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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm responding to the person where he said about the models not showing anything. 

I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that

@TradeWinds is that what you meant?  Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?

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18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

That's about as sexxy a tropical wave as you're ever gonna see...
e9e3f235632775ee9aa9b248199666fd.gif

No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow 

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26 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that

@TradeWinds is that what you meant?  Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?

WTH is wrong with everyone?  I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake.

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2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

WTH is wrong with everyone?  I just asked where the Para ensembles is for heaven's sake.

Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why.  Just wanted to be sure. 

It's on tropical tidbits.  Click ensemble... then gfs-para.  Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button 

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I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions.

Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions.

Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.

NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 

1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across 
the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a 
few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a 
closed surface wind circulation.  The wave is, however, producing 
an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of 
Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. 
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next couple of days before the system reaches 
Central America Wednesday night.  Locally heavy rains and gusty 
winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as 
in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan 
Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a 
day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible 
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

How is this not a tropical storm? Was recon out today? Did I miss it?

No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO)

no upgrade at 5am

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TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it

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Donut think we're gonna have a TD16. The Caribbean disturbance will be classified a tropical storm upon recon finding a closed vortex. Jamaica is experiencing TS force winds.

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Donut think we're gonna have a TD16. The Caribbean disturbance will be classified a tropical storm upon recon finding a closed vortex. Jamaica is experiencing TS force winds.

Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef??

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Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef??

Jamaica is not yet near any potential vorticity maximum. Do better.

 

As for the other comment, you have beaten the point to death. The season is a disappointment for you and a complete bust. We get it. Got it. 10-4. Affirmative. You going to make 15 more posts whining about it instead of actually contributing something useful?

 

 

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1. A well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated 
with a tropical wave continues to move quickly westward across the 
central Caribbean Sea. Although the disturbance does not yet have a 
well-defined circulation center, ship observations indicate that 
tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of 
wave to the southeast of Jamaica, which will spread near or just 
south of Jamaica later this morning and into this afternoon. 
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical 
storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the 
system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains 
and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, 
as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and 
the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. 
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route 
to investigate the disturbance.

Potential tropical cyclone or tropical cyclone advisories will 
likely be issued later today, along with watches and warnings. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a 
day or so.  Gradual development of this system will be possible 
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions.

Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.

meh, might pad our numbers but very little time to get its act together before moving over Central America...Next up is that wave coming off Africa, hopefully thatll be promising, 40% odds this early is good i guess

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8 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Imagine saying, "Where's the beef" after we got a devastating category 4 hurricane

He is a troll

Ignore him

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8 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Imagine saying, "Where's the beef" after we got a devastating category 4 hurricane

For sure...people tend to poo poo storms that dont hit a high population, fortunately it didnt but yes

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The center was partially missed by the latest ASCAT pass, but from what we can see, it does appear to have a closed circulation on the Eastern side.

WMBas88.png

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it

It looks pretty healthy to me.

crD4y1e.gif

WMBas74.png

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AF307 is almost in 99L. We'll know what we're dealing with soon enough. I still think winds on the north side will be strong enough to classify as a named storm if they find a closed vortex.

 

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

AF307 is almost in 99L. We'll know what we're dealing with soon enough. I still think winds on the north side will be strong enough to classify as a named storm if they find a closed vortex.

 

I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

It looks pretty healthy to me.

crD4y1e.gif

WMBas74.png

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

The depression has become better organized this morning with the 
center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep 
convection.  An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds 
of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression 
is a tropical storm.  Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 
kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon.  
Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, 
although it does seem more likely than not that this system will 
barely make it to a tropical storm later today.  The shear is 
forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is 
anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to 
cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours.  
While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the 
last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity 
prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm 
threshold.

The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 
kt.  There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this 
motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward 
during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical 
ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the 
last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather 
than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the 
faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction.  Dissipation 
is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as 
days 2-3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 34.7N  73.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 35.6N  71.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 36.5N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 37.2N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 37.3N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0000Z 37.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 37.0N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 39.5N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Something is bound to develop out of the extending WAM on steroids by the end of the week. Might get a long-tracker to slip by the TUTT before it amplifies. Way too early to know how that plays out.

 

16a871c616919d329be14ea59deadb4b.gif

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