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Everything posted by TL97

  1. The crab claw got us here in DC
  2. 11-12 pm hour is money, DC to Baltimore gets 2" in that hour on the HRRR
  3. HRRR also has southern NJ getting .5 QPF of sleet in an hour, that would be quite the sight to behold
  4. Both NAMs put down .5" of QPF between 10 am and 1 pm in DC, the big question seems to be what the precip type is but that's a crazy 3 hours either way.
  5. HRRR also gives DC like .15" of QPF in an hour after the flip when it's really close to snow.
  6. Seems to me most of the short term models say the moment starts coming north and so we avoid the WV dryslot. Anyway, 1.5" here and think 4" is a good target for DC area.
  7. GFS is going to be better I think, hour 42 radar came out on Tropical and there is a CBB band right about where 18Z RGEM had it
  8. Seems like 4-6 from the front end and 2-4 from the backend, I feel like everyone will take in DC.
  9. GFS would be good if it was cooler, it pours here in DC (nearly an inch of rain).
  10. ICON is like 5" of snow, then 2" of sleet (it says rain on the model but the temp is 32 and below always, maybe a little freezing rain too) then another 4" of snow on the backend. Pretty good outcome overall.
  11. CMC is out to 84 on pivotal, 10"+ area wide and the MOCO-HOCO deathband has put over a foot down there, and it is still snowing!
  12. I think yes last night's and this morning's Euro lit the fire and the NAM added to it, but one model gives NY 18" and the other 0" so clearly there is two different issues at play here (imo the Euro solution is a lot better).
  13. I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything.
  14. The NAM managed to suppress our snow all the way to New York!
  15. Looks like the Canadian shows some snow/sleet from Sunday morning until Tuesday afternoon... Would be fun from that perspective.
  16. The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5.
  17. GFS is 4-6" for everyone... closer than 06Z but not quite incredible
  18. Has there been any talk of the freezing rain with this storm? The HRRR gives DC more than a quarter inch, with close by getting over an inch.
  19. 850 0 degree line passes DC at 36 but then goes back southeastward by 39