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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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3 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps.

It's there on the ensembles.

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3 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps.

Check the para gfs

Its there

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Para gfs shows the next system 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

Wow...that’s a big PRE look for NE no..?  Of course assuming that is to be taken verbatim?  Which is a big IF??? 

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Euro and GFS rather dead. Still think a  mini burst  might  occur sept20-oct10 unless we  have switched to a winter like  pattern by  then. its not  going to be hyper active with a dried  up MDR. JB is claiming we are  in the  active  phase  of the  MJO. How much nore  unfavorable  is  it  in the  MDR when its  not  favorable?

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The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.acf35bd6b9838d4c12aa04f7928c6e78.gif2e36ef2d031f58ccdd858c167ec67ad5.gif

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10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.acf35bd6b9838d4c12aa04f7928c6e78.gif2e36ef2d031f58ccdd858c167ec67ad5.gif

The para has been consistent  on a storm forming in the long range. The exact location is yet to be determined. 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play?  

Just curious.

 

13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane by August 26th...c6e060f26823693014260abf59d49e76.gif&key=466e01777c1acd60ce415c74629d2af8ce48f19bba58b26d9062466ae0bd3eb0
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18 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What the hell is wrong with the genesis on these models?

I have no clue what's wrong this year, its like models think its a raging El Nino. they're cranking out tons of model canes in the EPAC and can't find a storm in the ATL unless its already formed.

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49 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play?
 

Just curious.

All the SAL right now means delayed development unitll the Caribbean.

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.acf35bd6b9838d4c12aa04f7928c6e78.gif2e36ef2d031f58ccdd858c167ec67ad5.gif

You made me look. I didn't look as deeply as you did but you can see something similar on both the EPS and GEFS. We know the waves and systems will be in the basin. We get a pattern like that and it's trouble for someone along the East Coast. We're nowhere close to done with threats. 

51 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

Is the SAL the thing putting a damper on this season’s forecasted activity, or is there something else in play?
 

Just curious.

Hi there. I think the only impact has been in the MDR (region between Africa and the lesser Antilles), where we have seen some storms struggle to develop and more pointedly, intensify quickly. That said, aside from a major spike early in the season, dust has been normal to lower than normal. 

Fy4XdS4.gif

 

Just now, BYG Jacob said:

I have no clue what's wrong this year, its like models think its a raging El Nino. they're cranking out tons of model canes in the EPAC and can't find a storm in the ATL unless its already formed.

Some have speculated it has been the lack of data from transatlantic flights, but IDK. They have really struggled. European and EPS in particular. 

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The only metric that seems off from seasonal forecasts at this point is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Though we're above normal, considering number of storms, an ACE of 42.1 seems low. However, bulk ACE generation is almost always in the months of September and more recently October when we experience a higher number of concurrent hurricanes. September hurricanes generally take tracks that allow them to last longer too, hence higher rate of ACE production.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some have speculated it has been the lack of data from transatlantic flights, but IDK. They have really struggled. European and EPS in particular. 

I think the GFS has been worse, it tried to pretend Josephine and Gonzalo didn't even exist. It also showed Hanna as an open wave for landfall and had Laura and Marco Fujiwara in the gulf.

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5 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

I think the GFS has been worse, it tried to pretend Josephine and Gonzalo didn't even exist. It also showed Hanna as an open wave for landfall and had Laura and Marco Fujiwara in the gulf.

I think the guidance has struggled across the board, but the Euro/EPS missing on the two biggest threats of the season, Isaias and Laura, are the biggest failures IMO. 

That said, this is where you have to be able to look at the pattern and environment and beyond raw model output. While some were canceling Laura based on the guidance and appearance in the central Atlantic, it was clear to those looking deeper that the environment was ripe for explosive development if it survived the greater Antilles. 

The models are a tool, and like any tool they have inherent limitations. 

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56 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane by August 26th...c6e060f26823693014260abf59d49e76.gif&key=466e01777c1acd60ce415c74629d2af8ce48f19bba58b26d9062466ae0bd3eb0

But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season?

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Just now, cptcatz said:

But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season?

Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head

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19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

But with CSU's forecast of 24/12/5, we have a LONG way to go if that's gonna verify. Do you think we will still see 11/8/4 over the rest of the season?

Zero doubt in my mind. I guess “we’ll see” :lol: 

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