This was my write up on my weather page. I’m not going to share the images but it was the 850 temps on the GFS. Update on Saturday...I want to be more specific on what is going on and what may happen to make you understand a little so bare with me, this is long. So, the track of this storm that is going to go WELL west of our area is typically not favorable for wintry precipitation around these parts because southerly flow brings in warm air. But high pressure that I have circled in the last image is going to cause a cold Friday night and initially cold Saturday morning. That’s why I’ve been saying the earlier the precipitation comes in, the better. But eventually this warmer air coming from the south, wins out. 3 images here, the first is from 10am-1pm Saturday and shows generally light precipitation entering the area. The solid black line in these photos is the “32 degree line” in the upper atmosphere. Once this line pass any specific location, generally speaking, it cannon snow or sleet anymore and precipitation is rain or freezing rain. As you can see, as of 1pm that line has already crossed DC but it may still be cold enough for snow or sleet in Baltimore and pointe N&E. The next image is 4pm and this line has crossed Baltimore City so it’s now freezing rain or rain at that time and finally 7pm it’s crossed the entire state. So the problem we’re dealing with in terms of snow is a rapidly warming upper atmosphere the later in the day it gets. That combined with most models holding precipitation off until about 10am or later, equals not a great set up for an extended period of snow. If we can get this in earlier, then snow potential increases. I hope this makes you understand more. At this point, the best call is for 1” or less from I-95 and south. And perhaps up to 2” for near the PA line. Then a coating of sleet and perhaps extended ice to the north of 95. Cities, mostly plain rain after initial snow/sleet.
