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About harrisale

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Guelph, ON
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    Environmental Sciences graduate, majoring in Earth and Atmospheric Science.

    I studied hydrology, fluvial processes, geology with meteorology on the side. Work as research technician in agricultural science.

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  1. I feel as though overall, this storm will appear to be overhyped and contribute to 'boy who cried wolf' complacency in the long run (the 'nuclear hurricane' headlines were particularly irresponsible). Now that's not to say Irma wasn't a beast, or won't leave mass destruction in her wake; one look at the Caribbean islands should be enough to retire this storm name. Damage in FL will be extensive also, although perhaps nowhere near some of the doomsday scenarios we were seeing 3-4 days out from landfall. Unfortunately, the storm triggered one of the largest mass evacuations in US history. In the end, it will appear to many in the evac zones (particularly in E FL) that evacuating was unnecessary. As forecasters, we all know it was the right call to leave, but try explaining to the general public the concept of 3 day hurricane forecast track error. States of emergency in the Carolinas will also likely seem unnecessary in the end. Hopefully Floridians will still follow evacuation orders next time a large system approaches. With Irma this year, and Matthew last, that's two large hurricane near misses for Miami in two years. I can understand not wanting to pack up the car and board up the windows a third time. Irma didn't miss by much. An earlier turn northwest by a few hundred miles, and there was the legitimate possibility of a Cat 5 heading to the east coast of Florida. Fortunately not this time. And with that, I'm taking a break from the models and boards for a few days. Been fun tracking as usual.
  2. 10:40 p.m. The U.S. Consulate General in Curaçao says it believes about 6,000 Americans are stranded on St. Martin after Hurricane Irma leveled the Caribbean island. http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/celebrities/article171693557.html edit: that actually is the right link ^^ must have been filed under the wrong category by the Herald. Either way it's an AP article.
  3. Caicos islands currently getting a lashing. Grand Turk, home to Cockburn Town, has a population of 3,700. It seems to have been in the northern eyewall for a while, never quite made it into the eye due to the storms NNW movement.
  4. Off topic but is it legitimate to be giving away hi-res EURO data for free? Might want to keep this one under wraps.
  5. Some nice outflow right now in all quadrants, maybe lacking slightly in the NW.
  6. Fully agree with your estimate of position of lowest pressure. I think we'll really see Irma go for the hail mary sub-900mb after the north turn begins, and she pulls just far enough away from Cuba to avoid any effects of land interaction and dry air ingestion. And the water between FL and Cuba is toasty enough to do it.
  7. NHC forecast didn't have Irma as a major until Sunday 8am... I would expect to see some changes to that.
  8. Storm is in a really nice low shear environment right now. Should definitely seeing some near-term strengthening.
  9. If Irma ends up the size that it's progged to be there are going to be some serious storm surge impacts. Looks likely we can write off any land interaction with Hispaniola or Cuba at this point. This storm will have uninterrupted 27C+ waters right up to Florida to work with.
  10. Not saying you're wrong but the storm is definitely moving into an area of mid-level dry air, as mentioned by NHC, which may hold back Irma from strengthening and possibly weakening after this ERC.
  11. Vis look at Irma this morning. Looks as though some drier air has wrapped around the north side of the circulation.
  12. Atlantic ridge seems to be a lock at this point. Going to need something big to change for this to be a fish.
  13. Don't focus on the red coloration. That depth is far beyond overkill for a non-stalled hurricane and Oceanic Heat Potential. Anything over 70 kJ^-3 is potent for a moving hurricane. The 26° isotherm is very deep from 50W all the way to the Gulf Stream. Great point.
  14. At least we're not seeing any ridiculous TCHP values along the progged EURO storm track at the moment, especially in the Gulf due to Harvey. Of course this could change 7-10 days out.
  15. Still a good chance this storm interacts significantly with Hispaniola or Cuba which could reduce some impacts in the possibility of a US landfall. Again... still too far out to know for sure but plenty to watch over the next week or so.