July 2021

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Wow my post disappeared lol, Take two.....

What about 90 degree highs at JFK?

The only two record holders I know of are 2010 and 1983 before that.

1983 was an amazing year when you think about it, the only 20 inch snowstorm of the decade here, the wettest year on record by a mile with 80 inches of rain and the hottest and most humid summer on record up to that point.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

A bomb testing...

I was thinking that amazingly hot summer in 1908 might be because of the Tunguska event lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Conversely looks like LGA rose more than the other stations, is that because of more urbanization?  I always see a spike in my car thermometer when I drive through there, even more than in Manhattan or New Jersey for that matter.

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Thank you for the fine summary. It seems the best that can be said for the NWS regarding the CPK ASOS is to use a, Daniel Patrick Moynihan phrase, “benign neglect” is their action and reaction. Sad, very sad. As always….

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, rclab said:

Thank you for the fine summary. It seems the best that can be said for the NWS regarding the CPK ASOS is to use a, Daniel Patrick Moynihan phrase, “benign neglect” is their action and reaction. Sad, very sad. As always….

You could probably do a a documentary on all the problems that the Central Park station has had over the years.

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

Besides taking New York City's temperature and trying to predict when it will go up or down. National Weather Service forecasters are searching for a new place in Central Park to keep the sensitive instruments they use to prepare their hourly reports.

“It's really a sh‐me, but we have to move,” said Harold Gibson, the meteorologist in charge of the New York bureau, as he stepped carefully through the debris at the crumbling Belvedere Castle, where weather data is collected and transmitted electronically to Weather Service headquarters in Rockefeller Center.

Mr. Gibson said he decided to leave the hilltop castle, which is the highest point in the park, because he cannot predict the frequency of break‐ins that interrupt the monitoring of temperature, humidity, sunlight and wind at the unmanned station in the unguarded, city‐owned castle, which is south of the Delacorte Theater at 79th Street on the west side of the park.

Vandalism Disrupts Work

“Mostly we suffer from malicious destruction,” Mr. Gibson said. “The problem up here can be as little as somebody pulling a circuit‐breaker switch that stops the current and halts the measurements. But from our standpoint, that's almost as bad as stealing all the equipment—it disrupts our work.”

The last break‐in occurred two weeks ago. The thermometer was not damaged, but the anemometer, which meastures wind speeds, was stolen, and other equipment has not functioned properly since.

Some of the forecasters work in windowless rooms and cannot tell whether the sun is shining without the Central Park equipment. As a result, visitors to the Weather Service office at Rockefeller Center are sometimes asked what the weather outside is like.

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

During the current hot spell, the Weather Service has used wind and humidity readings from La Guardia in its forecasts. Replacing the Central Park equipment is fairly expensive—an anemometer costs about $2.500, Mr. Gibson said—but the forecasers arc reluctant to install replacements because they fear another break‐in.

“Whoever does this to us is speedy,” Mr. Gibson said, recalling_ one break‐in that had occurred in the morning. By 2:30 P.M. the repairs were completed. No sooner was the 4 P.M. forecast released than the new equipment was stolen.

The police have increased the number of patrols passing the castle, and that has deterred some vandals, Mr. Gibson said. And the Parks Department put steel gratings over the windows after vandals smashed through the concrete blocks that had been installed in place of the semicircular windows.

“Clearly, that's not enough,” said Joseph P. Bresnan, director of historic parks, monuments and restoration. “That building should be used.”

Meanwhile, the stonework at the castle, which was designed by Calvert Vaux, a collaborator wtih Frederick Law Olmsted on the design of Central Park, has been frescoed with graffiti.

A $557,000 project to restore the castle, the top priority item in a 1973 study of Central Park, has been put off indefinitely because of the city's economic problems.

One possible site for housing the sensitive instruments is the roof of the Central Park Precinct station house, which the police have offered. It is only a short distance from the castle, and meteorologists think the climate conditions there are almost identical to those at Belvedere, where weather data have been gathered for 109 years.

