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cstrunk

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Everything posted by cstrunk

  1. cstrunk
    Surprise, surprise, the MCS from KS is knocking on my door.
  2. cstrunk
    Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.
  3. cstrunk
    I agree with SPC concerning the tornado threat, my concern is for potentially wind-driven very large hail. That would be no fun. *edit - Towers are going up north of DFW. Initiation seems likely soon.
  4. cstrunk
    There was a tornado warning near/west of Marshall, TX and there were reports of wind damage, it wouldn't surprise me to have a survey crew confirm a tornado in that location. I had some strong winds in Longview from that line, but I think the worst winds hit just north of me. Models are showing supercell initiation in the 5-7 PM time frame this evening near and NE of the DFW metro.
  5. cstrunk
    SPC added a small 10% area for initial supercell development expected late this afternoon/early evening just northeast of DFW. Larger area of hatched hail/wind probabilities as well. The storms are expected to quickly merge into a southeastward moving severe MCS.
  6. cstrunk
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0876.html Tornado watch likely incoming for north-central and south-central Oklahoma...
  7. cstrunk
    Two tornadoes could have the same wind speed but a mile wide wedge is going to have a much longer duration than say a 100 yard wide tornado... thus more opportunity to inflict damage.
  8. cstrunk
    A tornado hit my uncle's place north of Seneca, KS this morning around 4:30 AM. Destroyed his mechanic shop and grain bin. The house seems OK thankfully.
  9. cstrunk
    There's two supercells northeast of Tulsa... near Vera and also Bushyhead that are starting to tighten up. *Edit - There may be too much surging from the hook region for these to really get going.
  10. cstrunk
    Agreed. Nothing significant it seems on radar. There's a fairly small but tight couplet west of Vera, OK but most others are pretty broad. Hopefully the trend continues. *Edit - That Vera, OK circulation had an interesting NNW track...
  11. cstrunk
    It has cycled numerous times so it's not one continuous tornado... but many separate tornadoes. Not clear if it's had something on the ground continuously.
  12. cstrunk
    There's three tornado warned supercells in a row in Illinois, with the lead storm on a track towards Peoria.
  13. cstrunk
    Trailing Missouri supercell looks like it will need to be tornado warned soon, just north of... you guessed it... Golden City. *Edit - Tornado Warning now. Rotation a few miles north of Golden City.
  14. cstrunk
    I'd say this is a big enough stand-alone event to use the other thread dedicated for today. If y'all could post there that would be good IMO.
  15. cstrunk
    26 tornado reports yesterday.... 37 reports today. Seems like the best days are usually surprises more often than not lately.
  16. cstrunk
    I don't think I've ever seen a precipitation hole as pronounced as this with a tornado. Wow!
  17. cstrunk
    The new Day 1 Outlook has extended the Enhanced area and 10% hatched tornado area significantly westward, now encompassing most of north and northeast TX, SE OK, NW LA, and a large portion of AR.
  18. cstrunk
    That Ballinger storm is still looking nasty heading towards Novice, TX. I didn't expect to wake up to conditions that look like this already...
  19. cstrunk
    Yeah, the storms were pretty blah right up until around 2 pm as they approached the 259 corridor in NE TX then all of the sudden there were QLCS spin-ups everywhere. I was on my way back to the office and watched it spin up hard from the north loop in town. If there was a tornado in there at least it was fairly weak, it was rain wrapped so I couldn't see anything else. Mostly tree damage although the steeple off of a church in town was blown over... And a Sonic sign was damaged.
  20. cstrunk
    There was strong rotation in the storm that just moved through northern Longview, TX about 20 minutes ago. Knocked out out power.
  21. cstrunk
    Seems like it's been a long time since we haven't had 2"-3" of rain in a week. Last nights storms brought 4.3" to my rain gage. The previous round last week brought 3". Lots of flooding issues across NE TX. More rain in the forecast before a nice brief reprieve over the weekend into Monday. Just in time for the Red Dirt Music & BBQ Festival!
  22. cstrunk
    Still 4 active tornado warnings across NW TX and SC OK. Surprised this was never upgraded to a tornado watch.
  23. cstrunk
    Maybe it's just me, but the storms in SC OK already have that "look". More storms firing in NW/NC TX. Meanwhile, farther east, the outflow boundary in NE TX and NW LA continues moving southward. It will be interesting to see if it slows down/stalls/moves back northward and if any storms fire along it and take advantage of the enhanced helicity. There is more upper level support in this area, and CAPE is high to its south.
  24. cstrunk
    That area of rotation dissipated as it moved northeast, and another area of decent rotation formed without a tornado warning near Diana, TX. I called my friend to let them know, but there was no tornado warning. He said it was quite windy and they had lost power, so I told them to hang tight for 10 minutes or so in their closet. No other incident that I'm aware of and it looks like the rotation has weakened.
  25. cstrunk
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html Severe Thunderstorm Watch for central TX to extreme south central OK. Mentions the possibility of a tornado or two near the Red River.
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