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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period.  With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer.

This is one of the more impressive temperature gradients that we have seen this time of year. So an up and down temperature pattern. With all the quick changes, there will be something for everyone.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the more impressive temperature gradients that we have seen this time of year. So an up and down temperature pattern. With all the quick changes, there will be something for everyone.

1D33D74C-FF8C-4BBD-A1F8-4791B2400F7B.thumb.png.9f175ee05732f483e7b6abdd129fdabc.png

7A697992-5FBE-4040-82E2-0007E5692A4E.thumb.png.4fcc853deb09406bf10197e0a2af5535.png

EF7E278A-F842-4DD5-AACE-2DFDB1B2C875.thumb.png.1bade65c0ad04474bcdadead5a7793bf.png

2169E20F-73D8-4CC2-8C54-C37FDFEB8035.thumb.png.b6c3d30cab9b23baacddfda4fe8f1f9d.png

Cool summer for the northeast continues

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22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Is there a picture somewhere of the Central Park weather station location. A current picture.

The pictures I have seen show a fenced in area with trees nearby. I don't see foliage right on top of it. Some pictures show the instruments in sun and others in shade. I don't know how updated the pictures are.

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5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or +1.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.3].        July should end near   76.9[-0.6].

The Summer to date at  54 Days In is +0.6.

July should be the third BN Month this year.      

So when was the last year with at least 7  BN Months(just in case)?     Anyone know?    Thanks.

70*(85%RH), here at 6am,  overcast, streets wet.    69* at 6:30.

Remember these are the new averages 1990-2020…so BN is to be expected at times especially the first year into the new cycle. We are AN based on 1980-2010…so we aren’t really “BN”…

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11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean 

north and east of the city/long island is the dividing line. ewr is +1.2 for july

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35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We above normal even based on the 1990-2020 higher norms…it’s been humid and plenty of hot days. A few very cool days skewing the mean 

Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days

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11 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I'm curious as to why anyone would expect a below normal season with the way our climate is warming.  If I was a met or long range forecaster I would always go with above normal temps And I would probably be right 90% of the time.

Who's expecting a below normal season?

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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Cool summer for the northeast continues

June was a top 1-5 warmest for the Northeast. But July only ranks In the top 20s for many spots. This is one of the biggest temperature ranking declines from June to July that we have ever seen. 
 

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673D0708-4EE6-4F00-816D-E99F735AAC84.thumb.jpeg.c79feb24244c3bd6a54d1e7a9fe5cc86.jpeg

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

June was a top 1-5 warmest for the Northeast. But July only ranks In the top 20s for many spots. This is one of the biggest temperature ranking declines from June to July that we have ever seen. 
 

85842805-A90F-42ED-8E03-E8FD49ABA083.thumb.jpeg.e1dcca4166f3d722645d2e488e314714.jpeg
 

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What’s up with the 49th by Albany in June?

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Few small cells developing at 250PM but will not thread this afternoon-eve. 

This coming week:  Definitely a Thursday of interest but would like another look (00z/26 cycle) before setting up... and may delay that til I see the D3 from SPC Tuesday morning.  Enough wind and modeled instab for a possible slice of svr through the NYC suforum.

am offline 330P-10P

Screen Shot 2021-07-25 at 2.46.12 PM.png

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC is on the verge of getting 10" of rain this month...the last time NYC had a month with 10" or more was in 2013...

Yeah, looks like this will be the 6th month since 2010 that at least one of our major stations goes 10.00”+. August 2011 was the last time all our stations went 10.00” in the same month. It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a 10.00” winter month in the coming years. The only one in NYC history was Jan 1979. But out of 10.59, only 6.6 fell as snow. I wonder what the highest precipitation total winter month we can get and still have most of it fall as snow? Philly picked up 5.75 in Feb 2010 and 51.5 of that was snow.  NYC got 6.69 in Feb 2010 and 36.9 was snow. Be interesting to see the maximum snowfall we can get from a 10.00 winter month.

Jul….2020….EWR…11.20

Aug..2014…..ISP……14.07

Jun..2013……NYC….10.10

Aug..2011……EWR….18.79…..other stations in same range

Mar…2010…..NYC…..10.69

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like this will be the 6th month since 2010 that at least one of our major stations goes 10.00”+. August 2011 was the last time all our stations went 10.00” in the same month. It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a 10.00” winter month in the coming years. The only one in NYC history was Jan 1979. But out of 10.59, only 6.6 fell as snow. I wonder what the highest precipitation total winter month we can get and still have most of it fall as snow? Philly picked up 5.75 in Feb 2010 and 51.5 of that was snow.  NYC got 6.69 in Feb 2010 and 36.9 was snow. Be interesting to see the maximum snowfall we can get from a 10.00 winter month.

Jul….2020….EWR…11.20

Aug..2014…..ISP……14.07

Jun..2013……NYC….10.10

Aug..2011……EWR….18.79…..other stations in same range

Mar…2010…..NYC…..10.69

January 1978 set the record that was broken the next year...January 1978 had 8.27" of precip and 20.3" of snow and sleet...February 1978 had only 1.59" of precip but 23.0" of snow...Feb 78 did not have a drop of rain...it all fell as snow...January 1981 is the only other month I know of with no rain at all...Just snow...

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5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days

This summer has been pretty meh overall, but I can’t say it’s been “cool”, 2009 and 2014 were abysmal. Coming off of the previous 3 summers anything not top 10 worthy feels cooler than normal.

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A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +15.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.403 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.573 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (1.0° below normal).

 

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