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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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56 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not with the ridging that's being modeled.

I was looking at the way it rams into a mega ridge and thought....how?  lol. Also do not buy the rapid development.  That Atlantic looks dry like it has all summer.

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Laura really makes a great case showing why we can't trust the models 5+ days out.  These were the GFS and Euro runs from this past Friday, exactly 5 days ago, valid today:

gfs.jpg

euro.jpg

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Laura really makes a great case showing why we can't trust the models 5+ days out.  These were the GFS and Euro runs from this past Friday, exactly 5 days ago, valid today:gfs.thumb.jpg.e715d9ac9f5727fbaf3804b47a49491c.jpgeuro.thumb.jpg.4d29074e10e932dd2d7da8472a65541f.jpg
If ever there was a case in point, this is it. 5+ days out you might peek at the operationals for patterns, precip, derived winds, feature locations, and especially entertainment purposes, but for estimates on TCs and their storm relative potential, you go with the different ensemble packages all night and day long. I don't mind beating that dead horse into a smear until frequent posters get it.
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
2 hours ago, cptcatz said:
Laura really makes a great case showing why we can't trust the models 5+ days out.  These were the GFS and Euro runs from this past Friday, exactly 5 days ago, valid today:gfs.thumb.jpg.e715d9ac9f5727fbaf3804b47a49491c.jpgeuro.thumb.jpg.4d29074e10e932dd2d7da8472a65541f.jpg

If ever there was a case in point, this is it. 5+ days out you might peek at the operationals for patterns, precip, derived winds, feature locations, and especially entertainment purposes, but for estimates on TCs and their storm relative potential, you go with the different ensemble packages all night and day long. I don't mind beating that dead horse into a smear until frequent posters get it.

Agreed. I'm curious of low pressure placement and pressure on ops but I quickly jump to all the potential patterns. 

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CMC has the best record for picking up on tropical activity this year.

500 mb vorticity shows 3 areas I am interested in.Potential.thumb.png.8a9761e8ec68f5ad630fe1a1baa22af6.pnggem_z500_vort_atl_41.thumb.png.c2f5d0ad31523e7665dfa457017985e6.png

It could just be my overactive imagination but there are 3 patches of vorticity that could Nana, Omar, Paulette(?)

The most impressive one is forecast to be a tropical storm, there another less impressive one behind it, and a weak disturbance that moves in the very high potential Caribbean. This over a week after Marco and Laura so I am sure the waters would have recovered. Don't pay too much attention to intensity after CMC has Laura as 980-something low right now!

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59 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

CMC has the best record for picking up on tropical activity this year.

500 mb vorticity shows 3 areas I am interested in.Potential.thumb.png.8a9761e8ec68f5ad630fe1a1baa22af6.pnggem_z500_vort_atl_41.thumb.png.c2f5d0ad31523e7665dfa457017985e6.png

It could just be my overactive imagination but there are 3 patches of vorticity that could Nana, Omar, Paulette(?)

The most impressive one is forecast to be a tropical storm, there another less impressive one behind it, and a weak disturbance that moves in the very high potential Caribbean. This over a week after Marco and Laura so I am sure the waters would have recovered. Don't pay too much attention to intensity after CMC has Laura as 980-something low right now!

Really? The CMC?

Granted, I haven't followed and analyzed the models for verification this year when it comes to tropical systems but just going by how it performed for Laura, I wouldn't exactly say the Canadian is the go-to model.

I'm not saying/trying to downplay anything out there like some people on here. Just questioning the model of choice.

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11 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Really? The CMC?

Granted, I haven't followed and analyzed the models for verification this year when it comes to tropical systems but just going by how it performed for Laura, I wouldn't exactly say the Canadian is the go-to model.

I'm not saying/trying to downplay anything out there like some people on here. Just questioning the model of choice.

Indeed, It never is. It's not included in any of the consensus models used by NHC.

Being fairly primitive it has a lot of boguscanes the way the GFS/AVN did. If the goal is to "pick up on activity" but one don't care about boguscanes that don't develop, it's great.

It also comes out fairly early and is widely available to look at . Hence all the unwarranted mentions of it. 

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CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2.  It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.

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Models have been shite with genesis all season... I've never seen them so suppressed. You'd think we haven't had a 14-4-1 by August 27th

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This Euro storm appears to be the same one the GFS has in the above post.  Definitely now one to watch.  Looks like it should be coming off Africa sometime this weekend.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh240-240.gif

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c021a83e0f0e449858f3dad81603f8a7.jpg

Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Laura, located inland over northwestern Louisiana.

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are
not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple
of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over
the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the
central and then western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto


.

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7 hours ago, Amped said:

CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2.  It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.

GFS closes off a 700mb and 850mb low.  For some reason it doesn't develop until the Yucatan.   Any shear is out of the northeast.

ICON CMC and UKMET are all more bullish on this system than the GFS and Euro.      I think there's a chance  every model is too conservative on this wave.  It could easily be a major hurricane by the central Caribbean given the conditions.   

2hbrqrg.png

 

 

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This is interesting... wave going to break in 2

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas.  Future 
advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the 
eastern Caribbean islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this 
wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central 
Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it 
is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.  
However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly 
stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several 
days, and some development of this system is possible early next 
week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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There appears to be a high likelihood of a storm targeting the east coast in about 10-14 days. 

Too early to say if the steering pattern would allow for impacts but the trend this summer has been for increased ridging especially over NE Canada and we've already had 2 systems impact the northeast.

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That strong ridge over top... yikes. That's gonna drive that storm straight into New England. 384 hours out but still, like @SnoSki14 said, I'm a little more worried than usual for an EC impact

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10 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

First northeast impact, tropical storm, Second northeast impact, hurricane, Third northeast impact, Major hurricane? Sounds like 2020 to me!

Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken.  We’ll see in a couple weeks? 

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31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken.  We’ll see in a couple weeks? 

The signal is there for a late recurve, and it's a bit more concerning than usual. 

I feel like I've seen this before. Not sure if this is the GFS picking up on extra-tropical transition and a spreading out of the wind field? Or if this is just typical of pole-ward moving hurricanes gradually weakening under decreasing SST.

hCbMO7I.gif

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