Hurricane Ian

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I wonder if Ian is going to intensify once it moves northeastward with the trough, because right now it looks like it's about to slam into shear.

 

It was said earlier that that shear is moving with Ian.

[TriPol]

Could be a Charlie redux?

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, AChilders said:

Charley was a small diameter storm, 5 mile wide eye with a forward speed of 26 MPH, this isn't Charley, 

Track wise maybe but this will be a bigger storm and a slow mover as you stated. 

Models might have also overcorrected SE

[ice1972]

24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Thats a pretty dramatic shift this late in the game. 

Not really….there’s a reason NHC cone is a cone

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in east ?

I posted the NAM last night, but only because it was the only 0Z dynamic model before my bedtime.  I'm at work at 6.  

[ice1972]

Sister is in Valrico to the east of Tampa - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It could be dry air, but I might finally be seeing an actual eye on IR satellite.  Looks like the center of cloud motion.

[Weather Mike]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Sister is in Valrico to the east - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah starting to get convection wrapping around center on IR. Here he goes. 

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Not really….there’s a reason NHC cone is a cone

150m shift on the euro inside 3 days is dramatic in my book.  It could obviously shift again. 

 

[TPAwx]

[hooralph]

My father in law is right on a canal in Port Charlotte harbor. Has already declared he’s not evacuating based on the fact that Charley’s surge did not flood the area (he wasn’t there at the time).

[StormChaser4Life]

Eye definitely starting to pop on last frame of IR satellite 

[Weather Mike]

9 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

People in ranch like homes are gone, evacuated 

people like me in newer homes built with hurricane updated codes are staying

most have generators. I don’t and am stupid for not doing so 

built high up so should be ok with high surge but others with older homes are screwed in zone A 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

My father in law is right on a canal in Port Charlotte harbor. Has already declared he’s not evacuating based on the fact that Charley’s surge did flood the area (he wasn’t there at the time).

Did flood? Or did not flood?  If it flooded the area, what kind of reasoning is that? Lol. 

[GaWx]

 If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win.

[hawkeye_wx]

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

[StormChaser4Life]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Microwave data definitely shows that possibility 

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Did flood? Or did not flood?  If it flooded the area, what kind of reasoning is that? Lol. 

Did not… fixed. 
 

reasoning is still awful. But he’s a stubborn redneck. 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

Is the NAM the best to count on at this timeframe for a hurricane compared to other models ? 

Definitely not. The NAM isn’t even good in general for hurricanes. Stick to the globals. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, hooralph said:

Did not… fixed. 
 

reasoning is still awful. But he’s a stubborn redneck. 

Lol..ok thanks, now the post makes more sense.  All the best to him. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Definitely not. The NAM isn’t even good in general for hurricanes.

Not only is it not a hurricane model it really should be a model that is retired.  The NAM in some cases is a useless model. Perhaps it is good for showing dynamics within 24 hours of an event but that's about it. 

[Hoosier]

Not blindly following the NAM, but it highlights the water issues that the Tampa area could still have even in a landfall well south scenario.  There is a lot of qpf near and left of track with this.

[rogue]

Moved to Sarasota 5 years ago. Hate the trends today and tonight. Thought we were going to dodge a bullet again but this seems to have its eye on here. 

[Scott747]

Take the NAM disco to banter.

[NYGiantsFan99]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ? Its a model and the Euro just shifted to it along with the Icon and eps.

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

 

edit: recent meteorology graduate so please correct me if im wrong/spark discussion around it

[Weather Mike]

Just now, NYGiantsFan99 said:

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

Thank you 

i think that’s all we were asking for an intelligent conversation about the NAM which I got deleted and therefore not learning from others on this forum. I don’t agree with some of these moderators deleting post 

[TradeWinds]

https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1574583510647586826?t=fDbooImte-kIuTL96oSmYQ&s=19

[Moderately Unstable]

17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

Current take: no. Too early. Eye too big, storm itself still finalizing getting its act together and has improved substantially in presentation in the last hour vis a vis clear enhancement of angular momentum and closure of the eyewall. Sat presentation continues to improve, best to look at medium term trends rather than minute to minute on H's.