here. We got a bit of light rain today, and have a decent chance of rain again tomorrow, but I'm glad that we're going to get a break after that.