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About harrisale

  • Rank
    Canadian Weather Geek

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Guelph, ON
  • Interests
    Environmental Sciences graduate, majoring in Earth and Atmospheric Science.

    I studied hydrology, fluvial processes, geology with meteorology on the side. Work as research technician in agricultural science.

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  1. April 2018 General Discussion

    Still haven’t put the long johns away. Picked up about 0.5” today. What month is it again?
  2. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Had freezing rain here from about 7pm-midnight. A solid 5-7mm glaze but seems like just below the threshold for any signifanct damage. This was a close one. Our temperature actually stalled out at +0.1C from midnight through until 7am. A couple miles north and I’m sure there’s tons more ice. Orangeville (about 30mins NE of here) still reporting below freezing temps, I’d be interested to see how much accretion ended up there. Now for the big melt. Sleet/rain combo is basically solid. Lots of road and sidewalk flooding abound. And it’s snowing right now. Lots going on with this system!
  3. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Official 8 PM observation was -1.4C here. Moderate freezing rain on going for about the last hour and a half so. Gusting well over 60 km/h at times. The trees are starting to get that crackle.
  4. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    NOAA winter probabilistic guidance had us in the 95% likelihood zone for >.25” of ice as of Friday night. I guess this storm turned out to be the odd 5%? Perhaps the arctic high was much stronger than modelled.
  5. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    ZR has been a total bust here so far save for about one hour at the start of the event. Even with very warm 850 temperatures it’s actually been snowing (albeit pixie dust) here for the last hour or so with some IP mixed in. Don’t want to speak too soon but I feel as though Environment Canada jumped the gun a little bit with the ‘potentially historic ice storm’ wording. Should have waited until the event was underway.
  6. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    I suspect all of this sleet on the ground may actually contribute to the freezing rain threat tomorrow. Having a thick layer of ice on the ground may aid in keeping surface temperatures below freezing for longer. About 2.0” of sleet on the ground here.
  7. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Similar story here. About 0.5” of pellets down now. Winds are still quite gusty. Judging by looking at the Hydro One outage map there has been more sustained freezing rain in the London to Woodstock area.
  8. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    I’m now getting a kitchen sink ZR/IP/SN mix. I have a feeling there will be a lot of p-type changes today so I’ll refrain from posting too many updates unless things really go south. Good luck to those under the gun!
  9. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Just flipped to below freezing here within the last hour. Currently -0.8C and freezing rain. Not seeing any pellets coming down unfortunately. Winds are already a bit stronger than I’d like as well. Local obs station reporting gusts over 50 km/h.
  10. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Starting to get a tad nervous now about ice in my backyard. I’ve never seen this kind of wording from Environment Canada before. “Potentially historic ice storm”. Yikes... Sounds like it could be a doozy tomorrow; for once I’m hoping it’s a bust. “ 10:36 PM EDT Friday 13 April 2018 Freezing rain warning in effect for: Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County Significant ice build-up due to freezing rain is expected or occurring. A potentially historic ice storm expected this weekend. Widespread power outages possible. A moisture laden low pressure area over the Central Plains States will amble towards the lower Great Lakes this weekend. As the low approaches, brisk northeasterly winds will pump in cold Arctic air, forcing temperatures below freezing Saturday morning. Any current rain will become widespread Saturday morning then quickly change to freezing rain. It will likely persist into Saturday evening. Some ice pellets may be mixed in at times. A lull in precipitation is likely Saturday evening with patchy freezing drizzle expected. However, as the low approaches Saturday night, freezing rain will likely become widespread again and persist most of Sunday before changing over to rain. Significant rain may fall late Sunday and Sunday night creating localized flooding. Ice build up to 25 mm appears likely across the region by late Sunday. It may exceed that in some locales. Strong winds gusting to 70 km/h are also expected Saturday night and Sunday. The combination of excessive ice accumulations and strong winds may result in widespread power outages due to fallen trees and power lines.”
  11. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Just for posterity... 18z RGEM really went off the deep end on the freezing rain. Right in my backyard too. Even half of this would be trouble. Luckily the GFS and NAM are a bit more conservative on the ZR amounts and a tad south with the placement also. Fingers crossed... there’s a lot of nice trees in my neighbourhood.
  12. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Freezing rain warnings now issued by Environment Canada. Their warning swath actually appears to be a bit north of the current model progs for the heaviest ZR zones so we’ll see where the boundary sets up. Personally I would have also included the Woodstock area in the warning.
  13. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    Ice event beginning to look a bit more likely now. I think the question now is how much will be IP vs. ZR.
  14. April 12th-15th Winter Storm

    GFS went a tad north with the ice zone as well. A bit surprised that Environment Canada is raising the profile of this event so early by including language for a 'potential ice storm' in the special weather statement. Seen many an ice event on the models fail to pan out, especially since we are over 90 hours from the main event. We all know these events even bust day-of.
  15. April 5-7 One-Two Punch Snow Systems

    Getting some borderline heavy snow at the moment. Most surfaces except for main roads covered. Impressive rates for the time of year. About 0.5” down so far.