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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Apologies, I thought all the tracks earlier today that were showing a second landfall and eastern NC run were because the HP was retreating and allowing Ian to escape.  

Until Ian crosses Cuba we are unfortunately going to see this back and forth game concerning the track in relation to the building HP

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latest recon data shows that the pressure of Ian has continued to fall to about 966 mbar supporting the Cat 2 call by NHC 

 

NE quadrant is where the action is hottest. DMAX action tonight could goose it further. As is this is about 6 mb stronger than what NHC published at 5 pm

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Looks like it’s getting squished and interacting with Cuban topography a bit. Dry air lurks next to this new exciting eyewall. 
 

anyone remember when gustav was going to be the apocalypse? Don’t underestimate Cuban land interaction, albeit brief. 

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2 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Looks like it’s getting squished and interacting with Cuban topography a bit. Dry air lurks next to this new exciting eyewall. 
 

anyone remember when gustav was going to be the apocalypse? Don’t underestimate Cuban land interaction, albeit brief. 

Not supported by recon though

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1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

Just look at IR the last few frames dude. It’s feeling Cuba. For sure. 

Again, concerning topography and the mountains i agree and its common sense. That's not what I was disputing with your claim, the dry air is what I dispute. Need to see more conclusive data from the Recon Hunters before going off that assumption

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5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Again, concerning topography and the mountains i agree and its common sense. That's not what I was disputing with your claim, the dry air is what I dispute. Need to see more conclusive data from the Recon Hunters before going off that assumption

Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection.

Right and I agree, just haven't seen enough conclusive data from recon to say for sure its dry air. Its definitely shear as its moving into 25-30kts of shear

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Several Thunderstorms moving across the peninsula general motion from the SE moving toward the NW. An Outer-Outer band, great, a nice PRE event. Stakes are extremely high as is my anxiety starting to rise. 
Many people are going to be shockingly surprised if they don't heed evacuations. A disaster waiting to happen.    

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection.

Thank you for taking the time to "teach" and explain yourself, I wasn't trying to come off aggressive and if I was I apologize. I'm at work tonight pulling a 12hr shift stuck in the office balancing work and occasionally trying to keep up in here following Ian.

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9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Right and I agree, just haven't seen enough conclusive data from recon to say for sure its dry air. Its definitely shear as its moving into 25-30kts of shear

Well I am talking like an integration of the entire area...one dropsonde may not tell the story.

Anyways I think it will strengthen and likely rapidly later tonight or tomorrow.

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Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Thank you for taking the time to "teach" and explain yourself, I wasn't trying to come off aggressive and if I was I apologize. I'm at work tonight pulling a 12hr shift stuck in the office balancing work and occasionally trying to keep up in here following Ian.

No problem! Just giving my thoughts that's all.

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