cstrunk

Keeping an eye on Beryl...

I'm on day 8 in a row with measurable rainfall, with several multi-inch events within this span. Tomorrow morning will likely be day 9.

Another MCS moving through NE Texas. Another one likely later tonight/tomorrow morning.

Yeah it's been quite the stretch here. Don't think we're done yet either.

It's mid-afternoon, there's a MCS diving SE from Oklahoma into huge CAPE (4000-6000 J/kg), mid-upper 70's dew points, adequate bulk shear (35-40 knots), 100-200 m2/s2 helicity, and yet it's not severe. What's holding it back?

Yeah that was a nasty storm in West Texas. My post was focused on my area in East Texas, I should have been more clear. We ended up with 3.27" of rain yesterday. Just a bit of light rain this morning, 0.12" so far and I don't expect much more. I'm looking forward to some drier weather, I need to mow my lawn!

Well there were a few rotating storms along I-20 in East Texas this afternoon but nothing tightened up. There was one tornado warning near Marshall, TX.Now the focus is very heavy rain. A very large flash flood warning has been issued along those same areas of I-20 for this area. Not much lightning and thunder.

The enhanced risk was pretty good, but the slight risk extending up towards Texarkana was a bust. Models never really showed much north of I-10 in TX and LA, due to the substantial convection across S/SE TX and S LA... and that's what happened. Marginal risk for the northern uncertainty would have sufficed (and still not verify).

I-10 special today from San Antonio through Houston later mostly for wind/very large hail. Ended up with 1.49" yesterday.

1.26" so far today in Longview and it's not quite done yet. Nice soaking rain. I think tomorrow's severe threat is going to get pushed farther south/east again. Models not looking impressive (IMO) due to lingering precip tonight/tomorrow morning across areas of eastern Texas.

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html Tornado watch up in Texas.

Lots of supercells out there this afternoon across a wide area! Several tornado warnings as well.

Friendly reminder - don't feed the trolls... just ignore them.

I updated the thread title to include today, due to the updated Enhanced Risk added for NW Texas.

Maybe I need to convince my boss to let me take my birthday off from work...

SPC Day One Outlook (4-30-24): SPC Day Two Outlook (4-31-24): Severe storms in chaseable terrain return today and tomorrow (possibly Thursday too?). Today's threat covers areas hit hard by Friday's storms in E NE and W IA.

It seems to me like the SPC is highlighting risk areas in Days 4-8 more than in the past. That used to be more of a big deal, as it seems like they would only do that for days with a much higher certainty of some kind of severe weather outbreak, and those would end up being more like true "Moderate" risk type days (which are much more infrequent). Now they are highlighting those areas and they don't end up being huge outbreaks, just standard "Slight" or "Enhanced" risk type days. But not significant, like you mention. I think social media is making it worse. There's so many variables and failure modes, that confidence can't be that high at those ranges to start highlighting "Super Outbreaks" headlines that we've seen from some.

5.93" total IMBY on the north side of Longview.

Man, the last few runs of the HRRR look pretty nasty for a pretty big area of NE TX, E OK, and NW AR. Lots of individual cells/supercells this afternoon/evening.

Tomorrow evening certainly looks interesting in the extreme NE Kansas area.

Southern Tyler had up to 2 inch hail about 30 mins ago. It's headed towards Longview now but should focus on the central/southern part of town and the worst should miss me.

Less than a half inch of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow in Longview. Ground mostly white but not completely. Roads are iced over and will get worse as traffic drives on it. Not forecast to get above freezing until Wednesday. Should see some melting tomorrow with a high of 30 degrees and some sun. Roads will be hazardous through Wednesday.

PDS tornado warning north of Clarksville, TN.