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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Windspeed
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Ensembles and operationals into the mid-range are hinting at an outbreak in the MDR. Two to three long-tracking hurricanes, especially given any left-behind stalls would increase seasonal ACE substantially regardless of any land threats. We'll definitely have to watch for anything that might remain shallow and develop near 60°W with the amplified NW ridge could capture and drive a potential system into the Antilles, Bahamas or ECONUS. And as[mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] allluded to, could be a surprise in the GOM and potential threat with an amplified pattern in place.

 

c740c99529c30d95a3f7b738527fcb8f.jpg

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Individual storm threads: damn the models suck, they have been performing awfully, especially in the mid and long range main tropical thread: look at these models!

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

slp8.png

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31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

:facepalm:

You’re right. All we have to talk about is models. I just think it’s funny, that’s all. 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh it’s hilarious, but they’ve sucked in one direction. They weren’t showing genesis. Now that they are, and in a more emphatic way, maybe we’re about to be off to the races.

Or not :lol: 

It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So it depends. Generally yes, if you have that kind of a robust high in the maritime region/western Atlantic that’s going to be an EC threat pattern. Where specifically is likely to depend on the exact strength and orientation of that ridge. 

However, the placement of a low matters too. If there’s a system trapped under the ridge in a place like the Bahamas or western/central Caribbean, that’s an EC/GOM threat. If there’s a system in the central Atlantic on the eastern edge of a ridge, it can still escape OTS because there’s likely to be a weakness there.

These things aren’t going to be resolved in the near term, but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, ridging has been strong and persistent.

 

Thanks so much for your response

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Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

Absolutely Agree!

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Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.

 

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.

Yeah I'm with you.  I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall.  This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.

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I already look back on this hurricane season as memorable. There were hardly any lulls, even early storms like Cristobal and Gonzalo were exciting enough to track. Hurricane Hanna was a nasty landfall in Texas in July with a pressure in the 970s. Hurricane Isaias surprised us with the last minute intensification before striking North Carolina and causing impressive storm surge in Myrtle Beach. Then we had a devastating high-end Cat 4 landfall on the North Gulf Coast in August.

To me, that's a memorable hurricane season, and I think we likely have a few more memorable storms to go. I just hope we don't exhaust the name list too quickly, who the hell wants to track a late-season Caribbean storm named "Eta".

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