MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Yeah and it's concerning, definitely not good. The farther south this thing landfalls the greater likelihood Ian can roll in at peak intensity. Have to think less shear, less dry air when you get south of Tampa. Plus, little real estate between Cuba and SW FL so its the path of least resistance. Little time to undergo EWRC vs a track parallel to the coast. This really opens the door to a Cat 4 landfall given Ian tightens up when it goes over Cuba and bombs when it emerges in the Gulf. Something we never want to see closing in to game time...but...it's good to see people down there taking early precautions and rushing their preparations to completion. That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4). The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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