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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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This is for discrete storm threats between days 3 and 7. Pattern beyond D7 in the other thread.

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Well, there aren’t really any storm threats in the 3-7 day time frame so I guess this will be quiet for a few more days lol

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1st ‘threat’ looks to be upslope for the mountains from Deep Creek down to Snowshoe beginning on Saturday.  Great timing for MLK weekend for the ski resorts.

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Early lunch today . CMC gets CF snow nw . Lots of hints of this scenario.  Might have legs 

 

gem_asnow_neus_21.png

GFS looks good!

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GFS 12z has a little something hr 114-120...looks like the front digs a little deeper and moves a little slower...pity flakes but more pity than 6z

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21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GFS 12z has a little something hr 114-120...looks like the front digs a little deeper and moves a little slower...pity flakes but more pity than 6z

Yes sir ...more then pity flakes verbatim.Much further south transfer to the southern part of the CF.  Up to couple inches in western zones . Overnight timing as well 

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GFS temps are whacky. Mid 30’s along the Ohio River with thickness at 520 and 850’s about -15. That doesn’t seem legit

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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes sir ...more then pity flakes verbatim.Much further south transfer to the southern part of the CF.  Up to couple inches in western zones . Overnight timing as well 

 

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS temps are whacky. Mid 30’s along the Ohio River with thickness at 520 and 850’s about -15. That doesn’t seem legit

I just looked. Even here it's ridiculous. 530 thickness. 850's almost -6 but surface never gets colder than 34. Its unbelievable. I dont recall seeing that before. 

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12z Eps with a deeper trough for the day 6-8 possible threat . 0z and yesterday's 12z was definitely shallower with not much room for amplification just ns flying across.  A couple more bumps like this then we are in Bidness .So not dead yet that's for sure 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0906400.png

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs mean snowfall for Saturday morning's cf. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_24hr-0830800.png

There are some interesting members on the 18z gfs. 

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Icon has the 18th storm....It’s light but it’s snow.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Icon has the 18th storm....It’s light but it’s snow.

At this point id take that in a heartbeat

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Just now, Chris78 said:

At this point id take that in a heartbeat

It’s getting funny at this point.

C5F77882-E399-48AD-8BE3-44DE61850F8A.png

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