Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,911
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    GRMNSnowDay
    Newest Member
    GRMNSnowDay
    Joined

Recommended Posts

  • Rjay pinned this topic
25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

another atlantic ridge episode being hinted at on the eps

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_fh192-240 (1).gif

last day on your map is july 10 by that time  the sun sets at 828 pm.. already we  have lost 3 minutes on the back end of daylight from june 21..

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today

Our next bout of extreme heat and chances for 100 degree temps to the coast?

If it does happen I think it will be after July 20th.  The heat post July 4th I've been looking at looks like it wont be at these extreme levels (low 90s perhaps?) and then it looks like we'll have a slight cool down (upper 70s and low 80s) going into the following weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

June ended at 74.3[+2.3].

The first 8 days of July are averaging 76degs.(67/84), or slightly BN.

It should be raining by early afternoon.

GFS,CMC have TS near EC for 7/7-9.    EURO is earlier, weaker and completely OTS.

76*(85%RH) here at 6am., scattered clouds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and cooler today, but still warm. Showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.6°

Daily Rainfall Records for July 1:

New York City-JFK: 1.04”, 1960

New York City-LGA: 1.12”, 1971

Newark: 1.22”, 1971

Three-day rainfall through Friday will likely reach a general 1.00”-2.00” with some locally higher amounts. Highest amounts could exceed 3.00”.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 82.4°
Average temperature: 82.5°
Average error: 1.2°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 86.9°
Average temperature: 86.5°
Average error: 1.4°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 84.5°
Average temperature: 85.6°
Average error: 0.9°

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, lee59 said:

As hot as it was at times in June, the average temp was only between 1 and 2.3 degrees above normal at Bridgeport, Islip, Kennedy, Laguardia and Central Park. Then you have Newark, that was 3.5 degrees above normal.

The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1994 77.8 0
2 2021 76.2 0
- 2010 76.2 0
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1943 76.2 0
2 1966 75.4 0
3 1994 75.2 0
4 2010 74.7 0
- 1899 74.7 0
5 1984 74.5 0
6 2021 74.3 0
- 1957 74.3 0
- 1925 74.3 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1943 76.4 0
2 2010 76.0 0
3 2020 75.9 0
4 2008 75.7 0
5 2021 75.6 0
- 1994 75.6 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 71.9 0
- 1999 71.9 0
2 2008 71.6 0
3 1994 71.3 0
4 2001 70.9 0
5 2020 70.7 0
6 2021 70.6 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2008 72.2 0
2 2010 71.8 0
3 1994 71.7 0
4 1957 71.6 0
5 2021 71.5 0
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Western Atlantic Ridge slipping east and with it comes 2-3 days of storms and some heavy rains.  Clouds about an hour to two away, storms coming in this PM and period of storms and rain next 48 - 72 hours should put up some nice totals.  Saturday looks cloudy and much cooler where  highs could be stuck in the 60s and in the extreme EWR 103 (Wed) and maybe mid 60s (Sat) a near 40 degree difference.  Models still showing an unsettled Sunday morning but overall Fourth of July looks like light / widely scattered shower AM and then some in the evening.  The last day of the of fourth of July weekend (Monday) starts a return to warmth and heat / humidity as heights come up.

Piece of the western heat which the southwest / rockies heat dome pulses up,  pushes east Jul 6 - 9, humidity returns as heights increase with more 90s likely.  Tues and Wed look very hot.  More widespread  pop up storms Tue night (7/6) - Wed (7/7) and Thu (7/8) before we watch remnants or possibly intact Elois.

Overall warm to hot pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Our next bout of extreme heat and chances for 100 degree temps to the coast?

If it does happen I think it will be after July 20th.  The heat post July 4th I've been looking at looks like it wont be at these extreme levels (low 90s perhaps?) and then it looks like we'll have a slight cool down (upper 70s and low 80s) going into the following weekend.

Tue/ Wed 850 temps look >18c, pending on when clouds/storms may form could yield some mid to perhaps upper 90s.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

As hot as it was at times in June, the average temp was only between 1 and 2.3 degrees above normal at Bridgeport, Islip, Kennedy, Laguardia and Central Park. Then you have Newark, that was 3.5 degrees above normal.

PHL:  +1.6F

ABE:  +0.4F

ACY:  +1.3F

ILG:   +1.2F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Newark made it to 103°yesterday for a new all-time June monthly maximum temperature. This was matched by the new Corona, Queens micronet station. Several other stations reached 100° also. So Essex and Queens counties were the warmest around the area in June.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 103 0
2 2011 102 0
- 1994 102 0
- 1993 102 0
- 1952 102 0
- 1943 102 0
3 1988 101 0
- 1966 101 0
4 1959 100 0
- 1953 100 0
- 1934 100 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 101 0
- 1952 101 0
2 2021 100 0
- 2008 100 0


https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc

Corona 103
Astoria 100
Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Saturday temps might break some record low max's in the area if some models are correct.  July 3rd at KLGA and KJFK is 71.

that will probably come down to whether it's raining or not....some models have an area of rain but the placement varies

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

PHL:  +1.6F

ABE:  +0.4F

ACY:  +1.3F

ILG:   +1.2F

 

Remember that is based off of the 1990-2020 numbers, we no longer use the 1980-2010 records as of this year...I am sure if you ran the departures from 1980-2010 the numbers area wide appear different...the real metric is what @bluewave posted, where the month ranks in actual monthly temperature. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...