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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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This is a long lead heads up for a potentially strong cyclone over the eastern U.S./ .. western Atlantic, only.  That said ...it has enough presentation in the various model clusters, and persistence too, to initiate the focus. Though we are far from a deterministic forecast, this system hm has some risk upside.

Short list of notables:

-- this potential begins 7.5 days away for N GA, and perhaps exits Maine D8.5/9.   , ... It's not impossible that this system slows down ( more blw), such that it's into the 31st over the NNE/ME.  It is also potentially a larger system size. By virtue of that alone it may take more than a two periods to completely finish a location.

-- as that suggests, this may impact multiple regions from the interior SE U.S. and up along the I-95 megalopolis to SNE, NH and ME. This is a fluid interpretation/subject to change.  But when we get into multi-region, multi-faceted systems, even a moderate storm aggregates a major problem.

-- may want to check tides/ lunar, as this system may be ISE loaded and should it slow down... it may protract across more than a singe tide cycle. This type of storm, we have no observed in recent years. Unlike last January, when the super synoptic manifold entered a slowing of progression, with relaxing gradient, but no embedded mechanics, this appears attempting to do so.

Concepts:

We've been monitoring this for a week now, and thus it has established history.  Sometimes important events show up at longer leads ... and keep re-appearing - I've been wondering if we're living that.  That would be true if it hits a backyard or not...  Slowly the various ENS means have become more ominously suggestive.   The most recent runs of the GEFs and GEPs ( 18z and 12z respectively..) were still continuing along favorable trends, well established spanning multi cycles. 

image.png.6a9d32a0d7f80c0ae8f850a7970d8cb7.png

The sense here is higher than model-climate odds for a significant system. Where it tracks, I have a couple concerns

-- I am noticing the sensitivity is very related to the progressive, vs slowing ( timing this latter arrival) of the flow character.  Whenever a guidance cycle has reverted back to conserving the progressive character more so, we end up with runs more so ... like the 12z GFS and Euro.  When the subtle pattern change to slow progressivity is apparently directing a give model cycle, we get are bells wrung like the 18z GFS...  Not sure at the moment which way that will go...   I am also noticing there the flow structures over SE Canada having effects on model runs, but that may be related to those same aspects.  This about 50/50 right now. If progressivity persists, this ends up east. If this leitmotif in the ens systems to slow takes place, it would be west because N/S meridian tendencies are increasing, and the system ends up farther W.   My haunch is that the slow idea is real... how much?  It could be damned in between! ugh...  But, if we look upstream, there is an emerging -WPO/-EPO out there D6-10.  That is blocking ...native to that tendency, progressivity tends to slow, and the meridian aspect manifests.   So that's were I lean presently.. We'll see

-- Plus, there is also the S/W mechanics them selves... If there is more N/stream insert, we may see a subsume phase... vs less, like this 18z run.  18z is a purer Miller A.  Should the this slow down and trend Miller B, this is a bright signal and that would likely manifest with equal prominence to put it lightly.  But much of this is also indirectly related to above, as those are larger waves creating constructive vs destructive interference nesting. 

-- The other aspect ...which is highly experimental.. I've been noticing that the last two significant systems we've covered had a tendency to be too far E in ens means, at this range... and eventually, clusters conceded to the higher resolution/physically tested operational version.

 

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Great post Tip but unfortunately it'll end up in a collection of close calls me thinks. 

I see a potential bomb but strongly feel it'll be too far east for most. Trough is displaced east and there isn't a strong blocking pattern to anchor the storm in. 

But hey at least there's something interesting to track. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know Kevin is all in on the light events this season, so glad to see that would continue for him. Few inches for him while Ray Scooter and the rest of the AEMATT crew clean up 2-3 feet 

That's like 8-9 for him, verbatim. Do you not know where he lives?

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Have you not been paying attention? Last nights 0z gave you 3 feet of snow. Literally 3 feet.

I honestly haven’t really been paying attention, it’s over a week away lol. I just happen to be up and on my phone after the game so I checked it out. 
 

I mean, it’s just as likely the storm is gone next run at this lead time. It’s fantasy land 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I honestly haven’t really been paying attention, it’s over a week away lol. I just happen to be up and on my phone after the game so I checked it out. 
 

I mean, it’s just as likely the storm is gone next run at this lead time. It’s fantasy land 

You're killing it tonight. Yes, it will probably completely vanish at 6z.

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This run compared to last run … if you click back-and-forth you can really see how the sensitivity is purely related to the progressivity of a flow (less to more); in any one of those paradigms there’s a significant storm and possibly a major one …but it where?  It comes down to a matter of that maddening yo-yo with what’s surrounding it. 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know Kevin is all in on the light events this season, so glad to see that would continue for him. Few inches for him while Ray Scooter and the rest of the AEMATT crew clean up 2-3 feet 

Beer

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This run compared to last run … if you click back-and-forth you can really see how the sensitivity is purely related to the progressivity of a flow (less to more); in any one of those paradigms there’s a significant storm and possibly a major one …but it where?  It comes down to a matter of that maddening yo-yo with what’s surrounding it. 

Cmc joining the party? I love these black and white maps

 

495_100.gif

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...
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