cstrunk

Latest HRRR, NAM 3K NEST, and GFS don't seem to support the threat around DFW and southward. Mostly seems to develop a MCS in SE OK that bows southeast overnight.

Well, it still seems like there could be substantial severe weather in OK/TX/AR/LA. So this would be the place for that in my opinion.

Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust.

Mesoscale Discussion 0322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021 Areas affected...Parts of eastern/northeastern Texas through western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071610Z - 071815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms appears possible as early 1-2 PM CDT. This may, at least initially, include discrete supercells, before a squall line tends to evolve, and a risk for tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is slowing moist, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization, but it appears the air mass is already potentially moderately unstable as the significant upstream short wave trough begins to take on a neutral to negative tilt across the central Great Plains. Downstream of the base of this troughing, beneath increasingly difluent mid/upper flow, considerable model output suggests that erosion of inhibition associated with capping elevated mixed-layer air, coupled with at least some further boundary-layer warming, will allow for the initiation of thunderstorm development as early as 18-19Z. Initially this may be largely discrete, and scattered, but focused within a zone of enhanced low-level convergence along an eastward advancing cold front. With the environment becoming characterized by wind profiles with strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, in the presence of a deep moist boundary-layer, it appears conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. This includes potential for a strong tornado or two, though the overall tornado potential could be mitigated somewhat by relatively modest high-level flow and the tendency for upscale convective growth along the cold front through the afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

The GFS is showing a much more active period than it has been for much of the southern plains over the next 3-10 days.

Very strong rotation on the tornado warned cell near Rusk, TX.

Yes, it is unusable, IMO. Did they not test it out before making the switch?? Takes forever to load and is very glitchy.

Tornado watch issued. 70/60 probs...

This originally looked like a threat farther east of this region, but it has shifted further into our area. Latest short term models show supercells developing in NETX and points northeast by around 2-4 pm. All hazards are included in the threat with some being significant.

Actually I think it occluded and a new small tornado formed over Fayetteville.

Yeah after a couple increases it looks weaker now...

Velocities increasing last scan.

Bibb Correctional Facility and likely a bunch of mobile homes on the SW side of Brent. It's on top of the airport now.

There are a lot of trailer homes where the tornado is currently.

Bibb Correctional Facility just south of Brent, AL looks like it will take a direct hit.

Rotation increasing near Watauga or just north of North Richland Hills... No warning yet.

Decent hook just north of downtown Fort Worth but not much on velocity yet - keep an eye out.

Rotation still pretty broad. Still has a nasty hail core.

Wow.

In my unprofessional opinion, it's lower at this time. But there are some small cells in the DFW area and just south that are trying to form. Just not doing much yet. That may change so don't take my word for it.

Storms SE of Dallas are all taking on supercellular characteristics on radar. The Mabank storm has a really nice reflectivity presentation already... the others storms have "the look" as well. Large hail threat for sure on the east side of Dallas towards Lindale. Good shear in place but helicity values pretty modest, so the tornado threat will hopefully stay low, but may increase in time...

Storms are continuing the organize SE of Dallas. This is where the HRRR was spitting out some helicity tracks for the 5-7 pm range.

I thought the watch would have been issued sooner, but they were probably debating whether it should be a SVR or TOR. It seems to me like the 30/10 TOR is appropriate, based on the short-term guidance.

Yeah, returns beginning to strengthen, especially SE towards Corsicana and Athens. Looks like it's along the warm front.

Reflectivity image is pretty crazy.