BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I was stuck at 32.5 for several hours. Finally around 31 now. It still is raining, but sounds a bit more icy, maybe changing over a bit. Yeah didn’t think this would be much ZR but there are trees hanging down everywhere here. Can’t buy a flake however since about 1. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notvirga! Posted December 17, 2020 Based on others obs sounds like we’ll go back to sleet here too before too long. Fingers crossed. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LeesburgWx Posted December 17, 2020 Sounds like pouring rain in the summer outside but it is sleet. Not sure the changeover to snow will happen in tile. Back edge is approaching very fast Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: That ULL catches the coastal quick enough and I think our area sees an additional 3” or so You’d think with almost all models hitting on that now at <6 hrs lead time, we should get a couple inches... and it would dump pretty good with the ULL. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ruin Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, ldub23 said: Seems like the dry slot and warm nose always goes further north and west than expected. Alot of TWC reporters not in snow. yeah sadly funny thing is some one called me out saying i was lying about the dry slot. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 It’s a sleet blizzard (slizzard?) outside. Germantown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, A777 said: Heavy sleet in NW Rockville Can confirm near town center. Pingers rattling on the window. Can we squeeze some snow to cover the sidewalks after the tropical downpours earlier? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
caviman2201 Posted December 17, 2020 Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2020 Flipping now. 2020_12_16_21_43_36.mp4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Mod snow...large flakes. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted December 17, 2020 Raining in Burke. Dang...just a little coating to end the day would be nice. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mimiof2 Posted December 17, 2020 Sharpsburg, MD 420' ASL 9:30pm 24 degrees and snowing. It's not pouring but its snowing a good clip. I believe we changed over from sleet about 9pm. I guesstimate we got maybe 1/8 of an inch in sleet accumulation. Hoping that its starts puking snow again! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 How did DC and Baltimore do? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted December 17, 2020 Back down to 32 after a high of 32 in N. Arlington. “Hearing” the rain now so some sleet is in there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Raining in Burke. Dang...just a little coating to end the day would be nice. Scratch that - it’s all sleet now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? DC got about an inch and Baltimore got between 2-3.5” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PWC Split Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? Hopefully you get as much snow as DC and Baltimore did. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How did DC and Baltimore do? 12" lollies 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: And as @psuhoffman said the NAM was out, it throws us some snow tonight on the 0z. I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDphotog Posted December 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, LP08 said: I have family in Scranton, they have travel emergency notices going to their phones. I hope to be getting pics tomorrow morning. I can believe it, check out google maps traffic, that is a lot of interstate closures in that area. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column. With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin. 4 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 12" lollies I am honored to have been trolled by Yeoman lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening Holy crap that gives me like 6-8" in Germantown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Hopefully you get as much snow as DC and Baltimore did. If I don't, you'll find me tits up in the Merrimack river. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Think the dance has ended for us. Looks like from the motion on the radar that the low is really starting to scoot east. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDphotog Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide Is that why we didn’t see the usual pivot and spin on radar typical for winter storms? Or is that more of a different kind of storm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites