Superstorm93

00z Best Track came in with 80 knots right before the new pass AL, 05, 2019083000, , BEST, 0, 228N, 680W, 80, 978

Looking pretty healthy tonight. Would love to see if recon finds any substantial changes. One would think that the EWRC is over at this point.

Quite a bit of lightning this go around

Raw text has it as well. NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32 0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43 1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68 0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75 1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82 0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40 1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39 0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28 1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

New SPC MD

Usually reserved for widespread damaging wind events. Here's an example https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2017/ww0280.html

At 1103 AM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Calvert, or near Hearne, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

At 1051 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Hearne, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

Even more bullish for 16z tomorrow...

Just for the sake of posterity, here's an observed hodo derived from the VWP @ SHV from 4/2/17

Sure https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=ud_004hmax_pb20&sector=sp&rd=20190413&rt=0000

00z HREF