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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah and it's concerning, definitely not good. The farther south this thing landfalls the greater likelihood Ian can roll in at peak intensity. Have to think less shear, less dry air when you get south of Tampa. Plus, little real estate between Cuba and SW FL so its the path of least resistance. Little time to undergo EWRC vs a track parallel to the coast. This really opens the door to a Cat 4 landfall given Ian tightens up when it goes over Cuba and bombs when it emerges in the Gulf. Something we never want to see closing in to game time...but...it's good to see people down there taking early precautions and rushing their preparations to completion.  

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4).  The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4).  The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

 

I think the population there is also much higher than it was in 2004

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2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah not liking the model trends right now. We went from a weaker hurricane on landfall near the Big Bend now to a potential high-end cane rolling into Tampa or points south. Not a good trend to see being a few days out from landfall

Indeed.  I mean total property damage would probably be much lower if it comes in hot well South of TB and goes inland than if it stays parallel to TB and churns water into the bay for hours.  but my guess is that people South of Ft Meyers have not been too keen on preparations for a Major LF event 

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2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Indeed.  I mean total property damage would probably be much lower if it comes in hot well South of TB and goes inland than if it stays parallel to TB and churns water into the bay for hours.  but my guess is that people South of Ft Meyers have not been too keen on preparations for a Major LF event 

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

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I posted earlier about this. Several models were starting to see an escape. Local met even seemed surprised his model went east this evening. Maybe a useless model but more and more concern several are showing this. Also watching trends on radar. Last update shows storm moved almost due N from 5 to 8 update. If it passes just to the left of the island S of Cuba, then Ian is officially riding the right edge of the cone. 

 

Screenshot_20220926_212500.jpg

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z is notorious for hiccups.  I know most say that doesn’t happen  anymore, but it sure seems to happen quite a bit.  But it could be legit..0z will be telling.  

 Because the 18Z shift suggests landfall at only hour 48 per UKMET, Euro, ICON, and HMON as opposed to it being out at at a much longer timeframe, I think this shift has a high chance to be reflecting the reality to come.

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3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared. 

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9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

 

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What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well. 

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15 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

The scenarios are not equally devastating.  TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

 

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Isla de La Juventud and Pinar del Rio are about to get a whopping when Ian makes landfall with close to Cat 3 strength. Electric utilities in that part of the island are as poor if not worse than what Puerto Rico has.  Last cane in those areas power was not restored for several weeks. 

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4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well. 

Yep, my in laws have a place right on the water in Port Charlotte. They've been busy the last few days trying to coordinate from Canada. 

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7 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The scenarios are not equally devastating.  TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

 

Point is...a major cane rolling into areas south of Tampa is devastating, a major cane stalling and creeping up the coast weakening is devastating, and landfall on Tampa is devastating. Maybe to be "politically correct" they arent equally devastating but none of those scenarios are better than the other...which was my point. Each scenario brings with it its own catastrophic situation. Whether that be prolonged wind, severe storm surge, catastrophic inland freshwater flooding, etc.

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23 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared. 

I put closed most of our shutters this evening. Also cleaned up the yard and brought stuff inside -- or in a protected area (house covered area in our lanai has hurricane fabric). Tomorrow I just need to close the shutters on the doors and pull the cars into the garage and we're all set.

 

It never hurts to overprepare.

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36 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4).  The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

Charley was a small diameter storm, 5 mile wide eye with a forward speed of 26 MPH, this isn't Charley, 

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