“It would be almost criminal to destroy the century‐old data base we have accumulated here at Central Pork.” Mr. Gibson said. “It is one of the best in the United States, or, for that matter, in the world.”

[LibertyBell]

See, they've relocated the instruments before and can do so again.

They need to stop this religious adherence to Central Park.

 

[LibertyBell]

I had to laugh when he said LGA may be several degrees cooler than Central Park in the summer lol; my, how times have changed!

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was thinking that amazingly hot summer in 1908 might be because of the Tunguska event lol.

 

Nuclear bomb testing in the 1950's charged the atmosphere and caused changes in weather patterns thousands of miles from the test sites. - Reeko's Mad Scientist Lab (reekoscience.com)

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

Nuclear bomb testing in the 1950's charged the atmosphere and caused changes in weather patterns thousands of miles from the test sites. - Reeko's Mad Scientist Lab (reekoscience.com)

wow we got the opposite of nuclear winter, we had a nuclear late summer and early fall!  I think hydrogen fusion bombs were being tested by then too

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I had to laugh when he said LGA may be several degrees cooler than Central Park in the summer lol; my, how times have changed!

 

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, impressive gradient for late July.

 

Winds are there for Thursday, as TT as well...  little early to get too committed. Timing might not be quite ideal.

I noticed the afternoon outlook hasn't changed for tomorrow- tho some of the modeling is trying to get isolated or sct potentially svr storms going I80 south.  So for now, all quiet from myself on the threads.  

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

Why cant they just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

Heat is now referred to the same way snowstorms are.  "More/higher to the west."  Inland areas are where all the action is now, aside from the rogue storm that hits the East End lol.  I now hear "inland heatwaves" in the summer as much as I hear "inland snowstorms" in the winter.

 

[nycwinter]

when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why cant they just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?

I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations.

[uncle W]

the foliage keeps night time lows up a little too...one reason they won't use the sheep meadow is possible vandalism...

[uncle W]

47 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's

in the 60's the question would be when was the last time NYC had four straight days with dew points above the 50's...

[wdrag]

RE: Thu July 29 SVR: Monitoring Gust algorithm of the EC...poking 30s knots here in the subforum.  That is significant for a non-TC/non Synoptic Scale Winter event...especially 6 days in advance. Will monitor cyclically and see if it holds. 

[the_other_guy]

80F

 

Today reminds me of what summer days out on Eastern Long Island used to be like: temperate days, cool nights, rarely needed the AC at night.

Geez, the climate out here has changed so drastically in such a short time…it is scary. It is all in the dewpoint and most of it is in the last 20 years.

[doncat]

81/62 temp split today...nice last three days.

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 80s at the New York Botanical Garden.

 

[stemwinder]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

"***( 

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

***"
Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Sheesh! Central Park is a great place.  But that blows my mind.  Probably economy and budget issues, cum bureaucracy at its worst.   Pity the poor Mets who get blamed.   No met for 60 miles.  

 

[bluewave]

This would be a great winter pattern. 

 

[psv88]

Was at smith point park on the beach today. Perfect beach day. Can’t draw it up any better 

[donsutherland1]

A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.576 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.726 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/24

PHL: 86
EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 85
NYC: 84
TTN: 83
TEB: 83
LGA: 83
JFK: 82
ISP: 81
BLM: 80

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations.

a better idea might be to have a back up weather station installed elsewhere in the Park (like in the Sheep Meadow) and use that data to correct the other one.  Of course installing a second unit there would require $$$$$

Why did we switch to  ASOS?  The old way was more accurate.  Automation = laziness.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, nycwinter said:

when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's

earlier in the month lol.  I think they were in the 30s and 40s?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

in the 60's the question would be when was the last time NYC had four straight days with dew points above the 50's...

those must have been some amazing years

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, stemwinder said:

Sheesh! Central Park is a great place.  But that blows my mind.  Probably economy and budget issues, cum bureaucracy at its worst.   Pity the poor Mets who get blamed.   No met for 60 miles.  

 

they all moved to the suburbs- I do blame them for doing that