cstrunk

It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional. More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself. It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter.

Yeah I think this is worth highlighting - we'll have at least a handful of tornado reports but like always in this region, storm mode is king, and will be the difference in determining if this is a memorable vs. a unremarkable event.

The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week.

Crazy to see this kind of wording at Day 5. Lots of time for changes.

Brrrr. I'm surprised it's this cold already and it's not even officially winter.

Confirmed tornado near Fairplay, TX (9 mi west of Carthage). This pic shared on local news recently.

Tornado warning Panola County TX.

I ended up with 0.6" rain at my house, more than I thought!

Cold front is on its way through... thought all of the precipitation would miss me but we're getting a tail-end storm finally. It won't be a lot but it's something at least!

The forecast high for Monday is 73. After a mid-week warmup, next Friday and Saturday will only reach the upper 60's. Fall is here (finally)!

I'm definitely looking forward to some cooler temps next week. September was a heater. And would a little bit of rain be too much to ask for?

I ended up getting 1.6" from yesterday around noon until this morning at 7:30 AM. The radar estimate seems way off, as it shows that I should have only had about 0.3". I guess the small droplet size had something to do with that?

Oh wow, that's nuts. Is that the only model that picks up on this that you've seen? Hopefully that's an outlier and can be disregarded, but it would be nice if we ended up with more than an inch. Just not 12".

I'm curious, where do you go to view the Euro model? I use COD weather but it doesn't have that model. Everything on there looks like 0.5"-1" for at least the Longview area now, instead of 2-4" from yesterday.

Hopefully the flooding isn't too bad, but many areas could surely use the rain.

It's hot and dry... this week doesn't look much different, although temperatures should be in the mid-90's compared to the 100's over the last few days. Very small chances for rain Mon-Wed.

Cashed in on the recent mini-drought in my backyard big-time today. Some of the hardest rain I've seen all season, combined with a bit of small hail and 20+ minute barrage of crazy close-range CG lightning. I ended up with 2.6" of rain in a little over an hour.

Doesn't look promising. I guess I'll have to keep watering my lawn!

Same here. It does look like the outflow from this morning convection to the south has stalled near or just north of Longview, and there is an area of agitated cumulus that may turn into a few storms/showers with continued strong insolation along the boundary.

Ditto, except we haven't had a good shower yet. I'm hoping to cash in on one today yet before it dries out for a while again.

It's been dry IMBY since the bonus rain last week. It finally feels like mid-late summer here, with temperatures in the upper 90's today and through the extended forecast, and no rain expected. I'll have to water my lawn this weekend for only the 2nd time all year!

Cashed in on 0.50" of rain yesterday afternoon, and 1.85" early this morning in a storm that woke me up. Great timing as I could tell my grass was beginning to fade a bit from it's lush green nature I have enjoyed all spring/summer so far. I've only watered one time all year.

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either.

Surprise, surprise, the MCS from KS is knocking on my door.

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.