HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Recon shows winds are starting to catch up to the pressure falls, Cat 3 winds higher up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on? Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core. Edit: The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.Curious about the second spike. Anyone wanna chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous surrounding banding features. The overall cloud pattern is quite symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt from the Air Force plane. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during the next couple of days. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected in the short-term official intensity forecast. However, the SHIPS guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours. The NHC forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening. However, Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida west coast. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus predictions. Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around 36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday. This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. 5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river flooding, is likely across Central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.3N 83.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.8N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.5N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 26.1N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 27.2N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 28.6N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 31.3N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChaser4Life Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I was expecting higher winds on 11pm advisory. Not sure it will be a major before hitting Cuba like NHC is forecasting. Cuba will likely halt the intensification and induce some weakening. Curious if we will truly see Ian it hits max potential strength in se Gulf before it encounters more hostile conditions nearing landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 0Z ICON landfall about same place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: 0Z ICON landfall about sane place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChaser4Life Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Eye see you. Pretty confident this is stronger than 105mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Them dots sure are close together. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, jacindc said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Them dots sure are close together. something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something Strong blocking high to the north causes slowdown However decades of sea level rises will increase flooding risks 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something is this incorrect? i thought this was a major part of the latest IPCC report. confused as to why im getting weenie’d. i do not mean to spread misinformation or start anything so please correct me if im wrong, fairly new at this (just graduated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z ICON landfall about sane place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 lol 00z ICON goes for a 2nd landfall at Savannah, GA at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Next pass will be from SW to NE within the hour. Expecting them to find 110-115 MPH storm. IR appearance improving each frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Also, yes Cuba may temporarily disrupt intensification. However, HMON, HWRF, HAFS (not sure how good it is but it's a hurricane model) all show a dramatic expansion of the wind field post Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs. Yep and weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just catching up. Still far away, but the center is now on the BYX (Key West) radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 00z GFS battling west coast at 00z Thursday. A little east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 40 minutes ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: is this incorrect? i thought this was a major part of the latest IPCC report. confused as to why im getting weenie’d. i do not mean to spread misinformation or start anything so please correct me if im wrong, fairly new at this (just graduated) It’s generally seen as a weenie take to attribute the behavior of an individual storm to climate change. The effects of climate change manifest in aggregate trends over years and decades. The connection with individual storms is weak. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Thats a long time Ian is hanging around Tampa with little movement on the 00z GFS... 30 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: It’s generally seen as a weenie take to attribute the behavior of an individual storm to climate change. The effects of climate change manifest in aggregate trends over years and decades. The connection with individual storms is weak. understand the confusion now. thank you. i certainly did not mean to 100% attribute it to climate change, merely link the two as we have seen a major uptick in storms, often including the upper end of storms, slowing down prior to landfall in the past 10-15 years. is all of that due to increased global avg temperatures? of course not. it just contributes to it when conditions are ripe for it, like in this case, irma, harvey, michael, etc. thank you for explaining though, always looking for constructive criticism! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. Dang. That’s like how Harvey was in Houston. Yeesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS landfall Siesta Key. Will be curious to see the ensembles. If they trend east, I would think NHC 5 AM track might be quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Curious about the second spike. Anyone wanna chime in? On the graph? It’s showing what the flight level wind and pressure is doing as the recon flight traverses the storm…..those are twenty minute increments….red is pressure and blue is wind….. wind spikes right before you punch through the eyewall then tanks…..pressure continuously tanks until their heading away from the eye….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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