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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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45 minutes ago, Ji said:

It's going to step back because 12z was a perfect run. But the old euro would never go from 35 to 8 in one run

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Hmmm.  

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Just now, jayyy said:

The problem is everybody is so snow hungry from the past 2 winters that they are fiending for snowmaggedon. 
 

when you’re not hitting the ball, sometimes you need to bunt to get on base. I would be ecstatic to see an easy 4-8” over some complex mess that ends up giving Binghamton another 30”

To each his own. 

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If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. 
 

Certainly not a time to be panicking.  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. 
 

Certainly not a time to be panicking.  

FWIW ridging seemed better this run. Onto the EPS, hoping those provide some clarity. 

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I'm fine with this run.

It's an OTS track that could be easily avoided by slower troff with higher heights ahead of it.   A shift that almost always happens inside 72hrs.  

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The old euro never had these drastic changes in the 96 to 120 range

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The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation. 

The voice of reason has arrived. Good to see you on here! MAF had more SN than 3 years at IAD

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

The voice of reason has arrived. Good to see you on here! MAF had more SN than 3 years at IAD

That in itself is insane. I need to move back to bring the snow back with me :)

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The euro shows a stalled storm at nc coast that never gains latitude. It's not a bad place to be 120 hours out

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu ..is this concerning?
Ooz tonight vs last night 60ba81cb54a10e02377b4195ecbe9e49.gif

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I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye.  Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us. 

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The EPS looks pretty similar to 12z, if not a tiny bit North. Certainly not a step back. I'd imagine that ensembles are pretty decent at this range. 

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ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2353600.thumb.png.e9ab17dab1b6c038788a7a7d5bfd98b3.png

This is actually NW of 12z lol

321374476_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-precip_72hr_inch-2332000(3).thumb.png.ad75e029ce0d539c72617a50eb8ffcf4.png

Control is still a bomb too. Weird that the EPS went up pretty well compared to it's Op brother. 

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16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That in itself is insane. I need to move back to bring the snow back with me :)

We sure need some kind of help. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye.  Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

The EPS looks pretty similar to 12z, if not a tiny bit North. Certainly not a step back. I'd imagine that ensembles are pretty decent at this range. 

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker. 

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

We sure need some kind of help. 

If only we could get atmospheric rivers into the east coast. Stupid land

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Btw we don’t want the ridge out west pumping more. It’s too Far East and positively tilted. The more that pumps the more pressure to dig the trough into the southeast it exerts. We don’t want that.  There is too much blocking for that. We want the h5 to track ESE across VA not dive SE into NC!   We have a beautiful wave that is blocked from lifting we don’t want it to dig and get squashed in the flow. We want it to slide more east and develop the low off the mid Atlantic not the southeast. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2353600.thumb.png.e9ab17dab1b6c038788a7a7d5bfd98b3.png

This is actually NW of 12z lol

321374476_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-precip_72hr_inch-2332000(3).thumb.png.ad75e029ce0d539c72617a50eb8ffcf4.png

Control is still a bomb too. Weird that the EPS went up pretty well compared to it's Op brother. 

It's a great run. Lost a few BECS solutions (hence snow mean technically going slightly down) but there is literally a single member that blanks us -- DCA being us. Every single other member is 2"+

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a great run. Lost a few BECS solutions (hence snow mean technically going slightly down) but there is literally a single member that blanks us -- DCA being us. Every single other member is 2"+

Mhm, the preicp mean for the costal aspect is improved too. In fact part of it might be because a cluster of means are decently NW during this time (disagrees with Euro), in fact 850s are borderline for part of that, but that's probably the least of our worries atm

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

@Cobaltmind sharing the control? Curious to compare with OP. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-total_snow_10to1-2353600.thumb.png.f3fd15106d6672840f18da2f6153de2f.png

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235654310_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2202400(3).thumb.png.57d3649be5bd31139e1d49fb92848072.png

The Euro is close to being a southern outlier compared to the EPS.. in intensity too it seems. 

the EPS did not like what the Euro decided to throw out tonight.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp-2202400.thumb.png.15179b2eaa9e36602de3b22c8487d002.png

Euro for reference

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19 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We sure need some kind of help. 

Help? Why do we need help? We're sitting up here at nearly 2:30 in the morning looking at a computer model....perfectly normal! :P

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7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

 

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker. 

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip.  But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast.  So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. 
 

Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup. 

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Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles? 

 

I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased.    The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern.

GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.

 

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles? 

 

I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased.    The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern.

GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.

 

You’re being optimistic?   What is happening. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip.  But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast.  So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. 
 

Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup. 

I think the deterministic models are certainly better than the past, but the physics get amplified compared to a smoothed ensemble mean. So, one small shift in deterministic will have more drastic impacts comparative. I think the ensemble run this evening showed that perhaps the more strung out nature of the 5H vort might have been too exaggerated as the EPS even looked better with a more pronounced 5H vort pass and deepening low tucked in a climatologically favored position for the sub-forum. I was checking the Prob Height fields and was encouraged to see such a high prob of <540dm location in conjunction to the deterministic. It was sort of classic and even a bit further north than I was expecting. That's probably why there are so many ensemble lows tucked near OCMD and Wallops compared to Kitty Hawk. 

The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.  

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

235654310_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2202400(3).thumb.png.57d3649be5bd31139e1d49fb92848072.png

The Euro is close to being a southern outlier compared to the EPS.. in intensity too it seems. 

the EPS did not like what the Euro decided to throw out tonight.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp-2202400.thumb.png.15179b2eaa9e36602de3b22c8487d002.png

Euro for reference

EPS is still more important at this range. Still outside 100 hours.  

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11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.  

Yes, I think some were rooting for that ridge to pump more but that doesn’t work when it’s centered east like that.  There isn’t enough space for the wave to dig, amplify, and turn the corner and lift. It’s unlikely to gain much latitude once the secondary forms and gets captured. If it digs too much it won’t recover. We’re so used to wanting things to dig more but this is a case where imo were better off with less ridge and less digging. Let the h5 feature slide ESE and capture the secondary off the VA capes not down off NC. EPS likes that option. 

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