Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,003
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

two myths killed this Summer so far...11 year hot summer cycle and the 17 year Cicada bug cycle...

Where the @%$$!!! are the Cicadas?   

By the way, looks like some showers working their way down from Summit towards Cranford and maybe Westfield NJ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny with temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. However, the heat will be creeping northward and the temperature could reach or exceed 90° in Baltimore and/or Washington, DC.

Out West, the ongoing monsoon event is the big weather story. Through 8 pm, Phoenix had received 0.79" of rain, which exceeded the daily record of 0.41" from 2002. Even more impressive, the high temperature through 8 pm was 83°, which would be the coldest maximum temperature since July 31, 1964. In addition, several July hourly low temperature marks were set.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.743 today.

On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.738 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.805 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later.

 

 

 

 

isnt this a 1950s pattern with all the TC and June heat?

We said this last year too

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

Going by number of 90 degree highs, the decade of the 1990s dwarfs everything else.  Also 2010 is still the summer of record going by number of 90 degree and 100 degree days.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

Thanks, do you have a number of 90 degree day and number of 100 degree day info for those too?

The top three are part of the 11 yr cycle which is highly impressive.

I'll give you a list of my top summers and can you find out if all of those are la ninas too?  We've been in a la nina pattern haven't we?  So why isn't this summer very hot too?

Here's my list of extremely hot summers I've experienced.

1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010.  See how many of them are in the 90s :)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

1980 was amazing, it was already very hot in July and August got even hotter and averaged close to 81 wow.....

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last 8 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/89), or +2.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.2].          July should end near  77.0[-0.5].

70*(70%RH) here at 6am., m. clear.           Reached 79* at 4pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Going by number of 90 degree highs, the decade of the 1990s dwarfs everything else.  Also 2010 is still the summer of record going by number of 90 degree and 100 degree days.

 

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No svr thread at this time for Sunday... possible SVR, but marginal instability including late arriving CAPE, and wind fields aloft to 500 MB/TT basically below 30 kt and 49C.  Doesn't mean it won't happen but would rather post if SPC D2 or D1 is Slight Risk (not marginal).  

EC is a little more promising middle of next week with stronger wind fields aloft. 

Nothing very exciting popping out at me through the first week of August up here.  Maybe this will change?

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and a bit warmer than yesterday. Humidity will still be fairly low and temperatures will rise to the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.9°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. A shower or thundershower is possible.

In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce additional significant monsoon rainfall.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.
  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Why cant the NWS hire someone to clear the brush if the Park Conservancy wont do it?  And did the Park Conservancy give a reason as to why they wont do it?

Also why not relocate the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?  The equipment has been relocated before within the Park hasn't it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

But what about for JFK?  If they are #1 during the 2010s it's because of how hot the early part of the period was (2010-2013).

Inland locations are definitely getting hotter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

I dont understand why it's so difficult to get these people to chop off some vegetation.  Otherwise just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow.  Neither should be a big deal.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

 

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

 

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

80 / 58 and a very nice summer day.  Reminds me of the So Cal warmth.  Tomorrow once we get through any storms shoudl start an (overall) warmer - hot period Sunday (7/25) - the next week.  850 temps looks to rise to >15c and some guidance brings in spatters of 18c in the period.  On e rim of the ridge and heat spread from the west.  Warmer spots should notch at least 4 90 degree days but the strongest heat is south of the region for the most part.  There will be some interruptions of heat with the n/nnw flow mid week or late week before another brief surge of warmer to hot air later next weekend 7/30 and into early August.  Then need to watch the W Atlantic Ridge and if the Rockies ridge can surge more heat east.  Till then today should be a enjoyable one!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:
Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

 

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

 

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

NY has too many skyscrapers already.  These new rectangular shaped monstrosities are disgusting, built by the rich for the rich.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the 11 yr summer is happening out west and the cicadas are down south lol

 

Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep.  EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30.  We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep.  EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30.  We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.

Sounds very 1953-like.  What happened so late in the season to make it so hot that year?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But what about for JFK?  If they are #1 during the 2010s it's because of how hot the early part of the period was (2010-2013).

Inland locations are definitely getting hotter.

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...