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cstrunk

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Everything posted by cstrunk

  1. cstrunk
    Yeah, not sure it will be enough to produce a big tornado threat. There's still a little bit of time for the low-60's dewpoints to head north. There are some readings around 60 in the Texarkana area, but plenty of other mid-upper-50's as well. The latest HRRR runs still show mid-60's to Longview this afternoon, but those don't make it any farther north. The cells south of the Red River don't look as robust as they did in earlier runs, either.
  2. cstrunk
    With the radar presentation and history of the storm I'm not sure why it's not Tornado warned.
  3. cstrunk
    Looks like the updraft on the southern storm attempt just got choked off and has weakened... we'll see if it continues to try to break the cap.
  4. cstrunk
    Clouds and storms in E/SE TX are going to spoil the threat for NE TX as well it seems.
  5. cstrunk
    Tornado warned storms in East Texas are in an area of 400-600 ESRH according to SPC Mesoanalysis...
  6. cstrunk
    Just had a downpour IMBY in Longview, TX. Now I have sunshine. If this line in E/SE TX can push east we should see more clearing...
  7. cstrunk
    I agree, DFW is definitely in a precarious position this afternoon. Maybe I should have clarified, I have more of a IMBY bias here in Longview. I do think there is a greater threat in an area bounded by DFW, Sulpher Springs TX, Pauls Valley OK, and McAlester OK. SE TX may also be interesting. Not sure that the greater threat will extend eastwards towards NW LA as per SPC. Not to say there won't be severe storms farther east, as I'm sure there will be. As always, I'm sure this could/will change...
  8. cstrunk
    Yeah, all of the clouds are going to put a damper on things, IMO. Already seeing junk showers from I-35 east. Need that to move out and see some sun ASAP.
  9. cstrunk
    Had a couple pieces of graupel fall from the sky in Longview this morning. Air temp is 46F.
  10. cstrunk
    Yeah it was. A good 20+ minutes of 50-60 mph gusts here. Knocked over the next door neighbor's fence. Also heard a tree fall a block north and partially land on a house, luckily it wasn't directly on it.
  11. cstrunk
    Day 3 Slight Risk for NE TX, N LA, S AR, and W MS. Mentions after dark tornadic potential with strengthening LLJ.
  12. cstrunk
    Tornado watch for SE NE, southern IA, and northern MO. Initiation already occurring in SE NE and extreme SW IA in the form of discrete cells.
  13. cstrunk
    The 15z HRRR has a pretty ridiculous updraft helicity track from SW IA through Des Moines.
  14. cstrunk
    An area between my hometown of Shenandoah, IA and Omaha, NE would be a good spot to chase this afternoon from the hilltops. Monitoring a potential severe threat here in NE TX as well. HRRR shows some activity here that could get interesting.
  15. cstrunk
    Models are showing a pretty good severe/tornado threat this afternoon/evening in extreme SE New Mexico and SW Texas.
  16. cstrunk
    Measured another 2.5" at my house from yesterday's and last night's rain. My yard is a bit swampy.
  17. cstrunk
    I had another 0.7" Wednesday during the day, putting my 3 day total at about 8". The golf course next to my office had a wee bit of water in it.
  18. cstrunk
    I measured 4.1" of rain from yesterday through 7 AM this morning. Combined with 3.2" from earlier this week puts me at 7.3" for the week.
  19. cstrunk
    I had 2.6" of rain IMBY earlier this morning. More heavy rain expected through Wednesday. *Update: 3.2" total for the day through 7 pm.
  20. cstrunk
    North Central TX might see some interesting storms later this afternoon.
  21. cstrunk
    Maybe we'll get lucky but it sounds like we'll just get lots of cold rain...
  22. cstrunk
    So much junk... moderate risk what?
  23. cstrunk
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0018.html Largest mesoscale discussion ever? LOL
  24. cstrunk
    Nothing staying or getting very organized in Texas, still.
  25. cstrunk
    I'm keeping an eye on the strengthening showers in the Tyler, TX area in the warm sector to see if they can become organized.
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