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About harrisale

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    Canadian Weather Geek

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Oakville, ON
  • Interests
    Environmental Sciences graduate, majoring in Earth and Atmospheric Science.

    I studied hydrology, fluvial processes, geology with meteorology on the side. Work as research technician in agricultural science.

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  1. Thinking I'll actually squeeze out a dusting to 0.5" tomorrow morning. Precip shield looks a bit bigger on the short-range models so we'll just get scraped. lol big call.
  2. Yeah I'll hold out until tomorrow morning. Need this current system to clear out the way and get some sampling on the Pac energy before making any final calls.
  3. Going to be fun to watch. A few tenths of a degree or some evap cooling might make the difference. I'm just in town for 2 weeks visiting the family but according to the parents about 29cm on the season so far. Majority from the early Nov event. Moved to YVR a year ago so hoping for some action while I'm here!
  4. Ah maybe 4" was too bullish on the high side. Shouldn't have bit on a single NAM run. It's backed off a bit now. Actually a pretty close call for a YYZ storm but the phase didn't quite happen in time.
  5. FWIW the system tonight into tomorrow has trended a lot snowier for YYZ. If the NAM is to be believed we could have a nice little 2-4” on the ground by Sunday.
  6. Probably not going to get any reliable sampling on that wave until about Sunday. I'll hold onto my hat until then but that leaves plenty of time for dreamin'.
  7. Dorian will be somewhat slower moving than Juan and I believe flooding will be a larger problem with this storm. Juan only dropped about 50mm precip in parts of NS while it looks like Dorian may dump 90+mm in some areas. Winds may be less than Juan but will still pack a punch. The core of the storm is looking surprisingly good today and the HWRF has the cyclone deepening into the mid-940's prior to landfall. As the cyclone transitions to ET we will also see quite a large windfield.
  8. I was lucky and scored mood flakes for most of the morning into the afternoon. Moderately sized puffballs for an hour or so with no wind; very snow globe-esque. I'll take it considering we'll be back to rain in 48 hours. Merry Xmas to all!
  9. I'll bite on some Xmas snow. I'm back in the region for the holidays; going to school on the west coast and the storm tracking just isn't the same! End of the NAM now showing the 23-24th wave with some pre-Xmas flakes. Hard to say if it will be White Christmas material but considering the bare ground now I'd take it. Beyond that, looks like a system around the 27-28th and one around New Year's as well. The former seems like a rainer, too far north with the track. But the latter can hopefully plough into some nice cold air (and northern snow pack) brought down by the first system and spread some wealth. Active period at least.
  10. I suspect they will wait at least another 24 hours before modifying the public forecast to reflect this... if indeed this 'trend' remains on the models. Not enough confidence in a stall just yet to change the cone so dramatically. Could send a confusing message. Though they did add more of a west turn to the cone once the storm moves inland.
  11. The heat and humidity have just moved in today as the dome shifts NE. Looking at one of the most pronounced heat waves in at least 3-4 summers that I can remember. Some models were pushing nation-wide record humidex values as far north as Ottawa (over 110F!) for Sunday.
  12. Some light thunderstorms/showers today with the frontal passage have ushered in much cooler and dry air for the evening. No significant thunderstorms though yet this season around these parts.
  13. Still some several thousand customers without power today from yesterday’s wind event. At the peak of the outages, Hydro One reported 371,000 customers without power and Toronto Hydro reported 68,000 customers out. So that’s 439,000 total customers lost power in the storm in Ontario alone. Probably close to 1 million people! Unfortunately there was also one death from a fallen tree and a pedestrian was hit by a car in an area that had lost power and the streetlights were out. Very fascinating system yesterday, a fun one to watch unfold. In my town, you can see shingles off many roofs, and some of the older big trees didn’t make it through. I was biking home from work during the storm and was blown over twice. Also was blasted in the face a few times by sand and other debris flying around. Now imagine if the trees had been leafed out!
  14. Certainly the biggest non-thunderstorm wind event in quite some time. Hydro One reporting over 193,000 customers without power in Ontario. And of course that doesn’t even include Toronto or most of the GTA. Not much hype that’s true. Honestly I didn’t even notice the models showing an event of this magnitude until this morning. edit: Flight operations (in and out) now fully suspended at YYZ.
  15. Just read that the 118 km/h gust (73 mph) gust at YYZ was the highest recorded since 1964. That’s 54 years ago! Impressive stuff out there.