July 2021

[forkyfork]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
2021	74.4	71.2	72.8
1976	73.4	72.9	73.2
1930	72.4	72.8	72.6
1994	71.9	77.5	74.7
1949	71.6	76.3	73.9
1957	71.3	74.1	72.7
2001	71.1	69.9	70.5

the next hot spell looks to start in about a week on the ensembles. maybe the western ridge can flatten enough for 100

[lee59]

I was just down in North Carolina and it was some 10-15 degrees warmer than on Long Island today. It feels hotter and more uncomfortable here than there.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what about December 2015 for us, how far above normal was that?  And conversely, the cold of February 2015?

 

Both were 3 sigma events.

[nycwinter]

feels nice 73 degrees  at the time of day in mid july i will take it..

[dWave]

Another day with backdoor kind of feel in mid summer. Cloudy, periods of rain and drizzle all day temps stuck in low 70s.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, dWave said:

Another day with backdoor kind of feel in mid summer. Cloudy, periods of rain and drizzle all day temps stuck in low 70s.

you have rain/drizzle?   Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76.  Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is.

[forkyfork]

even on a non backdoor front day there's a divide near the city. these patterns can't unstick themselves

[gravitylover]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you have rain/drizzle?   Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76.  Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is.

It has been in and out drizzle all day here, the last shower went through around 2.

[Poker2015]

its been sunny most of the day out here and 86.3 degrees now

[doncat]

Had a brief shower a short time ago...hi temp of 80°.

[LoboLeader1]

Sun was out earlier this afternoon, clouds have now taken over. Currently 79 here, DP 64/ RH 66  

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 88 here.

Current temp 86/DP 63/RH 46%

[gravitylover]

Once that last shower went thru around 2 it cleared up, dried out and got kinda nice. 

[lee59]

78 degrees here, dew point 70, humidity 76%, feels better than early this morning.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds broke during the afternoon and temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower to middle 80s. In Montana, extreme heat prevailed. Glasgow reached 110°, which broke the daily record of 107° from 1941. The 110° temperature was the 3rd highest on record. At Boise, the overnight low temperature was 80°. The previous daily record high minimum temperature was 72°, which was set in 1877 and tied in 1918 and 2009.

Tomorrow will feature hazy sunshine and very warm temperatures. The haze will be the result of wildfires burning in the U.S. and Canadian West. Temperatures will surge into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +8.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.722 today.

On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.307 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.999 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/19

PHL: 88
TTN: 86
EWR: 86
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
TEB: 83
JFK: 82
LGA: 82
NYC: 81
ISP: 81

[wdrag]

SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward.  Will detail a little more around 730A. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/92), or +3        Same proviso as yesterday here.

Month to date is  76.4[-1.0].        Should be 77.5[+0 3] by the 28th.

Near 90 today with few clouds till late today.            

74*(80%RH) here at 6am, dirty blue.      80* by 10am.       82* by Noon.          83* by 2pm.---dirty sky, dirty air.       Reached 86*.

[bluewave]

Thickest smoke of the year so far looks like a milky thin overcast. 

 

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thickest smoke of the year so far looks like a milky thin overcast. 

 

How the sun looks through it

[donsutherland1]

Sunrise through the thick wildfire smoke:

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Smoke from the western wildfires will dim the sunshine. It will be hazy and very warm with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. Some thunderstorms are possible late in the day or at night.

[SRRTA22]

58 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

How the sun looks through it

Its planet X!  great photos don and dmills

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the more impressive MJO 5 summer patterns that we have seen in a while. It keeps the heat dome over the Rockies and Upper Plains. The Atlantic tropical action also gets shut down for a while with plenty of Saharan dust.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Jul 20th -  1010 AM 82/63 - and shaping up as a fantastic summer day.   Warmer spots could get low 90s and most other stations near or at 90.  More of the same tomorrow before the front comes through so pending on when clouds arrive for chances at 90.  

 

Beyond there  Thu (7/22) through Sat (7/24) drier and cooler air for a few days as the Western Ridge continues to produce some high heat.  Pieces of that heat are expanding east by Sunday (7/25) and despite the weak trough into the northeast some of that heat will get into the area.  Into the final week of the month (Mon) 7/26 - Fri (7/30) heights flatten a bit and some of the stronger heat may come in pieces that week.  It'll be interesting to see where the line between the seasonal warmth and heat setsup PHL south or NY south.

Way out there The western atlantic ridge may be nosing back into the west coast to open next month.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the more impressive MJO 5 summer patterns that we have seen in a while. It keeps the heat dome over the Rockies and Upper Plains. The Atlantic tropical action also gets shut down for a while with plenty of Saharan dust.

 

July usually isn't that busy. August is when things start heating up in the tropics.

[bluewave]

Visibility steadily dropping with all the smoke. Some local stations are actually under 5 miles now. You can smell the smoke outside.

20 Jul 10:53 am	81	66	62	WNW	7		4.00	Haze	CLR	29.46		29.95
20 Jul 9:53 am	79	66	65	N	CALM		5.00	Haze	CLR	29.46		29.95
20 Jul 8:53 am	75	66	74				6.00	Haze	CLR	29.46		29.95
20 Jul 7:53 am	72	66	83	SW	5		7.00		CLR

 

[jm1220]

Yep. Smells like a campfire here with thick haze. Crazy to think of how far away it came from. 

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

July usually isn't that busy. August is when things start heating up in the tropics.

yep give or take 8/20 to about 10/10 for us to get something historically

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Jul 20th -  1010 AM 82/63 - and shaping up as a fantastic summer day.   Warmer spots could get low 90s and most other stations near or at 90.  More of the same tomorrow before the front comes through so pending on when clouds arrive for chances at 90.  

 

Beyond there  Thu (7/22) through Sat (7/24) drier and cooler air for a few days as the Western Ridge continues to produce some high heat.  Pieces of that heat are expanding east by Sunday (7/25) and despite the weak trough into the northeast some of that heat will get into the area.  Into the final week of the month (Mon) 7/26 - Fri (7/30) heights flatten a bit and some of the stronger heat may come in pieces that week.  It'll be interesting to see where the line between the seasonal warmth and heat setsup PHL south or NY south.

Way out there The western atlantic ridge may be nosing back into the west coast to open next month.

Not sure those temps are realized with all the smoke, almost cloudy out