July 2021

[dave0176]

Was in Wildwood from the 10th till today. Outside of not a drop of rain all week we only had clouds for a three hour period on Sunday the 11 from 12-3pm. Until Wednesday temps averaged around 79-81 with south eastern flow, made it feel a little cool on the beach then Thursday to today warmer around 85-88 with westerly to south westerly flow. Ocean averaged about 73-76 was almost walk in. One of the best weeks I’ve ever had there weather wise. Would’ve never known how bad the weather up here was had I not followed this site.

[Cfa]

PWS: 88.9 / 81.4 (HI 108)

Kestrel: 88.9 / 79.5 (HI 105)

Today has the highest dews of this heat wave.

[dave0176]

One storm after the other has commenced here in Brick NJ. Was sunny Hot and completely clear an hour ago

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Cfa said:

PWS: 88.9 / 81.4 (HI 108)

Kestrel: 88.9 / 79.5 (HI 105)

Today has the highest dews of this heat wave.

ISP is 86/77!!!

77 dewpoint is as bad as it gets here!

[Rjay]

87/77 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The numbers would obviously look different if we were still using the old normals (1980-2010).  I think they switched to 1990-2020 in May of this year.

 

Some of you don't realize any positive departure would be a top 20 summer.  

Yeah, it doesn’t take that big a departure anymore for a top 10 warmest summer.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	91-20  Departure
1	1993	79.2	+3.5
2	2010	78.7	+3.0
3	1994	78.5	+2.8
4	2011	78.0	+2.3
5	2021	77.8	+2.1
-	2005	77.8	+2.1
6	1988	77.7	+2.0
7	2020	77.6	+1.9
-	2016	77.6	+1.9
-	1973	77.6	+1.9
8	1999	77.1	+1.4
9	1995	77.0	+1.3
10	2012	76.9	+1.2

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

87/77 

Disgusting. Had to empty the garage today for new appliances. Brutal day 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.27" of rain so far today.

Temps also going back up since the storms moved thru.

Current temp back up to 82/DP 77/RH 86% 

[doncat]

Did hit 90° here again before the rain.

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

ISP is 86/77!!!

77 dewpoint is as bad as it gets here!

Had the same reading here, was absolutely miserable earlier when I was mowing the lawn

[donsutherland1]

Thunderstorms grazed the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon knocking the temperature back into the 80s. Some light rain fell, but there were no downpours. The daylilies are now at or just past their peak bloom.

 

[donsutherland1]

Quality control needed. Note the snowfall section:

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Quality control needed. Note the snowfall section:

They have any hail today? Doesn’t that get recorded as a T of snow? Thought I remember that happening at some other station one summer in the area, maybe my memory is wrong though. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

They have any hail today? Doesn’t that get recorded as a T of snow? Thought I remember that happening at some other station one summer in the area, maybe my memory is wrong though. 

It’s not supposed to be listed as snow/sleet in the climate record. But the ASOS can’t distinguish between small hail and sleet. 

[dWave]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is an odd looking departure map for July. Looks more like a spring backdoor pattern. Warmer west of NYC away from the onshore influence.

 

Explains the disparity in how this summer is perceived heat wise across the area. June was hot but July has had multiple cloudy, dreary, cool (for July) days. Those breaks in the warmth takes away from that summer feel despite a few hot spells. Jersey ppl havent experience that as much.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, dWave said:

Explains the disparity in how this summer is perceived heat wise across the area. June was hot but July has had multiple cloudy, dreary, cool (for July) days. Those breaks in the warmth takes away from that summer feel despite a few hot spells. Jersey ppl havent experience that as much.

The flip from June to July has been especially dramatic in Boston. They had their warmest June on record. Now the average temperature in July is lower than June through the 16th. If Boston can stay cool enough next few weeks, then it will only be the 4th cooler July than June.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
2021	74.4	71.1	72.8
1976	73.4	72.9	73.2
1930	72.4	72.8	72.6
1994	71.9	77.5	74.7
1949	71.6	76.3	73.9
1957	71.3	74.1	72.7
2001	71.1	69.9	70.5

[nycwinter]

i cannot remember the last time we had  a summer stretch for this long that has been so humid..

[SACRUS]

7/17

New Brunswick: 94
TEB: 94
PHL: 94
TTN: 93
EWR: 93
NYC: 91
ACY: 91
LGA: 91
BLM: 89
ISP: 87
JFK: 87

[SACRUS]

Earlier storm totals

 

EWR: 1.97
LDJ (linden( : 0.64
TEB: 0.38
NYC: 0.29

[SACRUS]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

The NWS info I see:

 

EWR +1.5

ISP -0.3

NYC -1.3

LGA -1.2

JFK -0.1

BDR -1.0

 

 

Thanks i had the older normals from my site still.  Much appreciated.  

