cstrunk

Well, losing a engine would certainly be a good reason to not fly into a Cat 4 'cane. But what are we doing? Flying WW2 planes into hurricanes? It's 2021 for crying out loud. This program needs more funding.

This has been a great summer so far. Most days in the 80's or low-90's and above normal precipitation. I haven't had to water my lawn once this year.

I had 0.39" on Monday and 0.3" the previous Monday. I'll take that for late June but hope that continues through the next couple of months. It still looks good for the next few weeks at least.

Quite a bit of sunshine today, a humid airmass, and relatively strong low level winds make today seem like a stronger risk for severe weather this afternoon in East Texas than many other days that have been cloudy/less windy.

7.78" of rain measured at my house in a 22 hour period from 9:30 pm Monday night through 7:30 pm Tuesday night.

These training storms are making it awfully hard for me to get back home... (Flight to DFW and then GGG, the latter of which has already been cancelled).

Holy 12z HRRR helicity swaths for NW/northern TX this afternoon...

That's just Reed doing Reed things. He acts that way for three reasons. 1) He has an insane passion for severe weather. 2) He knows that he can hype ANYTHING to generate more clicks, views, ratings, etc. which generates him money. 3) He has a screw loose in his head. But whatever you say about him, the dude just gets it done more often than not.

Beautiful tornado warned supercell with very strong rotation just north of Guthrie, TX.

Messy storm mode in ETX killed the threat.

Big ol ETX bust is what I see.

Grunge-fest in progress along and east of I-35. We'll see how the activity reacts to the strengthening wind profiles into the evening.

The East Texas and Louisiana threat looks pretty dang messy and will be in questionable to poor chase terrain. The extreme NW Texas threat looks like a pretty good bet to at least see 2-3 isolated supercells. The tornado threat may be a tad bit lower but from a storm chasing perspective, that's where I would target.

3.76" of rain over the last week has been nice since models had been showing quite a bit less. Hopefully the rest of Texas is cashing in, or can sooner rather than later.

There may also be some action in the central plains towards the last few days in April.

06z GFS is showing potential for the 4/23-4/28 timeframe.

I guess they decided that the Euro wasn't the model to follow after all (or maybe the Euro caved)? This update lines up with what the NAM and HRRR are showing.

Latest HRRR, NAM 3K NEST, and GFS don't seem to support the threat around DFW and southward. Mostly seems to develop a MCS in SE OK that bows southeast overnight.

Well, it still seems like there could be substantial severe weather in OK/TX/AR/LA. So this would be the place for that in my opinion.

Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust.

Mesoscale Discussion 0322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021 Areas affected...Parts of eastern/northeastern Texas through western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071610Z - 071815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms appears possible as early 1-2 PM CDT. This may, at least initially, include discrete supercells, before a squall line tends to evolve, and a risk for tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is slowing moist, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization, but it appears the air mass is already potentially moderately unstable as the significant upstream short wave trough begins to take on a neutral to negative tilt across the central Great Plains. Downstream of the base of this troughing, beneath increasingly difluent mid/upper flow, considerable model output suggests that erosion of inhibition associated with capping elevated mixed-layer air, coupled with at least some further boundary-layer warming, will allow for the initiation of thunderstorm development as early as 18-19Z. Initially this may be largely discrete, and scattered, but focused within a zone of enhanced low-level convergence along an eastward advancing cold front. With the environment becoming characterized by wind profiles with strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, in the presence of a deep moist boundary-layer, it appears conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. This includes potential for a strong tornado or two, though the overall tornado potential could be mitigated somewhat by relatively modest high-level flow and the tendency for upscale convective growth along the cold front through the afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...

The GFS is showing a much more active period than it has been for much of the southern plains over the next 3-10 days.

Very strong rotation on the tornado warned cell near Rusk, TX.

Yes, it is unusable, IMO. Did they not test it out before making the switch?? Takes forever to load and is very glitchy.

Tornado watch issued. 70/60 probs...