So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.
so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win.