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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

927 mb at peak in Eastern Gulf. Some keep mentioning the fact that it weakens before landfall from an intense Cat 4/5 peak. That's true....but just imagine the storm surge potential it could build up. Good grief.

Like Ike, hit as a Cat 2 with Cat 4 storm surge. If this clears the Yucatán uprights (between Cuba and the peninsula, forgive the football analogy). The surge potential will be catastrophic. Nothing to slow down the wall of water. 

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The latest euro runs are just the next iteration of the pattern evolution we have seen over the past month. At a synoptic level, you have to benchmark this system accordingly. Sure it could end up quite different, but this makes the most sense right now; minus all the details.

The EPS shows the UL trough interaction by day 5, so a key feature is within model accuracy view 

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58 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The latest euro runs are just the next iteration of the pattern evolution we have seen over the past month. At a synoptic level, you have to benchmark this system accordingly. Sure it could end up quite different, but this makes the most sense right now; minus all the details.

The EPS shows the UL trough interaction by day 5, so a key feature is within model accuracy view 

Do you think the trend is toward the southern Florida peninsula? That 00z Euro run hit my house bad in Palm Beach County. Same track through Florida as Wilma.

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If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening.

 It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking. 

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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