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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Sunday, this forum will be unreadable....and not just due to me...

dont worry, if/when a storm thread is created, we will move banter out of it. enjoy while yall can.

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The icon looked pretty good till it abruptly ended

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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Lol the amount of emotion at 2-3am and the rollercoaster from the OP to the ensemble run....so much for the saying "never let them see you sweat" I certainly didn't enjoy seeing a less than robust op run from the euro but dang people...breathe...relax...it's Wednesday and it was close. If this thing is going to bust I'd rather it do it now anyway instead of Saturday....

Happy Hump Day y'all on to the next set of model runs.

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Didn’t see this posted.  Good spot to be at 144.

BC5BAE77-9784-4574-B6F1-FB8027FEA5EC.png

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

The icon looked pretty good till it abruptly ended

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

You mean when it got to the end of its run?

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Nobody with the 6zGEFS yet? I noticed the 6z GFS OP is still hanging on to that late transfer and more north solution. 

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6z GEFS seems to have a quicker transfer and there are some SLP ensemble plots showing up off the coast in a better location.  It also gets the northern part of the subforum in on the coastal as it redevelops.   

But its still night/day from the EPS with the evolution.  

image.thumb.png.e4e71fb3ddcb8ed41e99eefa39e40a28.png

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Nobody with the 6zGEFS yet? I noticed the 6z GFS OP is still hanging on to that late transfer and more north solution. 

6z GFS ticked north relative to 0z lol. 6z Para is a strung out mess. Sort of a snowier version of Monday’s event. 
But damn that EPS clustering right off OCMD is beautiful. 

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I like where we are 4-5 days out and everyone else should too. some of yall haven't seen measurable snow in a while and you're chasing unicorn snow amounts. lower your expectations and be thrilled with a warning level event vs a BECS. 

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LWX bumped the entire area into “Enhanced” on Day 5.  And here’s their latest disco:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure overhead will keep us dry and chilly Saturday. As
the northern fringe of this high departs toward the northeast,
the southern half will wedge along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. This will likely keep cold air in place ahead of a
developing low pressure system that could bring us a mix of
rain and snow or all snow later in the weekend. Clouds will
increase Saturday night before thickening with precipitation
arriving Sunday.

As of now, the precipitation looks to arrive as some light snow
late Saturday night into early Sunday from southwest to
northeast. As an easterly flow increases ahead of the main storm
system, we throw a factor of rain into the precipitation type
mixture. By late Sunday evening and continuing Sunday night and
through midday Monday, the easterly flow gradually becomes more
northerly. This is due to a coastal low pressure system forming
near the Outer Banks and intensifying as it moves toward the
northeast.

By Monday night and into Tuesday, precipitation should taper
off and end slowly from west to east as the coastal low moves
away and high pressure becomes reestablished in the region.
Temperatures will be near average during the lifetime of the
storm system.
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Just now, mappy said:

I like where we are 4-5 days out and everyone else should too. some of yall haven't seen measurable snow in a while and you're chasing unicorn snow amounts. lower your expectations and be thrilled with a warning level event vs a BECS. 

Some people seem to not know how to differentiate from fun to look at vs what to expect. There shouldn't be anyone on here that didn't love looking at those few Euro runs that showed massive amounts of snow...that was some fun shit but if anyone expected that to be reality then I hope they only do that with weather

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Per @tombo82685, only 3 EPS members were op-like. Definitely a southern outlier. 

I know this after all of these years...if you are fearing suppression and you're looking for positive news look north for your analysis :P

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I know this after all of these years...if you are fearing suppression and you're looking for positive news look north for your analysis :P

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

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I’m one of the village idiots here, but 6z GFS to me sucked. Classic miller B screw job where the initial slug cuts off and the coastal slams north of Baltimore to NYC. 3-6 is fine. 20 plus is rarely realistic. But us getting 3-5 while PHL to NYC gets 10 plus? Ugh. Reminds me of Jan 05 a bit.

Lets hope EPS has a better idea. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, yes. New England weenies loving the EPS.

It was definitely a bit toasty along I-95 and east. That makes the N and W crew feel good.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was definitely a bit toasty along I-95 and east. That makes the N and W crew feel good.

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first. Count on the CAD being undermodeled (weenie rule number something hundred and something)

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first

There are still multiple variations on the table for the ultimate outcome. There will be some legit cold/dry air in place at onset, so a good bet everyone sees some snow. Beyond that, it gets complicated.

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4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Say what you will about these maps but if we somehow walked away without a storm, it would be an unprecedented failure.

1612332000-BG5yZQ9UoLo.png

1612332000-dRDiRk9pIUc.png

1612332000-wZxmCtCrJGw.png

Wow these maps are looking very nice.  I’m starting to believe it might actually snow! 

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Even if we do turn over to rain we'll still get a nice thump at least first. Count on the CAD being undermodeled (weenie rule number something hundred and something)

In my thirty five years in the DC/mid Atlantic area, I’d honestly say there’s an argument that’s weenie rule #1. Happens 90 percent of the time.

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Just now, chris21 said:

In my thirty five years in the DC/mid Atlantic area, I’d honestly say there’s an argument that’s weenie rule #1. Happens 90 percent of the time.

I don't really know how it will end up but come Saturday evening i'll probably be looking at the r/s line and telling it to stay south

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34 minutes ago, nj2va said:

6z GEFS seems to have a quicker transfer and there are some SLP ensemble plots showing up off the coast in a better location.  It also gets the northern part of the subforum in on the coastal as it redevelops.   

But its still night/day from the EPS with the evolution.  

image.thumb.png.e4e71fb3ddcb8ed41e99eefa39e40a28.png

 

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome.

I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

 

  

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are still multiple variations on the table for the ultimate outcome. There will be some legit cold/dry air in place at onset, so a good bet everyone sees some snow. Beyond that, it gets complicated.

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. 
 

Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA  precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree with @psuhoffman that at this point, the only way most of us don’t see any snow from this is if it’s suppressed way south. As we saw with Monday’s storm, when we have a -PNA, that’s more difficult then with a +PNA. 
 

Its nice that we will actually have a respectably cold airmass this weekend leading into the storm. Big storms always have a mix line though, whether it’s sleet or rain or both. Often its as we transition from the WAA  precip to the deformation band. Then once the deform band cranks, that mix line collapses back east. Hopefully we are thinking about those details on Saturday. 

Is any model other than the euro showing the stall scenario for the low on the coast?

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Man, why does the GFS struggle so much. The GFS cycle swings are maddening. Loving the EPS though, but realize we are far from a final outcome.

I am ignoring the thermals on the GFS. For @CAPE 's area and mine we really need an all snow event. I still feel there is a path to a mostly snow event in Northern Delaware, because I am not really interested in a front thump of snow.

 

  

Hard to know what to root for given the disparity on the guidance. 2 things are concerning esp for eastern areas- the cold air mass will be gradually departing, and the complications with the location of the primary/ coastal transition. I would almost take my chances with a legit front end thump then dry slot while the good cold is still in place, vs a sloppy transfer/ one that ends up too close to the coast. Bigger upside though if it evolves something like the  previous Euro runs. The next few model cycles will be telling, maybe. B)

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