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cstrunk

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Everything posted by cstrunk

  1. cstrunk
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0181.html Tornado Watch with 40/20 probs until 6 pm for a good chunk of central/eastern Texas.
  2. cstrunk
    70/40 probs on the new tornado watch for the Arklatex region.
  3. cstrunk
    The SPC is considering a tornado watch for the Ark-la-tex region this morning. The HRRR is showing a line of storms/possible supercells in ETX by the 18-20z timeframe.
  4. cstrunk
    No damage at my house. Gusted 50-60 mph for a couple minutes.
  5. cstrunk
    Absolutely. Also very interesting how many of the same general areas in Texas were affected tonight as they were a few weeks ago. At least for central and east/NE Texas.
  6. cstrunk
    The parameters in and near Iowa along and south of the warm front are pretty crazy. One SCP spot showing up of 36. STP up to 6-8. Helicity 400-600.
  7. cstrunk
    A good day for margarita's in N TX this afternoon with those lime-sized hail pieces falling... I'll be watching for potential pre-MCS supercells in east Texas later this evening. Obviously there will probably be some QLCS tornado potential too with the main line, along with potential 60-70+ mph straight line winds.
  8. cstrunk
    I'm in Longview. It'll probably be closer to midnight before the current group of storms gets here. Unless something goes severe ahead of it.
  9. cstrunk
    Well, losing a engine would certainly be a good reason to not fly into a Cat 4 'cane. But what are we doing? Flying WW2 planes into hurricanes? It's 2021 for crying out loud. This program needs more funding.
  10. cstrunk
    This has been a great summer so far. Most days in the 80's or low-90's and above normal precipitation. I haven't had to water my lawn once this year.
  11. cstrunk
    I had 0.39" on Monday and 0.3" the previous Monday. I'll take that for late June but hope that continues through the next couple of months. It still looks good for the next few weeks at least.
  12. cstrunk
    Quite a bit of sunshine today, a humid airmass, and relatively strong low level winds make today seem like a stronger risk for severe weather this afternoon in East Texas than many other days that have been cloudy/less windy.
  13. cstrunk
    7.78" of rain measured at my house in a 22 hour period from 9:30 pm Monday night through 7:30 pm Tuesday night.
  14. cstrunk
    These training storms are making it awfully hard for me to get back home... (Flight to DFW and then GGG, the latter of which has already been cancelled).
  15. cstrunk
    Holy 12z HRRR helicity swaths for NW/northern TX this afternoon...
  16. cstrunk
    That's just Reed doing Reed things. He acts that way for three reasons. 1) He has an insane passion for severe weather. 2) He knows that he can hype ANYTHING to generate more clicks, views, ratings, etc. which generates him money. 3) He has a screw loose in his head. But whatever you say about him, the dude just gets it done more often than not.
  17. cstrunk
    Beautiful tornado warned supercell with very strong rotation just north of Guthrie, TX.
  18. cstrunk
    Messy storm mode in ETX killed the threat.
  19. cstrunk
    Big ol ETX bust is what I see.
  20. cstrunk
    Grunge-fest in progress along and east of I-35. We'll see how the activity reacts to the strengthening wind profiles into the evening.
  21. cstrunk
    The East Texas and Louisiana threat looks pretty dang messy and will be in questionable to poor chase terrain. The extreme NW Texas threat looks like a pretty good bet to at least see 2-3 isolated supercells. The tornado threat may be a tad bit lower but from a storm chasing perspective, that's where I would target.
  22. cstrunk
    3.76" of rain over the last week has been nice since models had been showing quite a bit less. Hopefully the rest of Texas is cashing in, or can sooner rather than later.
  23. cstrunk
    There may also be some action in the central plains towards the last few days in April.
  24. cstrunk
    06z GFS is showing potential for the 4/23-4/28 timeframe.
  25. cstrunk
    I guess they decided that the Euro wasn't the model to follow after all (or maybe the Euro caved)? This update lines up with what the NAM and HRRR are showing.
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