July 2021

[gravitylover]

Feels like summer outside  Quite the improvement over the last few days but this is warm enough. lol

[binbisso]

15 hours ago, SACRUS said:

7/14

EWR: 93
PHL: 93
ACY: 92
LGA: 91
New Brnswck: 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
NYC: 87
JFK: 86

 Can you explain to me how we're in a warm to hot pattern when through the 1st 15 days of July almost all reporting stations are between  -1 and  -2.5 including  Connecticut.  Maybe you mean Newark and central New Jersey  which still is not a hot pattern as most of those locations are around plus 1. 

[RedSky]

20 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Can you explain to me how we're in a warm to hot pattern when through the 1st 15 days of July almost all reporting stations are between  -1 and  -2.5 including  Connecticut.  Maybe you mean Newark and central New Jersey  which still is not a hot pattern as most of those locations are around plus 1. 

It's been a strange heart attack pattern of cloudy below normal days and showery days alternating with 90's never seen anything like it. 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 Can you explain to me how we're in a warm to hot pattern when through the 1st 15 days of July almost all reporting stations are between  -1 and  -2.5 including  Connecticut.  Maybe you mean Newark and central New Jersey  which still is not a hot pattern as most of those locations are around plus 1. 

Yeah I think we need to update the terminology. By default it's always going to be warm to hot in July. 

Upper 80s to low 90s is not that far from normal. When I think hot I think minimum 95+ like we'll see tomorrow. 

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I think we need to update the terminology. By default it's always going to be warm to hot in July. 

Upper 80s to low 90s is not that far from normal. When I think hot I think minimum 95+ like we'll see tomorrow. 

I think Philly's new average for the warmest part of the year is now 89.  

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I think we need to update the terminology. By default it's always going to be warm to hot in July. 

Upper 80s to low 90s is not that far from normal. When I think hot I think minimum 95+ like we'll see tomorrow. 

That's why I don't think of 90 for 3 days as a heatwave especially for places like ewr

[dWave]

9 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I think Philly's new average for the warmest part of the year is now 89.  

Sounds right..fits the progression up I 95. DC max normal high is 90 now, for most of July. First time they ever had a 90 "normal." LGA tops out at 87 (up 1 degree). Central Park tops out at 85, also up 1 degree. I remember the normal high at the Park used to be 86 though back in the 90s

[Dark Star]

48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's why I don't think of 90 for 3 days as a heatwave especially for places like ewr

I would think the heatwave alerts are more geared for health reasons and not meant to be defined for climatology reasons?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

I would think the heatwave alerts are more geared for health reasons and not meant to be defined for climatology reasons?

1 or 2 98 degree days can be much worse than 3 consecutive 91 degree days but would not qualify as a heatwave 

[Intensewind002]

87/67 right now, yesterday felt worse with the 75 dewpoint

[nycwinter]

does not feel as bad as i thought it would feel..must be diminished sun angle now that we are in mid july..

[RippleEffect]

Back to the island east Hampton area. Very warm day here with a temperature of 82 degrees!

[bluewave]

We have had so much record July heat since 2010, that the new 30 year climate normals have risen from 77.4 to 78.2 at Newark. So Newark only needs a +1.8 July departure for a top 10 warmest 80° or higher July. That’s why using departures can really underestimate heat in a warming climate.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&station=USW00014734

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0

[LoboLeader1]

90/73 here, very uncomfortable to be working outdoors today.

[doncat]

85/74 currently...Hi of 89 earlier with a weak onshore flow.

[CIK62]

4 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I would think the heatwave alerts are more geared for health reasons and not meant to be defined for climatology reasons?

The real reason may be Con Ed's desire to declare "Power Conservation" requests continuously by using an expected 3 consecutive days as the criteria.         Back in the 60's heatwaves were 5-Straight 90's around these parts.     With fewer AC's in use, Con Ed could handle it.     Naturally 3 straight days would occur more  often than 5 days.        Con Ed got the NWS (or was it still the Weather Bureau?) to go along with this reduction to 3 days by the 70's.            Dallas must use 3 or 5 expected 100's in a row, lest their whole summer would be  a HW etc..    

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 57%

[lee59]

Nice to see the southwest United States not having heat advisories. Phoenix expecting temperatures around 102-104 for the next number of days. Their average high is 104.

[lee59]

Hit 90 degrees here today, 8th time this season I have hit 90.

[bluewave]

Looks like the record heat will be focused over Montana next week.

EPS July 19-26

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

Aside from the Montana area a sizable portion of the US could be below average. That’s a welcomed relief/needed short reprieve...

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had so much record July heat since 2010, that the new 30 year climate normals have risen from 77.4 to 78.2 at Newark. So Newark only needs a +1.8 July departure for a top 10 warmest 80° or higher July. That’s why using departures can really underestimate heat in a warming climate.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&station=USW00014734

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0

This is a good point…and gives good perspective. We are in a warmer, more humid climate.

We are really tracking weather here not climate. We talk climate for historical perspective, hence the top 10 charts…but when talking about weather, we need to use a universal baseline, if not we will have chaos on the forum.

As another poster said, July has been cooler than normal for most of the region…with normal being the new 30 year averages. 
 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

7/15

TEB: 94
New Brnswck: 91
LGA: 91
EWR: 91
PHL: 91
ACY: 90
TTN: 90
BLM: 88
ISP: 88
NYC: 88
JFK: 87

[donsutherland1]

The thermometer soared into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 15):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 13 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 24 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 13 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 6 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 17 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 13 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 13 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 10 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 22 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 18 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 20 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 13 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 13 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The weekend could see more clouds and perhaps thundershowers.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +37.86 today. That is the highest SOI value since January 15, 2014 when the SOI was +50.17.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.750 today.

On July 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.941 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.091 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the record heat will be focused over Montana next week.

EPS July 19-26

 

 

Some climate data for Billings:

[SACRUS]

8 hours ago, binbisso said:

 Can you explain to me how we're in a warm to hot pattern when through the 1st 15 days of July almost all reporting stations are between  -1 and  -2.5 including  Connecticut.  Maybe you mean Newark and central New Jersey  which still is not a hot pattern as most of those locations are around plus 1. 

Overall warm to hot pattern. 3 days are bringing the monthly departures down 11 of the 15 at EWR and other stations are above the daily averages.  Cooler summers like 2004, 2009, 2000 didnt have the persistent warmth of this Jun and Jul (so far).  We'll see how cool we can get 7.23 - 725.

[uncle W]

Newark NJ is averaging close to 79.0 degrees for July...since 1950 the average is 77.7...last year averaged 80.8...many more 80's for the average in recent years compared to the 50's-70's...

1950-59..........76.82

1960-69..........76.10

1970-79..........77.27

1980-89..........78.31

1990-99..........78.72

2000-09..........76.63

2010-19...........79.87

[Rtd208]

A very uncomfortable night out there.

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 81/DP 72/RH 75%

 

Expecting some bouts of heavy rain over the weekend w/severe storms possible as well.

[Rjay]

Gross night outside. 

[qg_omega]

It’s odd, we have had some hot days but I wouldn’t call this a hot summer by any stretch, July averaging below normal at most climate sites