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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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34 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head

Well... the group of us will watch:lol: 

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We've got an orange and two lemons now.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the 
Lesser Antilles.  Regardless of development, this system will likely 
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of 
the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system is expected 
to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development 
is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States early next week.  Additional subsequent 
development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward 
across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

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1 hour ago, BYG Jacob said:

Yes, and no cheeky, "well, we'll see!" from you either. We're going to have a hyperactive season. Get it into your head

We're already having a hyperactive season.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Zero doubt in my mind. I guess “we’ll see” :lol: 

 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Well... the group of us will watch:lol: 

See the source image

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

We've got an orange and two lemons now.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the 
Lesser Antilles.  Regardless of development, this system will likely 
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of 
the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system is expected 
to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development 
is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States early next week.  Additional subsequent 
development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward 
across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

And yet the models don't show anything 

Smfh

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We've got an orange and two lemons now.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the 
Lesser Antilles.  Regardless of development, this system will likely 
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of 
the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system is expected 
to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development 
is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States early next week.  Additional subsequent 
development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward 
across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

Not  much for  peak season with only  sporadic  model support  for  any of them. We  have yet to have a  burst  of  storm formation where  3 or  4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence  of a  burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like  a dried  up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may  form from that  thing  in the  gom as it scoots  out to sea but this  picture  is  less than impressive  for  peak. If this  is  MJO 2-3 yikes

202008292040.gif

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Not  much for  peak season with only  sporadic  model support  for  any of them. We  have yet to have a  burst  of  storm formation where  3 or  4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence  of a  burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like  a dried  up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may  form from that  thing  in the  gom as it scoots  out to sea but this  picture  is  less than impressive  for  peak. If this  is  MJO 2-3 yikes

 

Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). 

We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September. 

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Not  much for  peak season with only  sporadic  model support  for  any of them. We  have yet to have a  burst  of  storm formation where  3 or  4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence  of a  burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like  a dried  up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may  form from that  thing  in the  gom as it scoots  out to sea but this  picture  is  less than impressive  for  peak. If this  is  MJO 2-3 yikes

202008292040.gif

Weenie doesn't begin to describe you

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35 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

It's august 29th and we might be on the N and O named storms soon but guys...the atlantic is BOONNEE DRYYY

"'Cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door"

A few wise words from my favorite rock-n-roll band. Just remember it ain't over till the fat man sings. ;)

 

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Starting in the next 24 hrs, Models are showing a big plume of moisture  coming north from the Amazon (French Guina, Guyana, Suriname ) into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean.   This should give the AEWs moving through the area a boost during the next 7 days while it lasts.

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3 hours ago, Alfoman said:

Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). 

We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September. 

I sort of scratch my head that in 2020 people have trouble recognizing they are being trolled. 

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Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea...

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development 
of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by 
the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or 
east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of 
the U.S. and then away from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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4 hours ago, yoda said:

Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea...

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development 
of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by 
the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or 
east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of 
the U.S. and then away from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Ummm.....Marco already was a hurricane in the GOM.....before Laura...

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs Para has been consitent with a storm  around this time frame. 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

Euro shows  nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for  peak.

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11 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro shows  nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for  peak.

Who cares 

Models have been struggling so far this season with every storm. Why do you keep repeating yourself?

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13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Well now that ldub23 is on my ignore list we can now get back to tropical weather. :thumbsup:

Just added to my ignore list as well. I’m willing to bet he’s the most ignored user in this board, and if not he definitely should be. 

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At this point we look for signals but what is a bit troubling not only is the East Coast open to a hurricane strike a major ingredient to this scenario is a blocking high showing up in the Canadian Maritimes and its been there quite a few times now in the long range.  I think we need to give it some credibility because up here in the northern latitudes there are definitely hints of changes to a fall like pattern with fairly large mid latitude storms just north of the Canadian border.

Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes.  Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see.  

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png

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Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th?

 

Thanks in advance

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That would be a very weird angle of trajectory to go from the Outer Banks to the Great Lakes. Is this even possible? The Cat 4 strength I’m sure is way overdone. 

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The Caribbean wave has been designated Invest 99L

23043621.gif?0.7137934892377499

2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th?

 

Thanks in advance

We are at 42.1 as of today. The normal is 28.7.

CSU keeps stats for each basin.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Euro shows  nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for  peak.

Yo Pinocchio stop lying You might want to check to Euro again

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