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Big 500 mb pattern change this July compared to 2018-2020.The record WAR, which dominated in recent years, was finally dwarfed by the ridge over Western North America. So the Northeast is experiencing a cooler July than the last three years.

C3050837-9C6C-4C48-85C3-87CC9EB5B1AB.gif.25f521a51d8f265522d1f94de7b608b8.gif
253792B9-AC42-43E6-9D65-0CDD09F82E7A.png.a5f7ac9babc53d3e873a9b385cf9f521.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Big 500 mb pattern change this July compared to 2018-2020.The record WAR, which dominated in recent years, was finally dwarfed by the ridge over Western North America. So the Northeast is experiencing a cooler July than the last three years.

the upcoming pattern reminds me of the late april to mid may cooler interlude before the june hot spell

comphour.ldKlhO20ls.gif

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59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the upcoming pattern reminds me of the late april to mid may cooler interlude before the june hot spell

comphour.ldKlhO20ls.gif

It will be interesting to see if we eventually get a ridge rebound in August. The latest EPS weeklies continue with the New England trough theme into early August. I don’t think that the New England crew was expecting this after the warmest June on record.

Jul 26-Aug 2

C6560EEA-A909-4A7F-AFE0-0F62BE66CB0F.thumb.png.e9842a95b1aa33c798709cbaa2d9fcd2.png
 

Aug 2-Aug 9

422E2998-7E6A-41F0-B66E-C2FBE4C2EDC2.thumb.png.0c78785cf031222c5ef0f0ad22a2a486.png

 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if we eventually get a ridge rebound in August. The latest EPS weeklies continue with the New England trough theme into early August. I don’t think that the New England crew was expecting this after the warmest June on record.

Jul 26-Aug 2

C6560EEA-A909-4A7F-AFE0-0F62BE66CB0F.thumb.png.e9842a95b1aa33c798709cbaa2d9fcd2.png
 

Aug 2-Aug 9

422E2998-7E6A-41F0-B66E-C2FBE4C2EDC2.thumb.png.0c78785cf031222c5ef0f0ad22a2a486.png

 

looks like a continuation of the stormy pattern with the polar front nearby

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DON''T GET SCARED, THIS IS FOR DALLAS.          A TRACE OF RAIN  ONLY FOR THE 16 DAY PERIOD TO BOOT.        About 84/100.        Seems they do not have a single 100 to their credit this season, just 40 90's.

We should be about 71/89 for the next 15 with just an inch of rain.

1626955200-FeAcMuUAFck.png

 

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A period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +16.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.951 today.

On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.812 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.718 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

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SPC with a marginal risk for SVR Sunday mainly northern part of the subforum.  I like it.  Would have started a thread today but for the errant thread on the missed SVR of earlier this week (20th-21st for our subforum.  Gives more time to look but suspect will need a thread Saturday morning for Sunday. 

Screen Shot 2021-07-23 at 5.56.54 AM.png

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9 hours ago, uncle W said:

this will be the coolest July for the 11 year hot Summer cycle since 1933...

Year July...

1933...75.8

1944...79.4

1955...80.9

1966...79.7

1977...79.0

1988...79.3

1999...81.4

2010...81.3...

2021...76.8?..

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and comfortable. Humidity will be low and temperatures will rise to the lower and perhaps middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 89.0°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued pleasant.

In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce significant monsoon rainfall, with the heaviest amounts falling through tomorrow morning. Both Phoenix and Tucson could pick up 0.50”-1.00” rain during this by the end of tomorrow. Already, Phoenix has received 0.21” of rain.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unless we generate a Martian greenhouse effect I don't see how it would become more habitable.

If you mean a billion+ years from now when the sun's luminosity increases then maybe. 

And that's only the temperature we still have the lack of oxygen problem, radiation and other poisonous gases to deal with. 

a billion years ago venus was in the habitable zone earth was not then earth moved in the habitable zone venus started burning a billion years from now earth will start burning and mars will move into the habitable zone temp wise now mars needs t be terraformed for a atmosphere if it is even possible

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unless we generate a Martian greenhouse effect I don't see how it would become more habitable.

If you mean a billion+ years from now when the sun's luminosity increases then maybe. 

And that's only the temperature we still have the lack of oxygen problem, radiation and other poisonous gases to deal with. 

exactly the suns gets hotter in time but venus and mars were totally different venus had oceans of water just like earth.. mars does not..

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2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Macys was playing christmas music earlier yesterday. Too damn early.

Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later.

 

 

 

 

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Great summer weather Fri / Sat before we warm back up Sun (7/25) - Thu (7/29)   Strongest heat nearby (plenty of it feeding in from the Rockies ridge)  but still plenty of >15C temps and W/NW flow should yield more 90s and perhaps one stronger heat day where the hot spots could touch mid / upper 90s.  Beyond there cooler end to the month and we'll see if the W. Atlantic Ridge builds back west into the EC.  

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

a billion years ago venus was in the habitable zone earth was not then earth moved in the habitable zone venus started burning a billion years from now earth will start burning and mars will move into the habitable zone temp wise now mars needs t be terraformed for a atmosphere if it is even possible

Personally I don't think humans have to fear climate change. Don't get me wrong we should do what we can to prevent it, but it is gradual and we can change with it. I think what we should be most looking out for is a meteor. Like the dinosaurs it can end us almost immediately. By the way, I think if the earth could talk, when people say we have to safe the earth, the earth would laugh and say no way you can destroy me. We can destroy ourselves but not the earth.

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