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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 hour ago, Weather Mike said:

May I ask a question. What is causing Ian to get so close to landfall yet something is causing it to say nope, head north. Now whether or not it makes landfall or not most models show similar presentations of a stall and then almost due north projection. Is it that trough and based on the strength/position is what will determine how close it gets or is able to head east into Florida earlier ? 

Hurricanes “sense” land interaction and unless solid steering winds compel them inland they will often skirt the coastline 

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Based on the intersection of the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensemble 1σ rings the best estimate of track is for an approach toward Tampa and then a slight left turn paralleling the coast north of Tampa and then a slight right turn into eastern Georgia. I think this might be a tick east of the official NHC track at 2pm and tick west of the 18Z TVCN track.

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“National Hurricane Center director calls Ian forecast a "near worst-case scenario" for the Tampa area.” “This would be the storm of a lifetime for many Tampa Bay residents,” he added.

 

for a long time I’ve admired the power of these beautiful storms.  While I know they are destructive and deadly I still hold Nothing but awe.  Looking at the visual on satellite today I have to say that Ian has more than earned my respect and if it goes on to destroy my home I will try not to be bitter or angry.  A formidable cane is a thing of beauty for me. I’m sure I’m not the only one on this board who feels this way.  

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward
to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for
Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
 
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Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The 
last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC 
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears 
better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in 
radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite 
classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but 
the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising 
the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for 
additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves 
over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The 
NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane 
before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to 
reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 
h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer 
trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase 
over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely 
disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its 
circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still 
forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes 
near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. 
The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA 
aids.

Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its 
initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move 
north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is 
steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the 
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on 
Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west 
coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the 
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west 
coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better 
agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small 
deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications 
on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of 
Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly 
eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global 
model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model 
consensus aids.

Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west 
coast of Florida. 


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash 
floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western 
Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday.  
Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves 
across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be 
rushed to completion.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much 
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been 
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay 
region.  Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by 
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area 
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical 
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.   

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south 
Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday 
and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream 
flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across 
central Florida. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 20.3N  83.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.7N  83.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 23.6N  84.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 25.3N  83.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 26.7N  83.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 27.5N  83.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 28.1N  82.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 30.1N  82.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1800Z 33.5N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Its pretty early to be wishcasting ERC's. Lets see what happens once it emerges off the Cuban coast in the morning.  The really tough call on this is the trough strength and the fact that 10 or 20 miles one way or the other may make a LOT of difference if it scrapes along the coast all day as it nears landfall or closest approach. This thing does not need to make landfall to cause historic flooding and surge damage.

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From NHC discussion 5 pm 

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much 
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been 
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay 
region.  Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by 
local officials.

 

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TPC has again nudged the track a little to the right.  Looks to me as if they are calling for landfall very near or just north of Tampa.  If that track is realized the slow movement to me implies about 24 hours of water piling into Tampa Bay being pushed along by 80-100 mph winds.  That in addition to water piling up before that 24 hour period.  If that track is realized it is going to be a bad scene up into Tampa Bay.  Current surge forecast is 5-10 feet.  Would not be surprised if that forecast was increased depending how things evolve over the coming 18-24 hours.  Satellite has been becoming more impressive every hour during the day today.  Exact track and intensity very important to exactly how bad it gets in an around Tampa.  Seems to me the best chance for Tampa to avoid the absolute worst would be for this to cross the coast and come in to their south...i.e. like the 18Z Icon.  A distance of 10-20 miles will make a big difference.

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