Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It was hanging there like a Rod Beck floater.

Statcast measured the distance at 670 feet...

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Recon won't help with the dual low issue. That is from mesoscale convective processes. 

not at all but it will help to initialize the rest of the data better

[OrangeCTWX]

Did the Jan 7th storm end up chasing that eastward convection? I didn’t care in the end because I got like 9-10 inches but I’m just curious.  

[JC-CT]

"its not resolved!  its not resolved!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Did the Jan 7th storm end up chasing that eastward convection? I didn’t care in the end because I got like 9-10 inches but I’m just curious.  

Yeah, I believe it did

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

What is the deal with these dual lows this year? I don’t remember this being so frequent an issue in years past,  but maybe I just wasn’t paying attention. 
 

Quad lows next winter. 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It is a real issue to resolve.

This is what I think: it's not something that's going to be figured out by models. We just need to watch it develop. 

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It was hanging there like a Rod Beck floater.

Upper deck Beck

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Did the Jan 7th storm end up chasing that eastward convection? I didn’t care in the end because I got like 9-10 inches but I’m just curious.  

yes

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is a real issue to resolve.

It’s entirely fitting that this system is going to keep a critical element to the forecast obscured until the very end. 

[weatherwiz]

Ahhhh the 24-hour out complete shift. I think we all figured some tick east but I think some of this 12z stuff is a bit too aggressive. IMO, we'll see some correction back west in subsequent model runs but we're legit getting into nowcasting and looking at live-data. 

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Quad lows next winter. 

Cool, I'll get the lows in sync with my quadraphonic Blaupunkt in my Porsche 911.

[wxeyeNH]

Well those old runs with the low in the 950's were beautiful.  That would have been a real "wow" if the storm came up just off the Cape with numbers like that.  Now the Euro has a 975mb storm.  Still a blockbuster if we had not been teased so early with those crazy runs.  For my area , Plymouth NH the Euro went from .80 to .30

I have low expectations for my area but still some time for that dual low to consolidate again.  Whatever happens it will be a nice storm for many on the forum.  

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Generator and snowblower are full and have 10 gallons additional gasoline 

[JC-CT]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s entirely fitting that this system is going to keep a critical element to the forecast obscured until the very end. 

ngl, it's a little weird we are calling something that is now consistent on every single model "obscured" or "unresolved"

obviously exactly how much is not going to be perfect, but the dual lows are there

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

18 minutes ago, Hoth said:

However this storm turns out, I’ll need a break after this. What a brutal few days. 

No kidding. I’m absolutely exhausted and I’m a glorified lurker. 

[EastonSN+]

HRRRR looks to have the wobbly dual low structure while the RAP is one intense low. 

MESO battle.

Go Rap.

[Cold Miser]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

What is the deal with these dual lows this year? I don’t remember this being so frequent an issue in years past,  but maybe I just wasn’t paying attention. 
 

Global warming.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

and this is what?

Euro  for Columbia

[Typhoon Tip]

Agree with Scott ..

but again and want to emphasize, the fact that those subsidiary low move around from run to run, is telling.  They don't exist; they "might" in the future. They are entirely AI generated as a function of the powderkeg out there. 

Basically what that means is, we are reliant on those model induced 'fractals.'  The only trouble is, the models don't predict the future emergence of those - not really.  They predict future states based on input parameters, but not the spontaneity of new events.

One run has the dual low here...then it's there. Then the yet another run doesn't have it at all.  All it really signifies is that there is saturation of volatility.

I think also there is some truth to the notion that the models are too good at detecting that volatile states, but are at a limit as to whether a thunderstorm complex will feedback or not ..etc ( to put it simply) so we're getting real coin flip results.

[MegaMike]

Give it until 00 UTC tonight to lower expectations.

Let the storm fully materialize so that data assimilation can work its magic.

I'm not surprised the ECMWF altered its track. Initializing a (relatively) course modeling system (9km, I believe) with a developing/phasing, southern shortwave must be challenging to resolve/parameterize. See the below comment from an NCAR employee: 

I'm more concerned about the mesos depicting the dual low look, but it's perhaps still a little too early for them as well.

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all about that stupid dual low. If guidance is off (whether weaker or barely any semblance of it) that will change the whole evolution. 

500mb is all set up for a whopper yet the mesoscale kicks us in the face

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Convective precip is starting to enter NEXRAD territory

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Euro  for Columbia

15:1 makes much more sense than kuchera

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Generator and snowblower are full and have 10 gallons additional gasoline 

i have beer

[CCHurricane]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yeah.  You can't blame them.  If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future.  Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location.  I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do.

This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event.  This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

This is partially a commentary on the modern news cycle, the need to be first and gain eyes, and the ease at which model output has now become accessible.

In my opinion, even when there is model agreement prior, publicly making available snowfall amount forecasts or maps 18-24 hours prior to an event is irresponsible. We’ve seen time and again how things can shift, and even when Mets explicitly state this people often focus simply on the numbers. 

My two cents: There needs to be a step back to speaking in generalities and the impact, rather than the amount.

-Significant

-Moderate

-Low

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

ngl, it's a little weird we are calling something that is now consistent on every single model "obscured" or "unresolved"

obviously exactly how much is not going to be perfect, but the dual lows are there

Well yeah that’s what I mean. It’s real on the guidance, but the degree matters a lot. 

Each day relatively small shifts have caused various sensible wx scenario changes, especially for central CT & WOR. It’s fitting we see more of it today—though I don’t think it’s as pronounced as others said during melts an hour ago.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

16.6/1.1 isn't 16.6, btw

What?

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

15:1 makes much more sense than kuchera

oh to be born a dendrite and immediately crushed to pieces by the wind

[klw]

22 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

They did another RECON flight?