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Earlier storm totals

 

EWR: 1.97
LDJ (linden( : 0.64
TEB: 0.38
NYC: 0.29

 

And more to come now with the line of storms in NNJ

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region again saw temperatures surge into the 90s. However, a cold front that has already triggered thunderstorms will break the heat in much of the region.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 17):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 15 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 26 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 14 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 7 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 19 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 15 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 24 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 20 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 22 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 14 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 15 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will start out with clouds and possible showers and thundershowers. The clouds could break during the afternoon and humidity levels could fall. It will be cooler than today.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

Out West, some of the long-range guidance, including the latest EPS weeklies, suggest that a new expansive heat dome could develop over the western third of the United States and Canada toward the end of July or during the first week of August and then persist toward mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +30.41 today. This was the third consecutive day on which the SOI was at +30.00 or above. The last time that happened was during December 17-19, 2020 when the SOI was at or above +30.00 for three consecutive days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.363 today.

On July 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.967 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.54" of rain for the day yesterday.

High for the day yesterday was 97 here.

Picked up 0.12" of rain so far today.

Current temp 73/DP 71/RH 96%

[bluewave]

This is probably the 3 wettest Julys in a row that our area experienced. Notice how this is the 3rd top 10 wettest July since 2019 at BDR.  Two consecutive years at Newark. 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1971	12.84	0
2	1988	8.53	0
3	1960	8.13	0
4	2021	7.74	14
5	2019	7.57	0
6	1973	6.55	0
7	1984	6.54	0
8	1975	6.48	0
9	1950	6.29	0
10	2020	6.10	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2020	11.22	0
2	1988	9.98	0
3	1984	8.65	0
4	2004	8.39	0
5	1996	8.27	0
6	1975	8.02	0
7	1938	7.96	0
8	1961	7.95	0
9	2021	7.80	14
10	1967	7.53	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1889	11.89	0
2	1975	11.77	0
3	1897	9.56	0
4	2021	9.11	14
5	1928	8.89	0
6	1880	8.53	0
7	1919	8.50	0
8	1997	8.36	0
9	1960	8.29	0
10	1988	8.14	0

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(72/87), or +1.0.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.0].         Should be about  77.2[-0.4] by the 26th.

Tropics look dead with the Easterly Waves continuous, but emerging too close to the equator to get any spin.

We may still reach 10.5" for the month.        July 27---Aug.02 could be on the dry side however.     This Wed./Thur. might be rain free too.

73*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast.         Reached 84* at 5pm.

[bluewave]

We are on track for a cooler late July than the last few years. So the record heat at the end of June will hold as the warmest part of the summer so far. Tough to restart 100° heat once a pattern becomes so wet. 
 

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us.

My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. 

Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

With rainfall through 8 am, July rainfall in New York City has reached 9.14”. That makes 2021 the 4th wettest July on record.

At 8:30, a few small showers were working northeastward in northern New Jersey. Any rain will end this morning. The clouds could break during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 83°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

With rainfall through 8 am, July rainfall in New York City has reached 9.14”. That makes 2021 the 4th wettest July on record.

At 8:30, a few small showers were working northeastward in northern New Jersey. Any rain will end this morning. The clouds could break during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 83°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant.

Don what do you think of this?  Maybe measuring our averages by heat index rather than temperature would give a truer picture of our weather, since it seems like our summer highs won't be going up as much because of higher humidity?

TWC did a piece on climate change and in it they said we should be keeping track of heat indices as a measure of heat rather than temperature because humidity is a component of higher heat.  They said our thirty year averages should consist of heat index rather than just temperature and that the temperatures out west were likely to rise much more due to climate change than temperatures in the east would because higher humidity and rainfall will cap out our temperatures and make them less extreme than what the west will get.  But they said if we measured our averages by heat index that will give a truer indication of the new climate rather than measuring them by temperature alone.

Going by that, JFK's record heat was 117 which we got on back to back days just a couple of years ago (actual temp was 99 but it felt like the hottest I've ever experienced here thanks to the humidity.)  What do you think of measuring heat by heat index rather than temperature?  So a hot day would be a day with a heat index of 90 and we would also keep track of 100+ days as very hot days.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what do you think of this?  Maybe measuring our averages by heat index rather than temperature would give a truer picture of our weather, since it seems like our summer highs won't be going up as much because of higher humidity?

TWC did a piece on climate change and in it they said we should be keeping track of heat indices as a measure of heat rather than temperature because humidity is a component of higher heat.  They said our thirty year averages should consist of heat index rather than just temperature and that the temperatures out west were likely to rise much more due to climate change than temperatures in the east would because higher humidity will cap out our temperatures and make them less extreme than what the west will get.  But they said if we measured our averages by heat index that will give a truer indication of the new climate rather than measuring them by temperature alone.

Going by that, JFK's record heat was 117 which we got on back to back days just a couple of years ago (actual temp was 99 but it felt like the hottest I've ever experienced here thanks to the humidity.)  What do you think of measuring heat by heat index rather than temperature?  So a hot day would be a day with a heat index of 90 and we would also keep track of 100+ days as very hot days.

All measures are important in providing a full picture of the climate. Outside of the increasingly dense “forest” in Central Park mean summer high temperatures are rising.