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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, Normandy said:

As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing:

- Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table)

- Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL.  What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above.  

 

In short:  US is in SERIOUS trouble me thinks with this one.

Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.

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2 minutes ago, Normandy said:

As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing:

- Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table)

- Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL.  What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above.  Even if it misses S FL to the east, it just means an East coast strike further up the coast.

 

In short:  US is in SERIOUS trouble with this one.

Looking at the Euro which in itself is still very much an eastern outlier it would be more of a direct hit to the SW cost of Florida into central Florida . SE FL would still get some hefty TS force winds out of this but not a crippling blow.

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13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.

 

 I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

 I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf 

I think that's the main takeaway at this point.  A landfall looks very likely... it's mainly a question of where.

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31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall 

If it parks in that little area of high TCHP S of NOLA.MSY, then gets carried due E towards TPA, well, I'd be full weenie and glad I don't live in Tampa.

FullWeenie.png

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36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall 

Someday we will have another Elena 85 and it’s going to be glorious on the internet

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9 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. 

Agreed, we see this play out every year. 

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41 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. 

you would need a 2004 Charley like track-a strong trough digging into the east....

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47 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. 

TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records.

Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out.  We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.

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6 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records.

Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out.  We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.

If Cuba didn't exist, I wonder how much that would change things in terms of Tampa area hurricane climo.  Would imagine at least a few storms have been weakened substantially by Cuba and then come up the west side of FL as a shell of their former selves.

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59 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out.  We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.

TS Debbie with 16 inches of rain and winds enough to bring down a few trees was one for us to remember, among many.

Irma takes the cake at our home with over two weeks without power and two large oak trees coming down among all the other debris. We did experience the strongest winds we have seen since 2006 or so. A few blocks away, they never lost power. That is Florida, and especially Tampa Bay.

After Irma, we do have an all new Duke Energy infrastructure around here. We could even have a blizzard and our power would stay on! LOL

Cat 2 or 3?

All bets are off...

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3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Dude I was just wondering this morning whether you still exist. I hope this storm gives you another paragraph or two of lore. 

Oh I do drop in every day. ;)

If I could change last year's forecast contest numbers to this year:

OK:

14/11/7

Probably way low on named storms, but seven majors. Teresa might be one to be historic...

I think I was the first one eliminated. LOL

This year even my very low prediction last year seems high. What are the numbers so far?

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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