cstrunk

Another, perhaps more significant, severe weather outbreak is on tap for much of north/northeast Texas today. Already a severe thunderstorm near Wichita Falls. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Very large/giant hail possible, in addition to strong wind and a few tornadoes, especially this afternoon into this evening.

Mid-day update from SPC edges slight risk a bit more south into NE TX/NW LA. HRRR very consistent with storms from Dallas eastward.

Slight risk today has been stretched SW into NE Texas. Last few runs of the HRRR is showing some storms late this afternoon/evening forming near Dallas and points east. There's also potential for isolated storms south/west. Hail/wind is probably the biggest threat, with isolated tornadoes still a possibility. Tomorrow will have another threat for severe weather with storms potentially initiating near Sherman and headed south/east from there.

I think we've had 4 tornado warnings in Longview this year. No touchdowns that I'm aware of. Last night sure was close to another as the rotation was headed towards Longview again but the storm weakened as it got here, thankfully. This evening will be interesting again for the same areas of SE OK down towards Paris/Texarkana. Not sure how far south storms will make it or if they'll be very strong by the time they reach Longview. There's a stationary boundary stretching from roughly Ardmore-Sherman-Tyler-Nacogdoches. That may help focus storms, we shall see.

This forum has really died out. Decent chance at some severe weather in NE TX this evening. Storms in SE OK should move into NE TX. May be more of a linear wind/hail threat, but isolated tornado threat with any cell that can form/stay isolated and ahead of the outflow boundary.

My Father-in-Law is without power in Henderson. Since 12:30 am.

Not much freezing rain in north Longview from this event. Less than 0.1". 1.5"-2" sleet. QPF way underperformed. Pretty much all models had a 2"+ bullseye in NE TX. Isolated areas may have verified but I'm guessing precip was overdone for many areas.

Yep quiet afternoon. Sleet has returned. I feel like it'll all be sleet. Maybe some flakes at daybreak. Temps in the mid-20's.

Heavy sleet in Longview right now at 31F.

Storms in south Texas with the initial wave may rob some moisture somewhere in E/NE Texas. Something that may limit total precip from 1.5"-2" down to maybe 1" in some places.

I hope you are right and Longview gets 0.25" or less freezing rain. The ISW calls for 0.5"-0.75" with up to 1" of ice, but as aggiegeog noted, we seem to be dancing along a fine line.

Devastating ice storm potential for the general vicinity of the Arklatex and a bit south and east of there. Many models are showing fairly large areas of 1"+ of ice.

Decent severe weather threat for much of east Texas into LA/MS this afternoon into tonight. Could see a few sky noodles.

Yes. Similar events with dozens of deaths have occurred in the region - some recently. Flash flood awareness should be higher here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Flood_Alley

Pretty bow echo in ETX has more bark than bite. Warned for 80 mph and the tornado sirens sounded in Longview. Don't think wind even hit 40 mph.

West Texas has certainly been active this week. It's been nice to see areas that need rain get it. Would like to see our friends in south/southwest Texas get in on more of it. Monday looks like an interesting day in the central plains, with severe threat progressing south/east through the week.

Luckily it did miss town to the north. Undoubtedly a few farmsteads were probably hit. Haven't really seen or heard of much damage though - yet.

Pretty strong wind with very heavy rain with the line that moved through Longview this morning. My boss's shed landed in my backyard. Fences are fine so it went airborne.

That Day 1 upgrade for tornado probabilities is concerning for NTX and S/C OK since it will be a late night/early morning threat. Hopefully storm mode stays messy and it doesn't get out of hand.

Tuesday is definitely on my radar for threat to my local (ETX) area, but the highest threat seems to be into AR and LA at this time. BTW - The dates should be 3/4 and 3/5.

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

06z GFS has the storm on Tuesday the 21st now. 18" of snow in deep ETX.

Around 5:30 pm we dropped to 31.8F and stayed there until a little while ago, rose to 32.2F. About the worst possible winter weather situation.

Agree. WAA/warm nose wins.

Might be something around/after New Year's Day... according to GFS.