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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just now, ice1972 said:

Sister is in Valrico to the east - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

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1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

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9 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

People in ranch like homes are gone, evacuated 

people like me in newer homes built with hurricane updated codes are staying

most have generators. I don’t and am stupid for not doing so 

built high up so should be ok with high surge but others with older homes are screwed in zone A 

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1 minute ago, hooralph said:

My father in law is right on a canal in Port Charlotte harbor. Has already declared he’s not evacuating based on the fact that Charley’s surge did flood the area (he wasn’t there at the time).

Did flood? Or did not flood?  If it flooded the area, what kind of reasoning is that? Lol. 

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 If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win. ;)

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2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Definitely not. The NAM isn’t even good in general for hurricanes.

Not only is it not a hurricane model it really should be a model that is retired.  The NAM in some cases is a useless model. Perhaps it is good for showing dynamics within 24 hours of an event but that's about it. 

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ? Its a model and the Euro just shifted to it along with the Icon and eps.

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

 

edit: recent meteorology graduate so please correct me if im wrong/spark discussion around it

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Just now, NYGiantsFan99 said:

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

Thank you 

i think that’s all we were asking for an intelligent conversation about the NAM which I got deleted and therefore not learning from others on this forum. I don’t agree with some of these moderators deleting post 

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17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

Current take: no. Too early. Eye too big, storm itself still finalizing getting its act together and has improved substantially in presentation in the last hour vis a vis clear enhancement of angular momentum and closure of the eyewall. Sat presentation continues to improve, best to look at medium term trends rather than minute to minute on H's. 

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